Bitcoin investors are running from the crypto to invest in gold

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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Ad Orientem
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Bitcoin investors are running from the crypto to invest in gold

Post by Ad Orientem » Sat Jan 26, 2019 3:55 pm

Bitcoin's hot streak is well and truly dead.

The cryptocurrency has not been able to crack above $4,000 in three weeks just 12 months after trading at more than $12,000.

Signs show that bitcoin investors are moving toward a more traditional commodity, says Jan Van Eck, CEO of Van Eck Associates.

"I do think that Bitcoin pulled a little bit of demand away from gold last year, in 2017," Van Eck told CNBC's "ETF Edge" on Wednesday. "Interestingly, we just polled 4,000 bitcoin investors and their number one investment for 2019 is actually gold. So gold lost to bitcoin and now it's going the other way."

In the 12 months to bitcoin's peak above $20,000 in December 2017, the cryptocurrency increased in value 25 times over. Over that same stretch, gold rallied 4 percent. More than a year since bitcoin's peak, it's down 82 percent, while gold is up 2.5 percent.

It may be difficult for the tide to turn back to bitcoin and away from gold from here, says Tim Seymour, founder and chief investment officer of Seymour Asset Management.

"Not only have we lost all liquidity on the underlying [commodity] but truly outside of the existential blockchain argument, it's been very difficult to argue store of value which is really what we started hearing about," Seymour said on "ETF Edge" on Wednesday. "Gold is a store of value and there's no disputing that."
Read the rest here...

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/26/bitcoin ... odity.html
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ochotona
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Re: Bitcoin investors are running from the crypto to invest in gold

Post by ochotona » Sat Jan 26, 2019 8:31 pm

My barber put lots of money into crypto a year ago. I tried to warn him.
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Ad Orientem
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Re: Bitcoin investors are running from the crypto to invest in gold

Post by Ad Orientem » Sat Jan 26, 2019 9:37 pm

ochotona wrote:
Sat Jan 26, 2019 8:31 pm
My barber put lots of money into crypto a year ago. I tried to warn him.
:(
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sophie
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Re: Bitcoin investors are running from the crypto to invest in gold

Post by sophie » Sun Jan 27, 2019 10:12 am

Ad Orientem wrote:
Sat Jan 26, 2019 3:55 pm
Read the rest here...

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/26/bitcoin ... odity.html
I figured that would happen sooner or later. Remember dualstow's experience with bitcoin? Too easy to get hacked, or lose your password or have something happen on the server side. Anyway, fantastic if gold is temporarily depressed because of this flirtation with crypto. It means it's been on sale for the past few years, and we've all been taking full advantage.

However, be really careful about taking a guy too seriously who equates gold miners with gold, and bases his idea of gold's position in a portfolio based on the last "two or three months":
If gold shares do get a bid this year, one of the ways to play it is through gold ETFs, says Van Eck. His firm created the most well-known gold ETFs: the GDX gold miners ETF and GDXJ junior gold miners ETF.

“The shares have been acting tremendously well over the last two or three months … It’s starting to zig when the stock market zags,” Van Eck said. “In the majority of the days in Q4 when the S&P was down, GDX was up. So that zigzag, that decoupling makes me really excited about gold shares as a diversifier.”
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ochotona
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Re: Bitcoin investors are running from the crypto to invest in gold

Post by ochotona » Sun Jan 27, 2019 10:43 am

sophie wrote:
Sun Jan 27, 2019 10:12 am
However, be really careful about taking a guy too seriously who equates gold miners with gold, and bases his idea of gold's position in a portfolio based on the last "two or three months":
If gold shares do get a bid this year, one of the ways to play it is through gold ETFs, says Van Eck. His firm created the most well-known gold ETFs: the GDX gold miners ETF and GDXJ junior gold miners ETF.

“The shares have been acting tremendously well over the last two or three months … It’s starting to zig when the stock market zags,” Van Eck said. “In the majority of the days in Q4 when the S&P was down, GDX was up. So that zigzag, that decoupling makes me really excited about gold shares as a diversifier.”

He's talking his book. He offers GDX, GDXJ.
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buddtholomew
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Re: Bitcoin investors are running from the crypto to invest in gold

Post by buddtholomew » Mon Jan 28, 2019 7:25 pm

Oh boy, good old GDX.
I think every time period from inception the fund has been -ve.
Bought my first batch at 37 and last batch at 18 and change several years ago.
What a peach >:D
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ochotona
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Re: Bitcoin investors are running from the crypto to invest in gold

Post by ochotona » Mon Jan 28, 2019 9:48 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Mon Jan 28, 2019 7:25 pm
Oh boy, good old GDX.
I think every time period from inception the fund has been -ve.
Bought my first batch at 37 and last batch at 18 and change several years ago.
What a peach >:D
The miners have destroyed so much capital...
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dualstow
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Re: Bitcoin investors are running from the crypto to invest in gold

Post by dualstow » Tue Jan 29, 2019 7:32 am

ochotona wrote:
Sat Jan 26, 2019 8:31 pm
My barber put lots of money into crypto a year ago. I tried to warn him.
He's going to take a haircut on that investment.
Gold has been above 1445
TODFTHR
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Cortopassi
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Re: Bitcoin investors are running from the crypto to invest in gold

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Jan 29, 2019 7:56 am

ochotona wrote:
Mon Jan 28, 2019 9:48 pm
buddtholomew wrote:
Mon Jan 28, 2019 7:25 pm
Oh boy, good old GDX.
I think every time period from inception the fund has been -ve.
Bought my first batch at 37 and last batch at 18 and change several years ago.
What a peach >:D
The miners have destroyed so much capital...
Got out of them completely when I switched to the PP in 2014. Agreed. I don't think I ever had a positive trade with either GDX or GDJX. Just always seemed to entice me at the perfectly wrong times.
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Re: Bitcoin investors are running from the crypto to invest in gold

Post by gaddyslapper007 » Tue Jan 29, 2019 1:31 pm

In the 12 months to bitcoin's peak above $20,000 in December 2017, the cryptocurrency increased in value 25 times over. Over that same stretch, gold rallied 4 percent. More than a year since bitcoin's peak, it's down 82 percent, while gold is up 2.5 percent.


Does this mean that during this timeframe a $100.00 portfolio (100% bitcoin) would be $450.00 today?... vs a (100% Gold) would be $106.60...?
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Re: Bitcoin investors are running from the crypto to invest in gold

Post by gaddyslapper007 » Wed Jan 30, 2019 8:59 am

Another question....would bitcoin be considered a good long term SOV since inception if we only looked at its yearly lows instead of highs?

Yearly Lows:
2012 -$4
2013 - $75
2014 - $200
2015 - $185
2016 - $365
2017 - $780
2018 - $3200
2019 - TBD - Currently $3400
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dualstow
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Re: Bitcoin investors are running from the crypto to invest in gold

Post by dualstow » Wed Jan 30, 2019 3:08 pm

gaddyslapper007 wrote:
Wed Jan 30, 2019 8:59 am
Another question....would bitcoin be considered a good long term SOV since inception if we only looked at its yearly lows instead of highs?
It's an iffy store of value, period.

I like the idea of what it was originally intended for, just a frictionless medium of exchange. As an investment or store of value...most vendors and individuals simply don't accept it. It's like it was made primarily for ransomware.
Gold has been above 1445
TODFTHR
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