What's going on with silver?

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

Moderator: Global Moderator

User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3353
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by ochotona » Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:00 pm

The gold silver ratio is so compressed... 111:1 my goodness

I sold some AAAU and bought some silver miners... iShares SLVP ETF. Performs a bit better than SIL. Lower expense ratio.

At least if I'm going to get "paper silver" I might as well get some companies and dividends instead of whatever it is you get with a SLV. A promise.
pmward
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1731
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2019 4:39 pm

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by pmward » Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:21 pm

ochotona wrote:
Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:00 pm
The gold silver ratio is so compressed... 111:1 my goodness

I sold some AAAU and bought some silver miners... iShares SLVP ETF. Performs a bit better than SIL. Lower expense ratio.

At least if I'm going to get "paper silver" I might as well get some companies and dividends instead of whatever it is you get with a SLV. A promise.
I'm playing silver as well, currently as a short-medium term mean reversion play, but if all continues to go according to plan I am hoping to promote the position to a longer term trend play. So far it's been working out well for me. I stuck with SLV though, because the miners are still stocks... and at the moment I'm weary of stocks in general (market beta can be a bully...), and weary of how the mining industry will be effected by the virus.
User avatar
Ad Orientem
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3483
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:47 pm
Location: Florida USA
Contact:

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Ad Orientem » Fri May 15, 2020 1:50 pm

Silver +5.3% so far today. Gold up about .5%. Any idea whats going on? In a severe economic downturn, I would not expect much from silver which is an industrial metal as well as precious.
pmward
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1731
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2019 4:39 pm

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by pmward » Fri May 15, 2020 2:05 pm

Ad Orientem wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 1:50 pm
Silver +5.3% so far today. Gold up about .5%. Any idea whats going on? In a severe economic downturn, I would not expect much from silver which is an industrial metal as well as precious.
From a dark arts perspective, GLD is battling its overhead resistance at ~$165 today. Once it gets through that, it's likely to follow silver up. Fundamentally and historically speaking, look back at what happened post 2008. Silver was hit harder than gold in the liquidity squeeze. But coming out of the liquidity squeeze silver led gold all the way through the rest of the bull market phase. This is what is happening right now I believe, and was the reason I took on a silver position the moment I started seeing some relative strength vs gold. It's a repeat of that 2009 dynamic that I (and many other speculators) are hoping plays out, and in that dynamic SLV went from $9 all the way up to $48 so there is a lot of potential reward if we are proven right.

Oil is even more economically sensitive than silver, and it's been rallying lately too. Remember that markets look forward not backward (or even to the present for that matter). Economic data is likely to get better going forward, not worse. Silver also got really beaten down quite badly back in March. A lot of people feel like they missed the boat with gold, and that gold has already run up too much and that can scare away some buyers... but silver hasn't... there is still plenty of room for silver to play "catch up" and beyond. They may feel they missed the boat with gold, but they see that silver is just now leaving the dock.
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4456
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by mathjak107 » Fri May 15, 2020 5:02 pm

In 1987 I bought 2 100 ounce bars of silver .... I sold them in the 1980’s ...well here it is 2020 and they still have not even doubled from what is cost back then
User avatar
Ad Orientem
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3483
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:47 pm
Location: Florida USA
Contact:

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Ad Orientem » Fri May 15, 2020 5:26 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 5:02 pm
In 1987 I bought 2 100 ounce bars of silver .... I sold them in the 1980’s ...well here it is 2020 and they still have not even doubled from what is cost back then

Recency bias. Silver has been within spitting distance of $50 oz. The question is less where it is, than where it is going. And we have ample evidence that it can in fact go much higher in the right conditions. That said, given the industrial aspect of the metal, I remain skeptical as long as we are looking at the prospect of economic armageddon.
pmward
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1731
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2019 4:39 pm

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by pmward » Fri May 15, 2020 5:57 pm

Unlike gold I also do not see silver as an "investment" or something worth holding for a long period of time. I think it's a wonderful trading vehicle though. When it gets volatile, boy does it get volatile, both in the upward and downward direction. If you can go long or short at the right time you can really make a killing.
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4456
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by mathjak107 » Sat May 16, 2020 3:46 am

Ad Orientem wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 5:26 pm
mathjak107 wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 5:02 pm
In 1987 I bought 2 100 ounce bars of silver .... I sold them in the 1980’s ...well here it is 2020 and they still have not even doubled from what is cost back then

Recency bias. Silver has been within spitting distance of $50 oz. The question is less where it is, than where it is going. And we have ample evidence that it can in fact go much higher in the right conditions. That said, given the industrial aspect of the metal, I remain skeptical as long as we are looking at the prospect of economic armageddon.

i paid 9 bucks an ounce in 1987 ... no recency bias here ... just an investment that sucked for decades
User avatar
Ad Orientem
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3483
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:47 pm
Location: Florida USA
Contact:

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Ad Orientem » Tue Jun 23, 2020 1:25 pm

JM Bullion has 1 oz SilverTowne Buffalo Silver Rounds on sale(!) for $2.49 over spot. Holy crap. I bought a couple hundred of those back when silver was under $15 oz and with a mark up of .49 cents/oz. The premiums for physical bullion are insane. Haven't done much in metals this year, but if a rebalance becomes necessary I will be using IAU.
User avatar
Ad Orientem
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3483
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:47 pm
Location: Florida USA
Contact:

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Ad Orientem » Tue Jul 14, 2020 6:16 pm

Creeping up on $20.
User avatar
Ad Orientem
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3483
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:47 pm
Location: Florida USA
Contact:

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Ad Orientem » Mon Jul 20, 2020 11:38 am

Just blew through $20 resistance level.
User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3338
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Jul 21, 2020 9:18 am

And $21??!!

