Is Trump doing a good job?
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- dualstow
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Re: Is Trump doing a good job?
That’s a good summary.
I have to admit, while I am frustrated by some of Trump’s behavior domestically I like that some of our less friendly fellow nations have to face his unpredictable nature.
I’m pretty sure I read this morning that Obama used to call for an annual count of civilian deaths and that Trump dispensed with that. I’ll try to find the source.
I have to admit, while I am frustrated by some of Trump’s behavior domestically I like that some of our less friendly fellow nations have to face his unpredictable nature.
I’m pretty sure I read this morning that Obama used to call for an annual count of civilian deaths and that Trump dispensed with that. I’ll try to find the source.
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Re: Is Trump doing a good job?
There are all these alarmist reports about Iran striking soft targets.
Short of a cyberattack, I don’t think they’re going to chance that. If they choose to do something physical instead of taking a step back, I bet it will be a military target.
Short of a cyberattack, I don’t think they’re going to chance that. If they choose to do something physical instead of taking a step back, I bet it will be a military target.
Re: Is Trump doing a good job?
Do you have a source or someone you regularly follow on any of this stuff? Also, when there is “stuff we don’t know,” do you make some assumptions as to how much this would tilt us toward or away from escalating a war?Kbg wrote: ↑Mon Jan 06, 2020 3:48 pm What we just saw (are seeing) was/is a classic escalation cycle...eventually someone blinks or you have a war.
Let's just ignore "who started it" recently and for the past several decades. History matters of course to both sides. The current cycle went something like this:
Trump/Bolton initiate by walking from the nuclear deal and uping sanctions
"Mysterious" oil tanker attacks
Iran shoots down a Global Hawk (this isn't a little cheap drone, it's on the order of a couple hundred mil...frankly I was shocked we did nothing at that point)
US tightens the economic screws down more
Iran takes out 1/2 of Saudi oil production
US/Saudi Arabia Blink???
Iranian back militia mortars US airbase, kills 1 wounds 4
US bombs several Iranian backed Iraqi militia sites
Iranian backed militias overrun the US embassy
US takes out Soleimani and head of Iranian backed militia that overran embassy
Undoubtedly there is other stuff going on in the background none of us know about that may have been a factor(s) as well.
In any event, Iran blinks or raises the ante or both sides decide this is getting out of control and they both need to step away with some face saving for both sides.
Love or hate Trump, the theory behind this type of thing says unpredictability is a good asset to have. Via Twitter and assuming Trump doesn't blink, the US has said, go a head meet our call, we are raising again afterward if you do.
If we go to war in a major way, morality doesn't matter. The winner gets to set the future terms.
It would be nice if both sides would just step away, that's what I'm hoping for.
Personally, I think Iran pushed things too far and thought Trump blinked. That was certainly my read. My guess is shortly after the US thought Iran had pushed things too far old fashioned international power calculations kicked in. And I'm sure there are Iranians out there who think the same thing about breaking the nuclear deal and slapping on hard sanctions.
(PS...I likely got some events out of sequence feel free to add/correct...substantively it doesn't change the main point that we are in an escalation cycle clear as day)
- dualstow
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Re: Is Trump doing a good job?
Another thing on the list of stuff we do know:
The occasional hostage.
- Iranian-American Jason Rezian (sp?)
- The Chinese man studying Iranian culture.
The occasional hostage.
- Iranian-American Jason Rezian (sp?)
- The Chinese man studying Iranian culture.
Re: Is Trump doing a good job?
I do have a source for stuff like this but it is part of a closed group I belong to. The source is available to the public at a pretty high cost but I get it for free with the expectation that those who are part of the freebie group make comments/point out errors or if there is disagreement with an assessment or fact. A form of crowd sourcing if you will. Actually, I don't really follow current events as so much of what one reads is utter crap made for selling news. I pretty much despise US news venues of any kind because they are just awful.moda0306 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 06, 2020 6:26 pmDo you have a source or someone you regularly follow on any of this stuff? Also, when there is “stuff we don’t know,” do you make some assumptions as to how much this would tilt us toward or away from escalating a war?Kbg wrote: ↑Mon Jan 06, 2020 3:48 pm What we just saw (are seeing) was/is a classic escalation cycle...eventually someone blinks or you have a war.
