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Re: Rethinking the Permanent Portfolio

Posted: Wed Jul 03, 2019 1:22 pm
by Smith1776
Whatever the future may hold, I don't think that anyone who waits to augment their PP or VP with cryptocurrencies will suffer as a result.

There may be another speculative boom in cryptocurrencies, but who cares? There are speculative booms all the time. If you hold the traditional PP, you'll be just fine.

Re: Rethinking the Permanent Portfolio

Posted: Wed Jul 03, 2019 1:26 pm
by bitcoininthevp
Smith1776 wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 11:03 pm
gold is harder to manipulate than the cryptocurrency market
The ease in which crypto is "manipulated" is due to its current small size.

Harry notes that such "manipulation" is really just market participants acting and I tent to agree with his approach.

Sure there are some crypto exchanges that commit fraud and if you want to call that manipulation, Id largely agree.

However, if Bitcoin continues to grow, it will be much easier for a digital bearer asset to resist "manipulation" than it would a physical asset. Gold's downfall was its physical nature. This allows it to be confiscated, led to centralization on vaults (and not individual ownership), etc.

Re: Rethinking the Permanent Portfolio

Posted: Wed Jul 03, 2019 1:32 pm
by bitcoininthevp
Kbg wrote:
Fri Jun 21, 2019 7:57 am
When any crypto begins to wrack up serious transaction value, governments will be involved. Anyone who does not believe this I think is delusional.
Absolutely governments will get involved. The question is, which? And in what ways.

There is a lot of incentive to see the US dollar dethroned. Perhaps the US, money #1 is threatened by Bitcoin, but that is just incentive for other governments to adopt and secure Bitcoin.

Bitcoin's digital nature actually allows its security (mining) to be contributed to completely in secret without the countries supporting Bitcoin to overtly admit that they are doing so.

A lot of fodder for fiction writers. ^

Re: Rethinking the Permanent Portfolio

Posted: Wed Jul 03, 2019 1:35 pm
by Smith1776
bitcoininthevp wrote:
Wed Jul 03, 2019 1:26 pm
Smith1776 wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 11:03 pm
gold is harder to manipulate than the cryptocurrency market
The ease in which crypto is "manipulated" is due to its current small size.

Harry notes that such "manipulation" is really just market participants acting and I tent to agree with his approach.

Sure there are some crypto exchanges that commit fraud and if you want to call that manipulation, Id largely agree.

However, if Bitcoin continues to grow, it will be much easier for a digital bearer asset to resist "manipulation" than it would a physical asset. Gold's downfall was its physical nature. This allows it to be confiscated, led to centralization on vaults (and not individual ownership), etc.
My personal take is that I'd really like to own both. Gold, which has ultimate resistance against any kind of digital attacks or electronic infrastructure failure. And Bitcoin, which has ultimate resistance against physical confiscation.

If only I had eidetic memory.. then I'd be ballsy enough to hold a brain wallet.

Re: Rethinking the Permanent Portfolio

Posted: Wed Jul 03, 2019 1:39 pm
by Smith1776
bitcoininthevp wrote:
Wed Jul 03, 2019 1:32 pm
Kbg wrote:
Fri Jun 21, 2019 7:57 am
When any crypto begins to wrack up serious transaction value, governments will be involved. Anyone who does not believe this I think is delusional.
Absolutely governments will get involved. The question is, which? And in what ways.

There is a lot of incentive to see the US dollar dethroned. Perhaps the US, money #1 is threatened by Bitcoin, but that is just incentive for other governments to adopt and secure Bitcoin.

Bitcoin's digital nature actually allows its security (mining) to be contributed to completely in secret without the countries supporting Bitcoin to overtly admit that they are doing so.

A lot of fodder for fiction writers. ^
bitcoininthevp, would you be willing to write up a short post (sticky?) as a guide on how best the rest of us can test the waters in integrating bitcoin/cyrptocurrencies into our portfolios? I mean, guides like that exist, but I mean your ideas within the context of the pp/vp. What to avoid, how best to pursue it practically, how much to integrate, and all that pragmatic stuff.

