Time to Return to the Gold Standard?

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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gaddyslapper007
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Re: Time to Return to the Gold Standard?

Post by gaddyslapper007 » Wed May 15, 2019 11:44 am

Kbg wrote:
Wed May 15, 2019 11:00 am
gaddyslapper007 wrote:
Wed May 15, 2019 8:55 am
5. Agree...Per my above post. Government prints paper, government demands taxes be paid in said paper, threatens people to pay taxes or go to prison, <-- Voila! Paper now has value amongst the people! My point.....like it or not, BTC has been existence for 10 years and gets stronger more adopted by the day...."people" have a desire /want a money outside of government oversight, control and manipulation...it that's easy. Whether or not BTC ultimately delivers that is the questions.....time will tell. And straight up....I will move to another country if the US outlaws BTC. That would be pure infringement upon freedom of speech, property, etc.....(<--note, has nothing do with money...principles of no longer being a free(ish) country.)
No manipulation for personal/organizational gain going on here...I'm sure. :)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_bitcoin_forks

I'm really, really not trying to be mean...but I'm going to keep on popping hallucinogenic bubbles. >:D
FYI.....thanks for all thoughts and inputs throughout this chat forum! You are one of my top respected peeps I have on here to learn from....and you have shaped my mind /portfolio over the years. Please do not think I engage in this discussion for malicious purpose ...other than to getting inside your mind for your thoughts! thanks again for all your contributions!
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Re: Time to Return to the Gold Standard?

Post by Kbg » Wed May 15, 2019 11:46 am

Thank you for the kind words. I enjoy collegial debate & banter back and forth.
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Re: Time to Return to the Gold Standard?

Post by boglerdude » Wed May 15, 2019 8:30 pm

> if the US outlaws BTC

The US gov is big business. Do Gates, Buffet, and Bezos want Bitcoin as the currency?
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Re: Time to Return to the Gold Standard?

Post by gaddyslapper007 » Thu May 16, 2019 5:54 am

boglerdude wrote:
Wed May 15, 2019 8:30 pm
> if the US outlaws BTC

The US gov is big business. Do Gates, Buffet, and Bezos want Bitcoin as the currency?
From my understanding......Gates originally liked the idea of BTC, then later shunned it......not sure of his stance now. Seems like recall reading something recently that Microsoft is building on the network....but could be wrong there.

Buffet calls it “rat poison”......so no! (He hates gold as well.)

Bezos - I honestly don’t know.....couldn’t find anything with google search.

I don’t think BTC is going to de-thrown the USD anytime soon. I do think we will see it overtake gold (market cap) within the next 10 years.

The fundamental fact of money!....it goes where it is treated best. (I.e. less taxation / government oversight).
What form of money that will be?.....I don’t know.
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Re: Time to Return to the Gold Standard?

Post by Kbg » Thu May 16, 2019 9:08 am

Most of my reading on Bitcoin indicates there isn't a ton of interest in it for monetary purposes. Think about it...banks transfer gobs of money securely every day. Of course theft happens physically and electronically but we've all read about multiple bitcoin bank heists so personally I also don't see the advantage. However, there is a TON of interest in using the associated technology for things like unique verifiable tagging, electronic identities, and several more. The technology is here to stay, no doubt about that, whether it becomes a serious form of money I think the jury is still out.

Having knocked the monetary property side of things, it is also fact that Bitcoin futures are proving to be a resilient product and they are trading fairly robustly for a newish product.
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Re: Time to Return to the Gold Standard?

Post by bitcoininthevp » Mon May 20, 2019 10:24 am

Kbg wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 9:08 am
Most of my reading on Bitcoin indicates there isn't a ton of interest in it for monetary purposes. Think about it...banks transfer gobs of money securely every day. Of course theft happens physically and electronically but we've all read about multiple bitcoin bank heists so personally I also don't see the advantage. However, there is a TON of interest in using the associated technology for things like unique verifiable tagging, electronic identities, and several more. The technology is here to stay, no doubt about that, whether it becomes a serious form of money I think the jury is still out.

Having knocked the monetary property side of things, it is also fact that Bitcoin futures are proving to be a resilient product and they are trading fairly robustly for a newish product.
Bitcoin* is not focused on being a payment network. As you mention there are plenty of those. My Visa card works perfectly almost all the time.

Bitcoin* is focused on being the hardest money. With a (currently weak) payment network as part of its capabilities.

When I say hard money I mean resistance to changes in its supply curve (other than its known inflation/distribution-of-coins schedule).