Let's just ignore "who started it" recently and for the past several decades. History matters of course to both sides. The current cycle went something like this:
Trump/Bolton initiate by walking from the nuclear deal and uping sanctions
"Mysterious" oil tanker attacks
Iran shoots down a Global Hawk (this isn't a little cheap drone, it's on the order of a couple hundred mil...frankly I was shocked we did nothing at that point)
US tightens the economic screws down more
Iran takes out 1/2 of Saudi oil production
US/Saudi Arabia Blink???
Iranian back militia mortars US airbase, kills 1 wounds 4
US bombs several Iranian backed Iraqi militia sites
Iranian backed militias overrun the US embassy
US takes out Soleimani and head of Iranian backed militia that overran embassy
Undoubtedly there is other stuff going on in the background none of us know about that may have been a factor(s) as well.
In any event, Iran blinks or raises the ante or both sides decide this is getting out of control and they both need to step away with some face saving for both sides.
Love or hate Trump, the theory behind this type of thing says unpredictability is a good asset to have. Via Twitter and assuming Trump doesn't blink, the US has said, go a head meet our call, we are raising again afterward if you do.
If we go to war in a major way, morality doesn't matter. The winner gets to set the future terms.
It would be nice if both sides would just step away, that's what I'm hoping for.
Personally, I think Iran pushed things too far and thought Trump blinked. That was certainly my read. My guess is shortly after the US thought Iran had pushed things too far old fashioned international power calculations kicked in. And I'm sure there are Iranians out there who think the same thing about breaking the nuclear deal and slapping on hard sanctions.
(PS...I likely got some events out of sequence feel free to add/correct...substantively it doesn't change the main point that we are in an escalation cycle clear as day)
However, it is pretty tough to shut out the world and I have enough nose and experience in these types of things that I know when something is serious vs. hyped up news designed to sell commercials. Following events was pretty much my profession for a long time and it isn't something that interests me enough anymore to use my personal spare time on it. If I think something is serious I start to pay attention, but if you will note by what I wrote above I mainly look for the facts of what happened. As evidenced, by several comments in this thread people tend to lead with their opinions and then try to frame what happened inside of their pre-decided opinion/world view.
Re: Is Trump doing a good job?
What’s the source or are you not allowed to say? I’m willing to pay good money for good news.Kbg wrote: ↑Mon Jan 06, 2020 8:19 pmI do have a source for stuff like this but it is part of a closed group I belong to. The source is available to the public at a pretty high cost but I get it for free with the expectation that those who are part of the freebie group make comments/point out errors or if there is disagreement with an assessment or fact. A form of crowd sourcing if you will. Actually, I don't really follow current events as so much of what one reads is utter crap made for selling news. I pretty much despise US news venues of any kind because they are just awful.moda0306 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 06, 2020 6:26 pmDo you have a source or someone you regularly follow on any of this stuff? Also, when there is “stuff we don’t know,” do you make some assumptions as to how much this would tilt us toward or away from escalating a war?Kbg wrote: ↑Mon Jan 06, 2020 3:48 pm What we just saw (are seeing) was/is a classic escalation cycle...eventually someone blinks or you have a war.
Let's just ignore "who started it" recently and for the past several decades. History matters of course to both sides. The current cycle went something like this:
Trump/Bolton initiate by walking from the nuclear deal and uping sanctions
"Mysterious" oil tanker attacks
Iran shoots down a Global Hawk (this isn't a little cheap drone, it's on the order of a couple hundred mil...frankly I was shocked we did nothing at that point)
US tightens the economic screws down more
Iran takes out 1/2 of Saudi oil production
US/Saudi Arabia Blink???
Iranian back militia mortars US airbase, kills 1 wounds 4
US bombs several Iranian backed Iraqi militia sites
Iranian backed militias overrun the US embassy
US takes out Soleimani and head of Iranian backed militia that overran embassy
Undoubtedly there is other stuff going on in the background none of us know about that may have been a factor(s) as well.
In any event, Iran blinks or raises the ante or both sides decide this is getting out of control and they both need to step away with some face saving for both sides.
Love or hate Trump, the theory behind this type of thing says unpredictability is a good asset to have. Via Twitter and assuming Trump doesn't blink, the US has said, go a head meet our call, we are raising again afterward if you do.
If we go to war in a major way, morality doesn't matter. The winner gets to set the future terms.
It would be nice if both sides would just step away, that's what I'm hoping for.
Personally, I think Iran pushed things too far and thought Trump blinked. That was certainly my read. My guess is shortly after the US thought Iran had pushed things too far old fashioned international power calculations kicked in. And I'm sure there are Iranians out there who think the same thing about breaking the nuclear deal and slapping on hard sanctions.