Image

I am positive on my physical silver cost for the first time in I think 9 years.

This continues to be surreal. Covid out there, but the PP and markets just seem to make daily highs. My pp is up 12.2% for the year (was -10.75% on March 19)
User avatar
Ad Orientem
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3483
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:47 pm
Location: Florida USA
Contact:

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Ad Orientem » Tue Jul 21, 2020 11:13 am

Silver is at $21.45 as I type. A couple years ago, I opined that I thought a fair price for silver was in the $18-20 range. Of course that was pre-Covid and money printing to infinity. Another possible factor is there have been lots of rumors that silver production has been waning. With gold now firmly above $1800 oz people may be looking at silver as relatively cheap. Even with the recent run up, the silver gold price ratio remains very high by historical standards, though it has come down somewhat from its insane levels of near 100:1. I bought almost all of my silver below $15/oz when the bullion dealers were practically giving it away in terms of their markups and don't think I was ever negative for more than a few days. And that not by much.

I'm not ready to sell, but for the first time in a while it's entering my mind.
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4456
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Jul 21, 2020 2:13 pm

it is only half the price it was from the 1970's lol .


i owned silver in 1987 and it was 9.20 an ounce ... 33 years it is about double .

i would say that sucked as an investment. glad i sold it decades ago
Libertarian666
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 5994
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 1969 6:00 pm

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Libertarian666 » Tue Jul 21, 2020 2:30 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Jul 21, 2020 2:13 pm
it is only half the price it was from the 1970's lol .


i owned silver in 1987 and it was 9.20 an ounce ... 33 years it is about double .

i would say that sucked as an investment. glad i sold it decades ago
I bought silver in 1980 for $48/oz.
I sold it later that year for $22. Fortunately I had also bought a bunch at $5 so I ended up about even.
User avatar
Ad Orientem
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3483
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:47 pm
Location: Florida USA
Contact:

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Ad Orientem » Tue Jul 21, 2020 3:10 pm

Silver is almost always a near to intermediate term speculation. Long term, silver has been in a bear market for around 600 years. That's not a trend I am inclined to make a long term bet against.
User avatar
Ad Orientem
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3483
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:47 pm
Location: Florida USA
Contact:

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Ad Orientem » Tue Jul 21, 2020 8:27 pm

$23.00 at 9:27 PM Eastern US time. Holy bleep!
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14231
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by dualstow » Wed Jul 22, 2020 5:59 am

Ad Orientem wrote:
Tue Jul 21, 2020 8:27 pm
$23.00 at 9:27 PM Eastern US time. Holy bleep!
Are you going to sell, Jon?
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
User avatar
Ad Orientem
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3483
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:47 pm
Location: Florida USA
Contact:

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Ad Orientem » Wed Jul 22, 2020 10:13 am

dualstow wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 5:59 am
Ad Orientem wrote:
Tue Jul 21, 2020 8:27 pm
$23.00 at 9:27 PM Eastern US time. Holy bleep!
Are you going to sell, Jon?

Not yet. When I sell I am planning to move the money into gold. I originally bought my silver as a speculation that it was cheap relative to the price of gold. Since then I have watched as the silver gold price ratio climbed to 100:1. It's now down to the high 80s. That is still fairly high though. I'd like to see it below 70 before I sell.
User avatar
Ad Orientem
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3483
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:47 pm
Location: Florida USA
Contact:

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Ad Orientem » Wed Jul 22, 2020 4:23 pm

Up another 8%. Silver is hot that if this were winter, I could just spread the bars around and not have to worry about heating the house. On a serious note I am starting to consider when to sell. The silver gold price ration has dropped to 80:1. That's still high from post 1973 standards, but it is lower than when I bought most of mine. IF/when silver tops $25 and the price ratio drops below 70:1 I am probably going to unload most of my stack.
User avatar
Ad Orientem
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3483
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:47 pm
Location: Florida USA
Contact:

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Ad Orientem » Mon Jul 27, 2020 10:21 pm

Wow. Somebody just started dumping silver. About 10 minutes it was up over $26/oz and now it's down to $24.25. That kind of movement in the space of minutes would require selling a lot of silver.
User avatar
drumminj
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 319
Joined: Wed Jul 22, 2015 9:16 pm

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by drumminj » Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:03 pm

Gold had a quick $40 drop as well.
User avatar
Ad Orientem
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3483
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:47 pm
Location: Florida USA
Contact:

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Ad Orientem » Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:06 pm

drumminj wrote:
Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:03 pm
Gold had a quick $40 drop as well.

Yeah. I saw that after I posted. Purely an educated guess, but it may have just been some large institutional investor or a big time trader booking some profit.
User avatar
Ad Orientem
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3483
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:47 pm
Location: Florida USA
Contact:

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Ad Orientem » Wed Aug 05, 2020 11:08 am

Gold just hit a fresh record high — but some say silver is set to outperform gold

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/05/investi ... rices.html
User avatar
Hal
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1349
Joined: Tue May 03, 2011 1:50 am

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Hal » Wed Aug 05, 2020 11:20 am

Ad Orientem wrote:
Wed Aug 05, 2020 11:08 am
Gold just hit a fresh record high — but some say silver is set to outperform gold

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/05/investi ... rices.html
Good Morning Ad Orientum et al,

Do you think its the USD actually taking a dive??
As an aside, down here in "The Peoples Paradise", the NON-BANK vaulting services have been closed by State Government decree.
Didn't see that coming :o

The banks remain open however....
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2020/0 ... -lockdown/
Aussie GoldSmithPP - 25% PMGOLD, 75% VDCO
Post Reply