> multiple bitcoin bank heists

Is the dollar weak if someone robs a bank? Or is that a weakness of the bank? "not your keys, not your coins"

> don't see the advantage

Bitcoin is a censorship resistant digital bearer instrument. Here are some related use cases for Bitcoin:

> a TON of interest in using the associated technology

Which of these use cases require censorship resistance? Would they perform better than centralized alternatives? What are the incentive mechanisms for securing such networks? Which do you use? Which have any traction? Im very skeptical here as you can tell. This stuff has been talked about for years and is getting no usage.

* Obviously Bitcoin is software and does not have intentions. But its software parameters, the developers, and community around it is what I am referencing here.
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Re: Time to Return to the Gold Standard?

Post by bitcoininthevp » Mon May 20, 2019 10:29 am

Kbg wrote:
Wed May 15, 2019 11:00 am
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_bitcoin_forks

I'm really, really not trying to be mean...but I'm going to keep on popping hallucinogenic bubbles. >:D
Linking to a list of Bitcoin Forks without any context and somehow implying it as "a burn" doesn’t add value to the conversation. Anyone remotely familiar with Bitcoin is aware of such forks. The question for you is, why are forks "bad"? How are Bitcoins technical or economical operations negatively impacted?
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Re: Time to Return to the Gold Standard?

Post by Kbg » Mon May 20, 2019 9:08 pm

bitcoininthevp wrote:
Mon May 20, 2019 10:29 am
Linking to a list of Bitcoin Forks without any context and somehow implying it as "a burn" doesn’t add value to the conversation. Anyone remotely familiar with Bitcoin is aware of such forks. The question for you is, why are forks "bad"? How are Bitcoins technical or economical operations negatively impacted?
Pretty sure I didn't claim it was "bad." I said, like government issued money, Bitcoin is driven by people and is manipulated for various ends. I am not a Bitcoin expert, but I'm pretty sure I understand enough about the forking that is occurring to understand it isn't altruistically driven. (And you know that too.)

I assume you are Bitcoin expert, so of all the forks how many are instantly exchangeable between each of the other forks and into the foreign currency of one's choice?

However, I will repeat something I am highly confident in. For legal transactions, Bitcoin technology as a form of money is entirely beholden to government approval or as a minimum non-interference. True believers are deluded if they actually think that isn't the case. Of course let's say Bitcoin gets some large powerful constituent behind it and wants it to be widely recognized by government(s), this could happen. Alternatively the reverse could happen and it would happen something like this: Congress or Fed to Banks/Other Large Financial Institutions: Thou shalt not accept nor transact using Bitcoin if you want to continue doing business in the United States. And unlike Iranian oil which is a tangible thing, what's the point of even trying to buck such an edict?

In terms of financial instruments I am rarely pro or con anything. I just try to understand them and their behavior. The fact Bitcoin has futures on the CME says to me it is getting a measure of recognition. While maybe not outright endorsement, United States government acceptance at some level is implicit in their approval to trade.

Like physical gold, I throw down the Walmart and McDonald's test to Bitcoin. When you can successfully pass it, I will fully recognize Bitcoin as a legit, serious form of money. Until then, in my humble view, it is a minor sideshow composed of true believers, speculators and outright fraud.

(Note: I am not saying all Bitcoin variations are frauds, but there are many that are. I also understand/believe a competitive environment where creators hope their version will catch on is a major reason for multiple variants. This is not fraud, just entrepreneurship at its best and only "X" of them will survive over time.)

And for the readers of this thread...a "money" reality check

Hey this could be a legit form of money (2014) https://viewfinder.expedia.com/expedia- ... s-bitcoin/

Or maybe not...(2018) https://cointelegraph.com/news/confirme ... ent-option

I'm sure bitcoininthevp can probably google up an exact opposite example...however, my USD Visa has worked without a hitch the entire time.

Speaking of speculation...Bitcoin has been an outstanding speculative instrument if you can call it correctly. (Wish I could!)
Last edited by Kbg on Mon May 20, 2019 9:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Time to Return to the Gold Standard?

Post by Kbg » Mon May 20, 2019 9:24 pm

I forgot to address any of your other issues, yes I did. I'll concede every one of them.

However, this is a thread about what is "good money" not what we wish was good money and the most important feature of any form of money is that it is widely accepted for just about every form of commercial or private transaction.

Gold no, Bitcoin no.
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Re: Time to Return to the Gold Standard?