(PS...I likely got some events out of sequence feel free to add/correct...substantively it doesn't change the main point that we are in an escalation cycle clear as day)
However, it is pretty tough to shut out the world and I have enough nose and experience in these types of things that I know when something is serious vs. hyped up news designed to sell commercials. Following events was pretty much my profession for a long time and it isn't something that interests me enough anymore to use my personal spare time on it. If I think something is serious I start to pay attention, but if you will note by what I wrote above I mainly look for the facts of what happened. As evidenced, by several comments in this thread people tend to lead with their opinions and then try to frame what happened inside of their pre-decided opinion/world view.
Re: Is Trump doing a good job?
I think you misunderstood the point I was making. I’m not saying that made him an ally, and even if I was I wasn’t talking about ISIS. I was talking about the Shia (ISIS is Sunni) militias that actually opposed the US and fought us. I should have been more clear on that. These are the group 1) responsible for the largest number of Shia-caused American deaths that make up the “hundreds to thousands” and 2) Soleimani opposed these groups in favor of other more pro-American Shia groups.dualstow wrote: ↑Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:16 pmI'm fifteen minutes in (EDIT: I heard it in full) and, I don't know, not really impressed. Just because Soleimani also fought ISIS at the same time, that doesn't make us allies. He is responsible for American deaths, hundreds of them, hence this cover from an antiwar, liberal British magazine.moda0306 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2020 6:46 pm Scott Horton’s my go-to on this stuff. He’s leagues better than any shithead Iran hawk New-Con or namby-pamby selectively anti-war (except when Obama does it) liberal. Here’s interview with him on the topic.
https://hwcdn.libsyn.com/p/b/1/2/b12917 ... ccfefbc470
The biggest contentions he’d have with the standard narrative is that “Soleimani is responsible for hundreds of American deaths.” He was actually working in favor of Shiite factions that were more pro-American, fighting against anti-American pan-Arab nationalists...
Also, he talks like a stoner.
sol-bedfellows.png
That said, I think Iran’s opposition to ISIS is a pretty big reason to hesitate to escalate tensions with them.
And Horton could be wrong about all that, but he comes with a wealth of facts and sources that the articles I’ve read that quote the “Soleimani killed hundreds of Americans or more” do. The only source I’ve seen on that is the Pentagon, per a WaPo article I believe, and I usually don’t trust the Pentagon as a source. Even if they’re telling the truth, they’re usually leaving out a lot of context that would be a threat to their position.
And yes he sounds like a pothead. However I’ve become disillusioned with folks in the punditry who lean on their ability to sound articulate and smart without actually knowing anything. Now I trust potheads more than British accents. My political spirit animal is Doug Stanhope and pothead would be a step up for him.
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Re: Is Trump doing a good job?
My comment wasn't in response to anything to you wrote, really, but to Horton's repeated statement, with incredulous tone, that we were fighting for Soleimani's side at one time. While true, it just didn't explain away the damage he has also done to us.moda0306 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 07, 2020 10:18 amI think you misunderstood the point I was making. I’m not saying that made him an ally, and even if I was I wasn’t talking about ISIS. I was talking about the Shia (ISIS is Sunni) militias that actually opposed the US and fought us. I should have been more clear on that. These are the group 1) responsible for the largest number of Shia-caused American deaths that make up the “hundreds to thousands” and 2) Soleimani opposed these groups in favor of other more pro-American Shia groups.
...
But I agree, Horton brings a ton of facts.
It's so funny that you invoked Doug Stanhope. That's specifically who I was picturing while listening to the show!And yes he sounds like a pothead. However I’ve become disillusioned with folks in the punditry who lean on their ability to sound articulate and smart without actually knowing anything. Now I trust potheads more than British accents. My political spirit animal is Doug Stanhope and pothead would be a step up for him.
Re: Is Trump doing a good job?
Some things are simple...the invasion in 2002 did "break" Iraq and removed the existing Sunni dominated power structure in Iraq. Iraq's Shia majority and Iran have been the benefactors primarily of the US invasion to the Sunni world's great chagrin.
Sunni's were killing US servicemen in the north of Iraq, Shia in the south and somewhere around Baghdad it was both.
If you think we have or ever had any allies over there other than the Kurds (who really need us more than like us), you know nothing about the situation.
I try not be cynical but in that part of the world internationally and internally, there aren't "sides" that anyone adheres to. The culture, necessarily so, is all about figuring out who is the strongest now, how can that fact help "me" now. And you can bet your life on the fact that as soon as the power equation changes everyone is going to adapt to the new read/reality of things.
