Is Trump doing a good job?

[dualstow]

“I ran the White House pandemic office. Trump closed it.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/ ... story.html

[Kriegsspiel]

Afghan President Ashraf Ghani said Tuesday that he will ask the Trump administration to reconsider its vow to immediately cut $1 billion in aid to Afghanistan because of a political standoff in Kabul. . . a heavy hit for a country that relies on foreign money to pay three-quarters of its expenses.link

Good first step. GTFO of that shithole.

[dualstow]

What’s all this about an Easter plan? Is that a bit early to go back to work?
I’m interested in reading the details.

[vnatale]

What’s all this about an Easter plan? Is that a bit early to go back to work?
I’m interested in reading the details.

I believe in his own words (If I heard them correctly) after a reporter questioned him..."that is only two weeks and nine days from now". As I just wrote that it does not make sense. But then again I was not giving the listening to him my full attention. I was probably also doing something like this in this forum!!!

Vinny

[Tyler]

“I ran the White House pandemic office. Trump closed it.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/ ... story.html

A rebuttal:

"No, the White House didn't 'dissolve' its pandemic response office. I was there."

(The original was in the Washington Post, but here's a reprint with no paywall.)
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/artic ... 42683.html

[dualstow]

Thank you, Tyler! I will read tonight. I read it. Fair enough, I’m convinced. Sometimes I treat Real Clear Politics the way some of you view CNN, but I can accept his premise that it was a political jab.

This is frustrating. I was beaten over the head with that original story, the accusation, by news show guest after news show guest, not just the original article. And now I believe it’s specious. I’m glad I don’t get too worked up about politics, but it’s tiring.

[flyingpylon]

What’s all this about an Easter plan? Is that a bit early to go back to work?
I’m interested in reading the details.

Trump is an eternal optimist, and that comes through in his statements. He said he’d love to have things back open by Easter. Not that the actual plan is to reopen by Easter. But I guess we’ll see.

[Tyler]

What’s all this about an Easter plan? Is that a bit early to go back to work?
I’m interested in reading the details.

My observation is that too many people fall into the fallacy that the whole country must surely be just like the neighborhood outside their own door. Media personalities are not immune, and they often project that the entire country must surely be on the same path as the chaos in New York. And they treat any potential solution as involving equal actions across the entire nation. But it doesn't necessarily work like that. Solutions to problems this big usually come in stages.

I have zero evidence this is the plan, but my educated guess is that the eventual solution will involve continued lockdowns in the major cities with unsustainable outbreaks (NY, SF, etc), while most places that haven't already been overrun will eventually have enough testing (drive-thru, test at home), treatments (hydroxychloroquine), and mitigation strategies (masks, practiced distancing, etc) to safely open up for business. Coastal elites will whine that they're not allowed to leave town and scream that the whole country will soon suffer the same fate. There may even be a few missteps, and people will jump on them as evidence that leadership is being reckless. But they will eventually learn that the US is a big country and most of it will be fine. And citizens demanding lockdown today will eventually demand to be free again.

Now whether that can start by Easter, I have no idea. But I think it could be sooner than you'd think by only listening to people reporting on the very worst situations.

[dualstow]

Whether that turns out to be the plan or not, specific lockdowns for troubled metropoles makes good sense.

[Xan]

What’s all this about an Easter plan? Is that a bit early to go back to work?
I’m interested in reading the details.

My observation is that too many people fall into the fallacy that the whole country must surely be just like the neighborhood outside their own door. Media personalities are not immune, and they often project that the entire country must surely be on the same path as the chaos in New York. And they treat any potential solution as involving equal actions across the entire nation. But it doesn't necessarily work like that. Solutions to problems this big usually come in stages.

I have zero evidence this is the plan, but my educated guess is that the eventual solution will involve continued lockdowns in the major cities with unsustainable outbreaks (NY, SF, etc), while most places that haven't already been overrun will eventually have enough testing (drive-thru, test at home), treatments (hydroxychloroquine), and mitigation strategies (masks, practiced distancing, etc) to safely open up for business. Coastal elites will whine that they're not allowed to leave town and scream that the whole country will soon suffer the same fate. There may even be a few missteps, and people will jump on them as evidence that leadership is being reckless. But they will eventually learn that the US is a big country and most of it will be fine. And citizens demanding lockdown today will eventually demand to be free again.

Now whether that can start by Easter, I have no idea. But I think it could be sooner than you'd think by only listening to people reporting on the very worst situations.

I thought Governor Abbott handled this particularly well by avoiding statewide orders, and leaving it up to local authorities. Something like 200 of the 254 counties in Texas have zero cases. Lockdown doesn't make sense there.

[Tyler]

Whether that turns out to be the plan or not, specific lockdowns for troubled metropoles makes good sense.

Yep. BTW, some states are already catching on and placing restrictions on travelers from New York City. I expect more will get on board soon enough and potentially even forbid travel from certain cities altogether.

