"The Bezzle"

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Kriegsspiel
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"The Bezzle"

Post by Kriegsspiel » Wed Oct 13, 2021 3:07 pm

Interesting longread about the concept of "the bezzle" and economic fakery.

Why the Bezzle Matters to the Economy
Cato suggested that women would live long, healthy lives if they washed their genitals in the urine of a cabbage eater. He was listened to on health matters, since in an age of short lives and high infant mortality he lived to be over 80 and claimed to have fathered 28 sons, all of which he credited to eating cabbage with salt and vinegar.
- Kurlansky, Salt
whatchamacallit
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Re: "The Bezzle"

Post by whatchamacallit » Wed Oct 13, 2021 9:50 pm

I first heard about the bezzle from Emil reading this same essay I believe.

https://youtu.be/ohLzmVdeRdg
Kbg
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Re: "The Bezzle"

Post by Kbg » Thu Oct 14, 2021 9:19 am

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Wed Oct 13, 2021 3:07 pm
Interesting longread about the concept of "the bezzle" and economic fakery.

Why the Bezzle Matters to the Economy
Excellent post, thanks! Sounds similar to Soro's theory of reflexivity.
barrett
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Re: "The Bezzle"

Post by barrett » Thu Oct 14, 2021 11:55 am

Yes, thanks for posting this! For those of you who have read the piece or are otherwise familiar with the bezzle, do you think that a PP-esque portfolio can withstand the unwinding stage? Does it follow that unwinding benefits high-quality long duration bonds? I mean, such an unwinding is deflationary, right? Or is cash potentially the big winner because of the optionality that it offers?
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Desert
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Re: "The Bezzle"

Post by Desert » Thu Oct 14, 2021 12:17 pm

Agreed, this is a really interesting article.
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Re: "The Bezzle"

Post by Kbg » Thu Oct 14, 2021 2:08 pm

barrett wrote:
Thu Oct 14, 2021 11:55 am
Yes, thanks for posting this! For those of you who have read the piece or are otherwise familiar with the bezzle, do you think that a PP-esque portfolio can withstand the unwinding stage? Does it follow that unwinding benefits high-quality long duration bonds? I mean, such an unwinding is deflationary, right? Or is cash potentially the big winner because of the optionality that it offers?
Calling a top is one of the most difficult things to do. It's the old shorting saying...the market can go up longer than you can remain solvent.

In PP theory, LTTs are supposed to provide that pop and they still basically do that. However, now it would take the Fed stepping in to artificially send rates lower and/or make them negative. No one in history has had to deal with what is going on now and certainly it wasn't HB's data set when he developed the PP.

Cash is always good for the exact reason you stated.
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GT
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Re: "The Bezzle"

Post by GT » Thu Oct 14, 2021 2:15 pm

Kbg wrote:
Thu Oct 14, 2021 2:08 pm
barrett wrote:
Thu Oct 14, 2021 11:55 am
Yes, thanks for posting this! For those of you who have read the piece or are otherwise familiar with the bezzle, do you think that a PP-esque portfolio can withstand the unwinding stage? Does it follow that unwinding benefits high-quality long duration bonds? I mean, such an unwinding is deflationary, right? Or is cash potentially the big winner because of the optionality that it offers?
Calling a top is one of the most difficult things to do. It's the old shorting saying...the market can go up longer than you can remain solvent.

In PP theory, LTTs are supposed to provide that pop and they still basically do that. However, now it would take the Fed stepping in to artificially send rates lower and/or make them negative. No one in history has had to deal with what is going on now and certainly it wasn't HB's data set when he developed the PP.

Cash is always good for the exact reason you stated.
Not sure if this question should be spun off to another post .. but.. What is everyone's best guess as to what HB would be recommending if he still had his call in show?
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Re: "The Bezzle"

Post by Mountaineer » Thu Oct 14, 2021 3:09 pm

Trust not in princes. They will ALWAYS let you down.
“For you”. In Holy Communion, our Lord gives us what we need most: His body and blood for the forgiveness of our sins. And He does not stop there. He also gives life and salvation, as Martin Luther reminds us.
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Re: "The Bezzle"

Post by I Shrugged » Fri Oct 15, 2021 8:58 am

GT wrote:
Thu Oct 14, 2021 2:15 pm


Not sure if this question should be spun off to another post .. but.. What is everyone's best guess as to what HB would be recommending if he still had his call in show?
I've often wondered about this. I think others have too.
My best guess is that as long as the PP has not been broken, he wouldn't change it.
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Re: "The Bezzle"

Post by whatchamacallit » Fri Oct 15, 2021 11:44 am

I Shrugged wrote:
Fri Oct 15, 2021 8:58 am
GT wrote:
Thu Oct 14, 2021 2:15 pm


Not sure if this question should be spun off to another post .. but.. What is everyone's best guess as to what HB would be recommending if he still had his call in show?
I've often wondered about this. I think others have too.
My best guess is that as long as the PP has not been broken, he wouldn't change it.
Question is, what country would he store his gold.
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