Post by bitcoininthevp » Tue May 21, 2019 8:48 am

> Pretty sure I didn't claim it was "bad."
You implied negativity with your "fork+pop your bubble" comments. To claim otherwise is being intellectually dishonest.
> I understand enough about the forking that is occurring to understand it isn't altruistically driven.
They are probably 99% scams IMHO.
> so of all the forks how many are instantly exchangeable between each of the other forks and into the foreign currency of one's choice?
Im not sure the validity of that test. But Id say only a minority of forks are listed on exchanges. With very low volume. I personally dont use any. When a fork happens and I receive the "free" coins, I just sell them for BTC.
> For legal transactions, Bitcoin technology as a form of money is entirely beholden to government approval or as a minimum non-interference.
Which government?
> let's say Bitcoin gets some large powerful constituent behind it
This is in progress. Keep in mind, Bitcoin is new and growing. No one is claiming the Bitcoin ecosystem is complete. Fidelity is adopting. ICE is launching a Bitcoin company (w/ Microsoft and Starbucks)
> United States government acceptance at some level is implicit in their approval to trade
USG also has SOLD Bitcoins they seized from drug markets. If that isnt a nod of approval (so far), I dont know what is. They dont sell cocaine from drug busts.
> I am not saying all Bitcoin variations are frauds, but there are many that are.
Probably all variants are. But if something somehow shows as a better future sound money candidate than Bitcoin, Id jump there.
> Until then, in my humble view, it is a minor sideshow composed of true believers, speculators and outright fraud.
I agree with this 100%.
> my USD Visa has worked without a hitch the entire time.
I said as much in my previous comment. But you seem to be focused on Bitcoin exclusively as a payment rail. There are plenty of payment rails out there (credit cards, paypal, apple pay, bank transfers, cash app and the like, etc). In fact, I think it is ridiculous to spend Bitcoin unless there is some discount or other reason to do so. If you believe it will be money in the future, its worth, per coin, in order to have liquidity to support any small % of the economy will have to go up something like ~100x.

Bitcoin wasn’t created to compete with any of these payment mechanism. Bitcoin is out to compete with other *monies* and central banks.

There will probably be layer 2 technologies on TOP of Bitcoin, using bitcoin's "money-ness" for fast *payments*. Look into Lightning Network. But that stuff is still being proven out.

I think you should consider a perspective of "Is this Bitcoin thing on track to be a future money?" instead of "Its not perfect and used everywhere today".

I think its really hard to argue Bitcoin isnt moving in the direction of money. See here for one idea of path to Bitcoin becoming money: https://medium.com/@vijayboyapati/the-b ... ecc8bdecc1

Sure its volatile and not widely spread. But that is part of what you would expect to see with a new non sovereign asset working towards being money. Sure doesn’t mean its inevitable. "They laughed at Columbus, they laughed at Fulton, they laughed at the Wright Brothers. But they also laughed at Bozo the Clown. " and all that. I get it.

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Re: Time to Return to the Gold Standard?

Post by bitcoininthevp » Tue May 21, 2019 8:52 am

Kbg wrote:
Mon May 20, 2019 9:24 pm
the most important feature of any form of money is that it is widely accepted for just about every form of commercial or private transaction.
Try telling that to the people of Venezuela or other countries which have hyper-inflated in the last few years.

To reiterate my stance on it, I think unit of account will be the last money-ness domino to fall. Decades. Payment network is probably somewhere between here in there.
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Re: Time to Return to the Gold Standard?

Post by Kbg » Tue May 21, 2019 9:37 pm

bit,

Based on your answers, overall, I believe our thoughts are pretty similar on the technical points. As mentioned earlier, I'm not a Bitcoin hater it just is not widely accepted and therefore is not a good form of money right now. While the ARPANet map is interesting, it also makes my point. The "internet" didn't became a "thing" until it became widely deployed/employed.

If bitcoin becomes better than my digitally enabled Visa card, I'll adopt it.

If one understands the associated technology and can make good bets for investing purposes or is good at speculating in bitcoin good for them.

And sorry, you served up a big ole softball so I'm going to take a big swing...how's the Petro working out? ;)

Here's an interesting BBC article on Bitcoin in Venezuela and it does seem to be helping the people there (but probably only those who are well to do) https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47553048

Not a hater, just a pragmatist.
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Re: Time to Return to the Gold Standard?

Post by boglerdude » Tue May 21, 2019 11:44 pm

Bitcoin could make things worse by increasing tax evasion and as a payment method for crime. Transparency is good for society
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Re: Time to Return to the Gold Standard?

Post by bitcoininthevp » Wed May 22, 2019 9:13 am

Kbg wrote:
Tue May 21, 2019 9:37 pm
The "internet" didn't became a "thing" until it became widely deployed/employed.

If bitcoin becomes better than my digitally enabled Visa card, I'll adopt it.