DeSantis’ Tuesday order requires that anyone traveling from New York City to Florida or who has traveled from New York City in the last three weeks must self-isolate and report the contacts they’ve had with anyone in the state. Violating the order is a second-degree misdemeanor, and could result in a $500 fine or 60 days in jail.
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/corona ... 71451.html

[dualstow]

Are the airports still open? If so, why? Distancing is impossible, and the risk of bringing the virus elsewhere is high.

Open, but...
https://twitter.com/LoveAlwaysAvi/statu ... 14848?s=20

[ochotona]

Crane County, TX, 2017 population 4,740, has a COVID-19 case. Probably that person's family, also. Friends, co-workers. But they are not known to the health system.

1/4740 = 0.02%

If projected over 327 million US population, that would scale to 65,400 cases, about where we are (or will be in a few hours or a day).

I don't think there are "untouched" places in the USA where an Easter restart would be a good idea. If not Crane County, then where? That horse left the barn weeks ago.

There are nine churches in the county seat, the city of Crane. If they got together on Easter, I can imagine 2-4 weeks post-Easter there would be a number of new cases.

[Libertarian666]

Crane County, TX, 2017 population 4,740, has a COVID-19 case. Probably that person's family, also. Friends, co-workers. But they are not known to the health system.

1/4740 = 0.02%

If projected over 327 million US population, that would scale to 65,400 cases, about where we are (or will be in a few hours or a day).

I don't think there are "untouched" places in the USA where an Easter restart would be a good idea. If not Crane County, then where? That horse left the barn weeks ago.

There are nine churches in the county seat, the city of Crane. If they got together on Easter, I can imagine 2-4 weeks post-Easter there would be a number of new cases.

Hopkins County (2010 population 35000) also has a confirmed case.
There used to be an uninfected area about 100 miles across in Northeast Texas.
Not any more.

But we still need to restart the economy or we will be headed into a second Great Depression.

[vnatale]

Crane County, TX, 2017 population 4,740, has a COVID-19 case. Probably that person's family, also. Friends, co-workers. But they are not known to the health system.

1/4740 = 0.02%

If projected over 327 million US population, that would scale to 65,400 cases, about where we are (or will be in a few hours or a day).

I don't think there are "untouched" places in the USA where an Easter restart would be a good idea. If not Crane County, then where? That horse left the barn weeks ago.

There are nine churches in the county seat, the city of Crane. If they got together on Easter, I can imagine 2-4 weeks post-Easter there would be a number of new cases.

Hopkins County (2010 population 35000) also has a confirmed case.
There used to be an uninfected area about 100 miles across in Northeast Texas.
Not any more.

But we still need to restart the economy or we will be headed into a second Great Depression.

My county of 725 square miles and a population of about 71,000 (the least populated county in the Massachusetts mainland) had two cases as of a few days ago.

And, for future information this is the political orientation of the county (I am one of the Unenrolled):

Capture.JPG (28.58 KiB) Viewed 5285 times

Vinny

[ochotona]

Hopkins County (2010 population 35000) also has a confirmed case.
There used to be an uninfected area about 100 miles across in Northeast Texas.
Not any more.

But we still need to restart the economy or we will be headed into a second Great Depression.

Let's unpack that...

1. Stay shut down totally for duration > get 2nd Great Depression

2. Shut down temporarily > reopen > repeating waves of exponential growth > get to 2nd Great Depression somewhat more slowly but more deaths than in case 1

Honestly, if we reopen and we get anything near the worst-case number of deaths and ICU stays, and the hospitals collapse, and first-responders are taken down, do you really think people will volunteer to go to work, even if Feds allow it? Work is a voluntary activity for employee and employers. I would not.

I'm sure the Management Class and Business owners would be saying, "Hey you (expendable serfs), get back to work! I need to make my numbers!" At some level, many of us who work in companies work for b@stards like that. Workers are expendable... management elite are not.

And I submit, in case two, the vital supply chain is even more endangered... water, electricity, food, fuel... if we get to rampant, uncontrolled spread.

There are time when you're just screwed, and you have to admit it, face up to the new realities, and forge the best (or least worst) plan, and ignore all sunk costs. Clinging to what will not be makes it worse.

I think we're screwed, but we're in the Denial or Bargaining phase of of the Elizabeth Kubler-Ross psychological cycle. It's a 100% human thing to do, but it's not useful.

We're going to see in April / May how awful this gets. I think it will be pretty awful. People have a really hard time internalizing what exponential functions are. Many have never even studied them.

[Libertarian666]

Hopkins County (2010 population 35000) also has a confirmed case.
There used to be an uninfected area about 100 miles across in Northeast Texas.
Not any more.

But we still need to restart the economy or we will be headed into a second Great Depression.

Let's unpack that...

1. Stay shut down totally for duration > get 2nd Great Depression

2. Shut down temporarily > reopen > repeating waves of exponential growth > get to 2nd Great Depression somewhat more slowly but more deaths than in case 1

Honestly, if we reopen and we get anything near the worst-case number of deaths and ICU stays, and the hospitals collapse, and first-responders are taken down, do you really think people will volunteer to go to work, even if Feds allow it? Work is a voluntary activity for employee and employers. I would not.

