Kbg wrote: ↑Mon Jan 06, 2020 3:48 pm
What we just saw (are seeing) was/is a classic escalation cycle...eventually someone blinks or you have a war.
Let's just ignore "who started it" recently and for the past several decades. History matters of course to both sides. The current cycle went something like this:
Trump/Bolton initiate by walking from the nuclear deal and uping sanctions
"Mysterious" oil tanker attacks
Iran shoots down a Global Hawk (this isn't a little cheap drone, it's on the order of a couple hundred mil...frankly I was shocked we did nothing at that point)
US tightens the economic screws down more
Iran takes out 1/2 of Saudi oil production
US/Saudi Arabia Blink???
Iranian back militia mortars US airbase, kills 1 wounds 4
US bombs several Iranian backed Iraqi militia sites
Iranian backed militias overrun the US embassy
US takes out Soleimani and head of Iranian backed militia that overran embassy
Undoubtedly there is other stuff going on in the background none of us know about that may have been a factor(s) as well.
In any event, Iran blinks or raises the ante or both sides decide this is getting out of control and they both need to step away with some face saving for both sides.
Love or hate Trump, the theory behind this type of thing says unpredictability is a good asset to have. Via Twitter and assuming Trump doesn't blink, the US has said, go a head meet our call, we are raising again afterward if you do.
If we go to war in a major way, morality doesn't matter. The winner gets to set the future terms.
It would be nice if both sides would just step away, that's what I'm hoping for.
Personally, I think Iran pushed things too far and thought Trump blinked. That was certainly my read. My guess is shortly after the US thought Iran had pushed things too far old fashioned international power calculations kicked in. And I'm sure there are Iranians out there who think the same thing about breaking the nuclear deal and slapping on hard sanctions.
(PS...I likely got some events out of sequence feel free to add/correct...substantively it doesn't change the main point that we are in an escalation cycle clear as day)