What if the unicorns die off?

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ochotona
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What if the unicorns die off?

Post by ochotona » Sun Sep 22, 2019 8:53 pm

If Uber and Lyft go out of business, what happens to my cheap, convenient rides? What happens to the drivers? Do they get de-platformed?
If AirBNB goes out of business, what happens to my cheap room stays? What happens to the owners? What happens to the properties?
If WeWork goes out of business, what happens to all of the commercial real estate in New York, London, and 123 other places rented up by We? Yes, here in Houston, too.
If the shale unicorns go out of business, what happens to the cheap oil? How is the world economy affected in a post-Abqaiq world when the Permian production stops growing?

What happens when the investors and in some cases the participants (drivers) stop subsidizing these activities for no gains, or the ####-sharing platforms are banned by communities which tire of the abuses? (condo complexes and apartment buildings banning short-term sub-lease rentals, jurisdictions ruling that drivers are indeed taxis, "contractors" are really employees?
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shekels
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Re: What if the unicorns die off?

Post by shekels » Mon Sep 23, 2019 9:53 am

ochotona wrote:
Sun Sep 22, 2019 8:53 pm
If Uber and Lyft go out of business, what happens to my cheap, convenient rides? What happens to the drivers? Do they get de-platformed?
If AirBNB goes out of business, what happens to my cheap room stays? What happens to the owners? What happens to the properties?
If WeWork goes out of business, what happens to all of the commercial real estate in New York, London, and 123 other places rented up by We? Yes, here in Houston, too.
If the shale unicorns go out of business, what happens to the cheap oil? How is the world economy affected in a post-Abqaiq world when the Permian production stops growing?

What happens when the investors and in some cases the participants (drivers) stop subsidizing these activities for no gains, or the ####-sharing platforms are banned by communities which tire of the abuses? (condo complexes and apartment buildings banning short-term sub-lease rentals, jurisdictions ruling that drivers are indeed taxis, "contractors" are really employees?
We will Repeat, the Same as before. and keep doing it until they catch on.
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Kriegsspiel
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Re: What if the unicorns die off?

Post by Kriegsspiel » Mon Sep 23, 2019 6:37 pm

ochotona wrote:
Sun Sep 22, 2019 8:53 pm
If Uber and Lyft go out of business, what happens to my cheap, convenient rides? What happens to the drivers? Do they get de-platformed?
Some other company could do the same thing they did. Maybe better. It's a pretty simple concept. Although I guess it depends. Maybe they went out of business because cheap fossil fuels ran out, and nobody is going to be the next Uber. That would be a bummer. The drivers would obviously migrate to the new software, or else do something else. What else would happen?
If AirBNB goes out of business, what happens to my cheap room stays? What happens to the owners? What happens to the properties?
Same as above. Although I guess if AirBNB went under and nobody took their place (say, through government outlawing the business model), those properties would revert back to landlord and private ownership. Rents would probably come down where they're prevalent.
If WeWork goes out of business, what happens to all of the commercial real estate in New York, London, and 123 other places rented up by We? Yes, here in Houston, too.
I believe there were office rental spaces available before WeWork came around. The kind of people who go to a WeWork could just work from home. Or the library. Or Starbucks. Whatever, I don't see this as a big deal at all.
If the shale unicorns go out of business, what happens to the cheap oil? How is the world economy affected in a post-Abqaiq world when the Permian production stops growing?
lulz. Gamechanger.
What happens when the investors and in some cases the participants (drivers) stop subsidizing these activities for no gains, or the ####-sharing platforms are banned by communities which tire of the abuses? (condo complexes and apartment buildings banning short-term sub-lease rentals, jurisdictions ruling that drivers are indeed taxis, "contractors" are really employees?
One thing I like about what Uber/Lyft/AirBNB/craigslist do is that they close waste/inefficiency loops. Ride shares facilitate ad hoc carpooling. AirBNB and craigslist help people find roommates or rent out their unused property. craigslist basically acts like temporary storage if you sell your IKEA table or Home Depot lawnmower in your current town, move without carting it across country, and buying the same item off your new town's craigslist. But hey, if all that stops... man, it was just the sprinkles on the icing on the cake of a luxury lifestyle.
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
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Re: What if the unicorns die off?

Post by Mountaineer » Tue Sep 24, 2019 6:04 am

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Mon Sep 23, 2019 6:37 pm
If the shale unicorns go out of business, what happens to the cheap oil? How is the world economy affected in a post-Abqaiq world when the Permian production stops growing?
lulz. Gamechanger.
Being closer to the "eternal, peaceful, everything is perfect" realm does have its advantages if this scenario comes to be. ;)
DNA has its own language (code), and language requires intelligence. There is no known mechanism by which matter can give birth to information, let alone language. It is unreasonable to believe the world could have happened by chance.
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Re: What if the unicorns die off?

Post by WiseOne » Wed Sep 25, 2019 11:02 am

ochotona wrote:
Sun Sep 22, 2019 8:53 pm
If Uber and Lyft go out of business, what happens to my cheap, convenient rides? What happens to the drivers? Do they get de-platformed?
In Manhattan at least, it would be a major transportation crisis. Potentially also in LA and many other cities.

Ironically, NYC's government doesn't seem to realize that without Uber, Lyft and the others, Manhattan would freeze up because of how badly the subway system has been allowed to deteriorate. The number of taxi medallions has been fixed since the 1930s, to say nothing of the inefficiencies of manual ride hailing, so the yellow cabs wouldn't be able to cover the gap.
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Re: What if the unicorns die off?