I'm sure the Management Class and Business owners would be saying, "Hey you (expendable serfs), get back to work! I need to make my numbers!" At some level, many of us who work in companies work for b@stards like that. Workers are expendable... management elite are not.

And I submit, in case two, the vital supply chain is even more endangered... water, electricity, food, fuel... if we get to rampant, uncontrolled spread.

There are time when you're just screwed, and you have to admit it, face up to the new realities, and forge the best (or least worst) plan, and ignore all sunk costs. Clinging to what will not be makes it worse.

I think we're screwed, but we're in the Denial or Bargaining phase of of the Elizabeth Kubler-Ross psychological cycle. It's a 100% human thing to do, but it's not useful.

I think we will be getting better news in the next few days, so this is unlikely to occur.
And I'm usually the doomiest person in the room.

[Tyler]

I don't think there are "untouched" places in the USA where an Easter restart would be a good idea. If not Crane County, then where? That horse left the barn weeks ago.

You don't have to be completely virus-free to avoid a shutdown with widespread masks, testing, and treatments. It will take time, but it will come.

[Libertarian666]

I think we will be getting better news in the next few days

Care to elaborate?

Treatments that work in at least enough cases to keep the hospitals from being overrun.

[ochotona]

I think we will be getting better news in the next few days

Care to elaborate?

Treatments that work in at least enough cases to keep the hospitals from being overrun.

Here's the best metric concerning this idea. It's not a news article that pops up from some click-baity site promising some miracle cure...

The metric is *** check to see if hospitals are actually being overrun ***

[vnatale]

The metric is *** check to see if hospitals are actually being overrun ***

Do you doubt that they are? I believe WiseOne confirmed that.

Speaking of which...when is the last time any of us have heard from her? Yesterday? Day before? I could look it up but it makes the point that my perception of time lately has gotten extremely warped. And, since I have no routines yesterday for a while I did not know what day it was. Today I thought was Wednesday. I picked up a newspaper from the floor and it said Wednesday. But I'd not gone out to get today's paper. So was it really Thursday today and I'd somehow totally missed Wednesday? But today is an exercise day so it must be Wednesday. The confusion ended when I'd realized that the paper I'd picked up, which I had thought was yesterday's paper, turned out to be LAST Wednesday's paper.

Vinny

[ochotona]

The metric is *** check to see if hospitals are actually being overrun ***

Do you doubt that they are? I believe WiseOne confirmed that.

I don't doubt at all what is being reported out of NYC. I just want to kick the shins of those who point to unproven, untested schemes, or alpha-stage technologies, and they say, "Oh look we're saved, everyone back to normal".

[vnatale]

The metric is *** check to see if hospitals are actually being overrun ***

Do you doubt that they are? I believe WiseOne confirmed that.

Speaking of which...when is the last time any of us have heard from her? Yesterday? Day before? I could look it up but it makes the point that my perception of time lately has gotten extremely warped. And, since I have no routines yesterday for a while I did not know what day it was. Today I thought was Wednesday. I picked up a newspaper from the floor and it said Wednesday. But I'd not gone out to get today's paper. So was it really Thursday today and I'd somehow totally missed Wednesday? But today is an exercise day so it must be Wednesday. The confusion ended when I'd realized that the paper I'd picked up, which I had thought was yesterday's paper, turned out to be LAST Wednesday's paper.

Vinny

You can check her profile under 'members' at the top right of the toolbar to see when her last post was. She's prob just swamped at work.

I realized that when I'd written the above...but I used it as an entre to describe the affects on me from being home day after day which are now blurring with no established routines and no sports going on - either that I participate in or that I watch.

Vinny

[vnatale]

Analysis: Trump struggles to adjust to crisis presidency

https://apnews.com/5dd6b30e03542b435e2716e3e3a483e4



Vinny

[vnatale]

The metric is *** check to see if hospitals are actually being overrun ***

Do you doubt that they are? I believe WiseOne confirmed that.

Speaking of which...when is the last time any of us have heard from her? Yesterday? Day before? I could look it up but it makes the point that my perception of time lately has gotten extremely warped. And, since I have no routines yesterday for a while I did not know what day it was. Today I thought was Wednesday. I picked up a newspaper from the floor and it said Wednesday. But I'd not gone out to get today's paper. So was it really Thursday today and I'd somehow totally missed Wednesday? But today is an exercise day so it must be Wednesday. The confusion ended when I'd realized that the paper I'd picked up, which I had thought was yesterday's paper, turned out to be LAST Wednesday's paper.

Vinny

You can check her profile under 'members' at the top right of the toolbar to see when her last post was. She's prob just swamped at work.

I realized that when I'd written the above...but I used it as an entre to describe the affects on me from being home day after day which are now blurring with no established routines and no sports going on - either that I participate in or that I watch.

Vinny

And she just posted 45 mins ago in another thread, which I did not see until after I responded to you.

I did see it prior to seeing yours above and responding to you. So far I believe I've seen two items from her today.

Vinny