As Americans I think a lot of people grossly underestimate the value of civil discourse, compromise and the rule of law. When you don't have that, politics is literally a blood sport.
Sunni's were killing US servicemen in the north of Iraq, Shia in the south and somewhere around Baghdad it was both.
If you think we have or ever had any allies over there other than the Kurds (who really need us more than like us), you know nothing about the situation.
I try not be cynical but in that part of the world internationally and internally, there aren't "sides" that anyone adheres to. The culture, necessarily so, is all about figuring out who is the strongest now, how can that fact help "me" now. And you can bet your life on the fact that as soon as the power equation changes everyone is going to adapt to the new read/reality of things.
As Americans I think a lot of people grossly underestimate the value of civil discourse, compromise and the rule of law. When you don't have that, politics is literally a blood sport.
- dualstow
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Re: Is Trump doing a good job?
At the same time, what I would add to paragraph one is that concessions are often viewed as weakness, which really complicates things when you are willing to compromise.Kbg wrote: ↑Tue Jan 07, 2020 11:22 am I try not be cynical but in that part of the world internationally and internally, there aren't "sides" that anyone adheres to. The culture, necessarily so, is all about figuring out who is the strongest now, how can that fact help "me" now. And you can bet your life on the fact that as soon as the power equation changes everyone is going to adapt to the new read/reality of things.
As Americans I think a lot of people grossly underestimate the value of civil discourse, compromise and the rule of law. When you don't have that, politics is literally a blood sport.
Re: Is Trump doing a good job?
Horton leans ancap, so I doubt he ever sees any country as a legitimate “ally.” I think he’s just accurately describing the role of Iran in Iraq considering who we were also supporting.
Further, here’s another good podcast on the topic. And the guy doesn’t sound like a pothead... just a touch of cotton mouth or a bad mic.
https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/jacobi ... e/66387588
Though I’d recommend the whole thing, If you fast forward to the 27 minute mark, this guy lays out in mostly similar fashion the accounting of the death toll in Iraq.
1) Vast majority were from Sunni, who Iran was fighting (doesn’t make them good or an “ally” but worth mentioning when ratcheting up war).
2) A few hundred were from Shia forces, which DoD accounts under Soleimani, but were Mahdi Army guys that had nothing to do with Soleimani/Iran.
There are other really good gems in there.
The lies are already being spun for our next war. I’m amazed people believe anything out of DoD or the Whitehouse right now.
Further, here’s another good podcast on the topic. And the guy doesn’t sound like a pothead... just a touch of cotton mouth or a bad mic.
https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/jacobi ... e/66387588
Though I’d recommend the whole thing, If you fast forward to the 27 minute mark, this guy lays out in mostly similar fashion the accounting of the death toll in Iraq.
1) Vast majority were from Sunni, who Iran was fighting (doesn’t make them good or an “ally” but worth mentioning when ratcheting up war).
2) A few hundred were from Shia forces, which DoD accounts under Soleimani, but were Mahdi Army guys that had nothing to do with Soleimani/Iran.
There are other really good gems in there.
The lies are already being spun for our next war. I’m amazed people believe anything out of DoD or the Whitehouse right now.
Re: Is Trump doing a good job?
Facts are good things...take a look at the data yourself.
Iranian caused or Iranian supported American deaths in the hundreds, easy, and accurate.
http://icasualties.org/App/Fatalities?c ... 64&rows=10
Sunni caused American deaths in the thousands also accurate.
I guess in today's world for what passes as a valid point, Italy not killing as many Americans in WW 2 as the Germans made them OK.
Iranian caused or Iranian supported American deaths in the hundreds, easy, and accurate.
http://icasualties.org/App/Fatalities?c ... 64&rows=10
Sunni caused American deaths in the thousands also accurate.
I guess in today's world for what passes as a valid point, Italy not killing as many Americans in WW 2 as the Germans made them OK.
Re: Is Trump doing a good job?
Trump has been doing two "good" things as of late:
1) Raising the gold price.
2) Doing dumb things that raise probability of him not getting re-elected.
Everything else is awful.
1) Raising the gold price.
2) Doing dumb things that raise probability of him not getting re-elected.
Everything else is awful.
MB
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Re: Is Trump doing a good job?
I'll take your word on that one, my friend.Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 07, 2020 3:48 pmYou are going to be very surprised in November. But of course as a Canadian I’m sure you get at least as much fake news as we get here.