Post by Tortoise » Wed Sep 25, 2019 12:23 pm

If Uber and Lyft were to go out of business, I'm pretty sure the number of drunk drivers on the road would increase noticeably.

For drunk people whose judgment is impaired, I suspect the main benefit of Uber and Lyft over taxis isn't that they're cheaper; it's that their apps are so much more convenient.

People are lazy, and drunk people are even lazier. Uber and Lyft have made it very convenient for drunk people to do the right thing.
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Re: What if the unicorns die off?

Post by WiseOne » Fri Sep 27, 2019 8:24 am

Well, I guess I'm lazy too. I really prefer using an app and knowing exactly when the driver pulls up, to standing out in the street in the pouring rain waving my arm like a madwoman and trying to compete with the people around me doing the same thing. It's the can't put the genie back in the bottle thing - people are never going to want to do that again. NYC is delusional if they think that's going to happen.

Another thing about car services that I don't miss: hiring one to get to an airport. In my experience they are always late and never have the decency to call to let you know. I do not miss the anxiety that entails in the slightest.

Tortoise, any data to indicate that the #of drunk driver incidents has dropped since Uber came on the scene? If that's true, it would be a great plug for them.
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Re: What if the unicorns die off?

Post by drumminj » Fri Sep 27, 2019 9:49 am

Those of you who use Uber and Lyft, do you have any concerns about insurance/what happens if something goes awry?

I tend to use car services/avoid ride sharing for that reason. I don't trust the driver has insurance that actually covers what they're doing (commercial, vs personal use), and don't want to have to try to sue someone who is driving for one of the services to make a living, as chances are there's nothing to recoup.

At least with a proper business I know they're insured/bonded/etc.

I also deal with the traffic mess that these drivers make in downtown Seattle. IMO they are a scourge, turn left from the right-hand lane (across traffic/cutting off folks) without signalling, stop in the middle of traffic to load/unload, etc. Without a doubt whenever I see someone do something stupid/unsafe/illegal, it's an Uber or Lyft driver (more often Uber in my experience).
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Re: What if the unicorns die off?

Post by InsuranceGuy » Fri Sep 27, 2019 10:04 am

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Re: What if the unicorns die off?

Post by flyingpylon » Fri Sep 27, 2019 10:28 am

I typically say that anyone that doesn't appreciate Uber or Lyft hasn't taken a taxi anywhere recently. I've had far more doubts about my safety in taxis than in Uber rides. But I also have to acknowledge that my sample size is small, usually just several times a year when traveling for business.
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Re: What if the unicorns die off?

Post by drumminj » Fri Sep 27, 2019 11:02 am

InsuranceGuy wrote:
Fri Sep 27, 2019 10:04 am
You actually shouldn't have any concerns from an insurance standpoint. Both Uber and Lyft provide $1m liability insurance that covers passengers during the time they are being taxied around at terms very similar to a commerical/taxi policy. The cost comes out of the portion that Uber and Lyft retain from the fare.

Here are links that further describe their insurance programs:
https://www.uber.com/us/en/drive/insurance/
https://help.lyft.com/hc/en-us/articles ... nce-Policy
Thanks for the links. That makes me feel a little bit better, but of course depends on whether it's a "covered accident", and a 1m per incident limit is somewhat low (I have no clue what the limits are for taxis or private car services).
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Re: What if the unicorns die off?

Post by Tortoise » Fri Sep 27, 2019 12:51 pm

WiseOne wrote:
Fri Sep 27, 2019 8:24 am
Tortoise, any data to indicate that the #of drunk driver incidents has dropped since Uber came on the scene? If that's true, it would be a great plug for them.
The data seem to be mixed. From what I can tell, there's not yet a lot of evidence that Uber and Lyft have noticeably reduced drunk driving injuries and fatalities, but there does seem to be strong evidence that Uber and Lyft have significantly reduced drunk driving arrests and convictions (see the two examples below).

I'm not yet sure how to reconcile these two observations (fewer arrests/convictions, but roughly the same number of injuries and fatalities). But at the moment, the evidence pointing to fewer drunk driving arrests/convictions aligns with common sense and my own observations of people's behavior in the age of ride-sharing apps.

California:
https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/05/10/ ... me-cities/
"Arrests for driving under the influence of alcohol or drugs are down dramatically in California's biggest cities, and that may be an ongoing trend thanks to ride-sharing services like Lyft and Uber.
Studies by the University of California at Davis and Moll Law Group found that arrests had declined by 32 percent in San Diego, 28 percent in San Jose, 26 percent in Sacramento and 14 percent in both Los Angeles and the San Francisco-Oakland area in the two years after ride sharing began in each of the areas."


Georgia:
https://www.rstreet.org/2018/11/08/the- ... k-driving/
"During the five-year period between 2007 and 2012, Georgia DUI convictions dropped by 16 percent. The following five years, from 2012 to 2017, impaired driving convictions fell by over 34 percent — a decrease of almost 12,000 convictions. What’s behind this significant decline? In Cobb County, Assistant Solicitor General Steven Ellis believes that 'we have fewer impaired drivers on the road because of ride-share services.' Indeed, Uber expanded into Atlanta in 2012 and Lyft in 2013. Ever since these two services entered the Georgia market, DUI convictions have declined at around twice the previous pace."
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