Re: Rethinking the Permanent Portfolio

Posted: Wed Jul 03, 2019 1:41 pm
by bitcoininthevp
Smith1776 wrote:
Fri Jun 28, 2019 11:40 pm
What's funny about Bitcoin is that as an asset its economic substance is becoming more and more like gold. Even more so than the community even suspected I think.

We PPers think of gold as an alt cash. However, it's really a reserve asset, in that we don't use gold to buy a cup of coffee. It's just too cumbersome. We use our domestic fiat currencies to do that.

Bitcoin, it seems, is inheriting this quality.

Bitcoin's onerous transaction confirmation times, transaction costs, limited block size, and volatility make it unsuitable as real cash. Many of these limitations are due to legacy baggage that can't be changed. As such, even the Bitcoin diehards are resorting to using the cryptocurrency purely for large transactions, or as a long term store for their wealth. Not the proverbial cup of coffee. That isn't unlike gold.
One thing that I would add here is that Bitcoin is in the process* of monetization. Gold has already monetized. A reason to not spend your Bitcoin (in addition to the ones you outlined and I agree with above), is that in order for Bitcoin to continue monetizing, it will have to appreciate in value due to its limited supply. Most people holding Bitcoin believe this is happening long term. Thus the speculation component results in a strong holding and not spending culture.

*
Image

Re: Rethinking the Permanent Portfolio

Posted: Wed Jul 03, 2019 1:44 pm
by bitcoininthevp
dualstow wrote:
Sat Jun 29, 2019 7:41 am
Blockchain is fascinating,...
Why is blockchain fascinating? What use case does the blockchain enable beyond money?

Blockchains are for resisting censorship. What services or industries need to resist censorship? And what do they need that cannot be achieved by some database and an API?

Re: Rethinking the Permanent Portfolio

Posted: Wed Jul 03, 2019 1:48 pm
by bitcoininthevp
Ad Orientem wrote:
Sat Jun 29, 2019 12:02 pm
What am I getting here that is real or tangible?
When you "own" 1BTC (Bitcoin), there is an entry on a ledger shared by thousands of computers which enables you and you alone (via cryptography) to direct where it goes next.

Re: Rethinking the Permanent Portfolio

Posted: Wed Jul 03, 2019 2:00 pm
by bitcoininthevp
Smith1776 wrote:
Wed Jul 03, 2019 1:39 pm
bitcoininthevp, would you be willing to write up a short post (sticky?) as a guide on how best the rest of us can test the waters in integrating bitcoin/cyrptocurrencies into our portfolios? I mean, guides like that exist, but I mean your ideas within the context of the pp/vp. What to avoid, how best to pursue it practically, how much to integrate, and all that pragmatic stuff.
Since IMHO Bitcoin would be in the VP, there are not many guidances that would be PP specific. Since I think the VP is "anything goes" pretty much. But maybe Im missing something there. Feel free to add some follow up questions. Im happy to include some ideas on monetization, risks, applicable articles that might appeal to PPers.

I can recommend a way to acquire a small amount of Bitcoin that I think is most safe. And a way to store Bitcoin securely. Ill let others post any additional questions here before I draft it to make sure everything is included.

I am also happy to answer any direct messages for people who have specific questions.

Re: Rethinking the Permanent Portfolio

Posted: Wed Jul 03, 2019 2:15 pm
by johntaylor
bitcoininthevp wrote:
Wed Jul 03, 2019 2:00 pm
I am also happy to answer any direct messages for people who have specific questions.
when moon, sir ? :)

Re: Rethinking the Permanent Portfolio

Posted: Wed Jul 03, 2019 3:35 pm
by dualstow
bitcoininthevp wrote:
Wed Jul 03, 2019 1:44 pm
dualstow wrote:
Sat Jun 29, 2019 7:41 am
Blockchain is fascinating,...
Why is blockchain fascinating? What use case does the blockchain enable beyond money?