My heart says Bernie, but I never seem to bet on the winning horse in the race. Maybe that's why I like a portfolio that is asset class agnostic!
MB
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- dualstow
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Re: Is Trump doing a good job?
I really don't think Bernie has a chance.
Re: Is Trump doing a good job?
Probably not, but a guy can hope.
MB
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Re: Is Trump doing a good job?
Where are you getting those numbers? Your link doesn’t provide that information.Kbg wrote: ↑Tue Jan 07, 2020 3:30 pm Facts are good things...take a look at the data yourself.
Iranian caused or Iranian supported American deaths in the hundreds, easy, and accurate.
http://icasualties.org/App/Fatalities?c ... 64&rows=10
Sunni caused American deaths in the thousands also accurate.
I guess in today's world for what passes as a valid point, Italy not killing as many Americans in WW 2 as the Germans made them OK.
We are talking about escalating a war with Iran while we are conducting all sorts of wars around their borders. Even if your stats are correct, which I can’t glean off of your source whatsoever (on a phone so maybe the site shows more on desktop), there is still a massive amount of burden of proof on our perma-war surveillance state to justify escalating a war with Iran. There are murderous assholes all over. Using war powers to execute some of them at the risk of escalating war is way, way beyond the pale unless it can be justified on multiple other levels.
And again, you’ve got a subscription-based news source I’m all ears. I don’t mind paying for quality content.
- dualstow
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Re: Is Trump doing a good job?
Is it Stratfor?
Re: Is Trump doing a good job?
Moda,
I just think you have a default setting for everything regardless of facts. I gave you the key for how to figure out what reality is when it comes to casualties caused by whom. Draw a line south of Najaf and the odds are very high the person was killed by a Shia militia or most likely Shia placed roadside bomb. Do your own analysis and actually try going with facts vs spin.
There is probably no one on this board who would like to see the US out of the Middle East more than me. I think we have WAY overstayed our useful purpose and welcome there.
However, I believe you quite naive and or hopelessly biased if you think Iran has an ounce of goodwill toward us and is some benign if only the US wouldn’t have picked on us country. They are not our friends and we shouldn’t be theirs...notwithstanding I think a major war would be stupid on all sides. We may not be able to fix something the way we would like to but we can break something better than anyone.
I just think you have a default setting for everything regardless of facts. I gave you the key for how to figure out what reality is when it comes to casualties caused by whom. Draw a line south of Najaf and the odds are very high the person was killed by a Shia militia or most likely Shia placed roadside bomb. Do your own analysis and actually try going with facts vs spin.
There is probably no one on this board who would like to see the US out of the Middle East more than me. I think we have WAY overstayed our useful purpose and welcome there.
However, I believe you quite naive and or hopelessly biased if you think Iran has an ounce of goodwill toward us and is some benign if only the US wouldn’t have picked on us country. They are not our friends and we shouldn’t be theirs...notwithstanding I think a major war would be stupid on all sides. We may not be able to fix something the way we would like to but we can break something better than anyone.
Re: Is Trump doing a good job?
Yeah, the news footage of massive crowds chanting "death to America" should be telling enough.
MB
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Re: Is Trump doing a good job?
Is this completely different from many people in France joining the French resistance on the day the United States was liberating France?Kbg wrote: ↑Tue Jan 07, 2020 11:22 am
I try not be cynical but in that part of the world internationally and internally, there aren't "sides" that anyone adheres to. The culture, necessarily so, is all about figuring out who is the strongest now, how can that fact help "me" now. And you can bet your life on the fact that as soon as the power equation changes everyone is going to adapt to the new read/reality of things.
Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
Re: Is Trump doing a good job?
As noted, necessarily so. If we lived in similar circumstances I'm sure we would all be doing the same thing. I don't think I previously criticized this behavior at all. I did point out we should have no illusions as to the dynamic going on and assume we have real "friends." We have elements that will or will not align their interests with ours for a period of time. And equally, we have elements that will actively oppose for a period of time (and both could switch and likely would switch if the situation changes significantly).vnatale wrote: ↑Tue Jan 07, 2020 8:29 pmIs this completely different from many people in France joining the French resistance on the day the United States was liberating France?Kbg wrote: ↑Tue Jan 07, 2020 11:22 am
I try not be cynical but in that part of the world internationally and internally, there aren't "sides" that anyone adheres to. The culture, necessarily so, is all about figuring out who is the strongest now, how can that fact help "me" now. And you can bet your life on the fact that as soon as the power equation changes everyone is going to adapt to the new read/reality of things.
Vinny