Of note, I think you will regret getting out of gold now. I'm not saying gold is or is not good over the long haul. but I'd do it at the end of the next bear market and not at the probable top of a bull market. (If you are the market timing sort.)Kbg wrote: ↑Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:34 am BT,
I think Tyler (and other folks in the blogosphere) have laid out what you can expect from a PP and I see nothing that suggests the PP is acting any differently than it has historically. You give up 1% CAGR for less volatility compared to most other ports. That's the dealio. As a youngster, that is a bad strategy and I would never recommend it. Someone in their mid 50s, different story.
Pull up a LT chart of the Dow or the S&P 500, visually mark the LT bull market highs and bear market lows. Then transfer those marks over to a LT chart of gold...and that is why gold is in the PP (in my view) from an asset allocation perspective. Now some very simple trend systems will help you achieve the best of each asset class...but your Max DD is going to dial up significantly from a standard PP.
Of note, I think you will regret getting out of gold now. I'm not saying gold is or is not good over the long haul. but I'd do it at the end of the next bear market and not at the probable top of a bull market. (If you are the market timing sort.)
Gold didn't help much during the last bear market...it was well into the recovery before gold advanced after investors started believing in the "inflation" story that all the printing HAD to cause.