Blockchains are for resisting censorship.
...
Exactly. I feel like I’ve given this answer before but:
when a university student in Beijing was allegedly assaulted by a professor, her supporters put the accusation into blockchain so that it could not be erased.

Re: Rethinking the Permanent Portfolio

Posted: Wed Jul 03, 2019 5:26 pm
by Smith1776
bitcoininthevp wrote:
Wed Jul 03, 2019 2:00 pm
Smith1776 wrote:
Wed Jul 03, 2019 1:39 pm
bitcoininthevp, would you be willing to write up a short post (sticky?) as a guide on how best the rest of us can test the waters in integrating bitcoin/cyrptocurrencies into our portfolios? I mean, guides like that exist, but I mean your ideas within the context of the pp/vp. What to avoid, how best to pursue it practically, how much to integrate, and all that pragmatic stuff.
Since IMHO Bitcoin would be in the VP, there are not many guidances that would be PP specific. Since I think the VP is "anything goes" pretty much. But maybe Im missing something there. Feel free to add some follow up questions. Im happy to include some ideas on monetization, risks, applicable articles that might appeal to PPers.

I can recommend a way to acquire a small amount of Bitcoin that I think is most safe. And a way to store Bitcoin securely. Ill let others post any additional questions here before I draft it to make sure everything is included.

I am also happy to answer any direct messages for people who have specific questions.
Agreed that bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general are most appropriate for the VP. And certainly the VP is where anything goes.

What I'm thinking is that there's likely a way to go about dipping one's toe into the waters more prudently via the VP, as opposed to doing it in a haphazard way. Your familiarity with both Browne's work and cryptocurrencies would be invaluable in that case.

In addition, perhaps the discussion can evolve over time as bitcoin and the alt coins mature -- maybe even to the point in which they deserve a place alongside gold in the PP.

Re: Rethinking the Permanent Portfolio

Posted: Sun Mar 14, 2021 11:51 am
by vnatale
Looks like this was one of the many predecessor topics to the current one that has emerged?

Re: Rethinking the Permanent Portfolio

Posted: Mon Mar 15, 2021 6:09 pm
by Smith1776
Yep. Thread started in 2019. I had figured by 2021 it was time to revisit the subject.

The market is always evolving. O0

Re: Rethinking the Permanent Portfolio

Posted: Tue Mar 16, 2021 6:35 am
by Mountaineer
MangoMan wrote:
Sun Mar 14, 2021 2:24 pm
vnatale wrote:
Sun Mar 14, 2021 11:51 am
Looks like this was one of the many predecessor topics to the current one that has emerged?
Right, bc if you've been here long enough, you realize the same topics keep getting rehashed over and over, yet the conclusions are almost always the same. Which is why I don't read or respond to most of the PP discussions or those on individual asset components. Been there, done that.
True, but a few years ago it was about Corona beer.

;)

Re: Rethinking the Permanent Portfolio

Posted: Tue Mar 16, 2021 11:06 am
by buddtholomew
Why don’t you tell us if you reach a different conclusion from the infinite pages on this forum where the philosophy is outlined. That would be a good starting point.
I am interested in crypto and the PP as you do have a sound grasp of the subject from what I’ve read.

Re: Rethinking the Permanent Portfolio

Posted: Tue Mar 16, 2021 11:16 am
by Mountaineer
vincent_c wrote:
Tue Mar 16, 2021 8:56 am
MangoMan wrote:
Sun Mar 14, 2021 2:24 pm
yet the conclusions are almost always the same.
If they are only almost always the same, I'm interested in the things that may have changed.

Things may be the same and that's a good thing.

It seems a lot of the senior members have a consensus on things so how about one of you provide a quick summary of the conclusions that you guys think are going to be the same?
God is great, beer is good, and people are crazy. ... Billy Currington. That is a quick summary.