If one understands the associated technology and can make good bets for investing purposes or is good at speculating in bitcoin good for them.
Agreed in general. Only additional comment here is that a buy and hold on Bitcoin's future is a way to make money on "crypto's" success in a way that wasn’t possible with the Internet build out. With the Internet you needed to pick companies that would win. With Bitcoin, if you buy the hypothesis that money is winner take all (or winner take most), you can invest in Bitcoin as an asymmetric bet. I realize this is getting into Bitcoin evangelism shilling weirdness. So Ill leave it at that.
Kbg wrote:
Tue May 21, 2019 9:37 pm
And sorry, you served up a big ole softball so I'm going to take a big swing...how's the Petro working out? ;)
Petro is centralized garbage. I hope no one confuses a centralized "crypto" with a decentralized Bitcoin. To paraphrase Tommy Boy: "If you want me to take a dump in a box, and mark it a cryptocurrency I will. I've got spare time.". Remember the point of all of this is decentralization to facilitate censorship resistance (so transactions cannot be stopped, supply cannot be inflated, etc). Petro has nothing to do with that.
Kbg wrote:
Tue May 21, 2019 9:37 pm
Not a hater, just a pragmatist.
We cant all be early adopters of all technologies. Esp ones requiring a financial investment.

Im curious. Is there an objective metric that you would consider bitcoin to "have been adopted to your satisfaction"? For example there have been debit cards tied to bitcoin balances allowing you to "spend bitcoin" wherever Visa is accepted. I assume that is insufficient for you. Even though that is the same payment rail used by the USD. So what would be a more accurate version of your subjective Bitcoin-is-adopted-sufficiently?
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Re: Time to Return to the Gold Standard?

Post by bitcoininthevp » Wed May 22, 2019 9:22 am

boglerdude wrote:
Tue May 21, 2019 11:44 pm
Bitcoin could make things worse by increasing tax evasion and as a payment method for crime. Transparency is good for society
Tax evasion is universally bad?

"as a payment method for crime". You should see all of the crimes assisted with the use of cell phones. But you’re right, because Bitcoin is censorship resistant, criminals will be early adopters.

Also, all of Bitcoin's transactions are publicly viewable. Although pseudonymous, there are many techniques to clue who is behind transactions.

Do you think it is good for society for everyone to see everything you spend your money on? If so, do you currently publish your credit card and banking statements publicly somewhere for me to view?
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Re: Time to Return to the Gold Standard?

Post by boglerdude » Wed May 22, 2019 9:07 pm

Sure Id vote for a transparency law like that. It would expose the corruption in politics and bring world peace :) (I can hear Libertarian666 screaming from his bunker)

> what would be a more accurate version of your subjective Bitcoin-is-adopted-sufficiently?

When we need to use it, or when it does something that cant be done any other way. Right now it just abets crime.

Howbout using blockchain to secure video surveillance footage of public areas? So the gov cant edit it
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Re: Time to Return to the Gold Standard?

Post by Xan » Wed May 22, 2019 10:34 pm

boglerdude wrote:
Wed May 22, 2019 9:07 pm
Sure Id vote for a transparency law like that. It would expose the corruption in politics and bring world peace :) (I can hear Libertarian666 screaming from his bunker)

> what would be a more accurate version of your subjective Bitcoin-is-adopted-sufficiently?

When we need to use it, or when it does something that cant be done any other way. Right now it just abets crime.

Howbout using blockchain to secure video surveillance footage of public areas? So the gov cant edit it
I'm truly surprised at the casual endorsement of the Panopticon. Personally I'm glad every day that cash still exists.
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Re: Time to Return to the Gold Standard?

Post by boglerdude » Wed May 22, 2019 10:46 pm

"A mill for grinding rogues honest." lol'd

Yeah I live in the ghetto, the threat from thugs is 5x greater than the gov
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Re: Time to Return to the Gold Standard?

Post by bitcoininthevp » Thu May 23, 2019 10:35 am

boglerdude wrote:
Wed May 22, 2019 9:07 pm
Howbout using blockchain to secure video surveillance footage of public areas? So the gov cant edit it
You can use https://opentimestamps.org/ or something like it to prove existence on the Bitcoin blockchain similar to what you describe. But someone would need to store the video separately.

Creating a new blockchain for this seems unreasonable. Who is going to mine the chain? Is someone storing the video? Since it’s a blockchain, the point is that it is decentralized, so that means many people around the world storing it? What is their incentive? etc.

These are the common questions I have for the "blockchain everything!" crowd.
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Re: Time to Return to the Gold Standard?

Post by Kbg » Sat May 25, 2019 8:36 pm

Adoption metric...that’s a good question.

My answer will highlight I haven’t put much thought to such a question for sure, but here’s some off the cuff thoughts.

Walmart test (widely accepted)

Electronically secure (as good as my bank/FDIC insured)

Convertible (as good as FX)

Stable (in the same ballpark as the major currencies or the next tier down)

Interest bearing (if I park it somewhere)

In short, it needs to be as “good” as a government backed currency.
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