What's going on with silver?

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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dualstow
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by dualstow » Wed Jul 22, 2020 5:59 am

Ad Orientem wrote:
Tue Jul 21, 2020 8:27 pm
$23.00 at 9:27 PM Eastern US time. Holy bleep!
Are you going to sell, Jon?
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Ad Orientem » Wed Jul 22, 2020 10:13 am

dualstow wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 5:59 am
Ad Orientem wrote:
Tue Jul 21, 2020 8:27 pm
$23.00 at 9:27 PM Eastern US time. Holy bleep!
Are you going to sell, Jon?

Not yet. When I sell I am planning to move the money into gold. I originally bought my silver as a speculation that it was cheap relative to the price of gold. Since then I have watched as the silver gold price ratio climbed to 100:1. It's now down to the high 80s. That is still fairly high though. I'd like to see it below 70 before I sell.
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Ad Orientem » Wed Jul 22, 2020 4:23 pm

Up another 8%. Silver is hot that if this were winter, I could just spread the bars around and not have to worry about heating the house. On a serious note I am starting to consider when to sell. The silver gold price ration has dropped to 80:1. That's still high from post 1973 standards, but it is lower than when I bought most of mine. IF/when silver tops $25 and the price ratio drops below 70:1 I am probably going to unload most of my stack.
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Ad Orientem » Mon Jul 27, 2020 10:21 pm

Wow. Somebody just started dumping silver. About 10 minutes it was up over $26/oz and now it's down to $24.25. That kind of movement in the space of minutes would require selling a lot of silver.
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by drumminj » Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:03 pm

Gold had a quick $40 drop as well.
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Ad Orientem » Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:06 pm

drumminj wrote:
Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:03 pm
Gold had a quick $40 drop as well.

Yeah. I saw that after I posted. Purely an educated guess, but it may have just been some large institutional investor or a big time trader booking some profit.
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Ad Orientem » Wed Aug 05, 2020 11:08 am

Gold just hit a fresh record high — but some say silver is set to outperform gold

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/05/investi ... rices.html
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Hal » Wed Aug 05, 2020 11:20 am

Ad Orientem wrote:
Wed Aug 05, 2020 11:08 am
Gold just hit a fresh record high — but some say silver is set to outperform gold

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/05/investi ... rices.html
Good Morning Ad Orientum et al,

Do you think its the USD actually taking a dive??
As an aside, down here in "The Peoples Paradise", the NON-BANK vaulting services have been closed by State Government decree.
Didn't see that coming :o

The banks remain open however....
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2020/0 ... -lockdown/
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Xan » Wed Aug 05, 2020 11:27 am

Hal,

What is a non-bank vaulting service? Are you saying that people's safe deposit boxes are unavailable? Does this affect eg the Perth Mint?
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Ad Orientem » Wed Aug 05, 2020 11:36 am

Hal wrote:
Wed Aug 05, 2020 11:20 am
Ad Orientem wrote:
Wed Aug 05, 2020 11:08 am
Gold just hit a fresh record high — but some say silver is set to outperform gold

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/05/investi ... rices.html
Good Morning Ad Orientum et al,

Do you think its the USD actually taking a dive??
As an aside, down here in "The Peoples Paradise", the NON-BANK vaulting services have been closed by State Government decree.
Didn't see that coming :o

The banks remain open however....
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2020/0 ... -lockdown/

I think dollar weakness is part of the equation. (cf this https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/04/the-fe ... -soon.html) But in the case of silver there are other factors at work. Silver tends to be more volatile than gold. So when gold is hot, silver is often smoking. And the reverse is true. During the multi-year lag after 2011 where PMs retreated and then tread water for long period, silver got killed. The silver/gold price ratio has been climbing for years to the point where it recently topped 100:1. That was nuts. So for the last few years silver has been dirt cheap compared to gold. In addition to being undervalued as a PM, many analysts see a likely increase in industrial demand. Unlike gold, where once you get past jewelry and the occasional odd dental work, there are relatively few practical uses; silver is also an industrial metal. Techy stuff in particular consumes a lot of silver and the demand is forecast to grow. Also analysts are predicting a gradual decline in production for a variety of reasons. So in the near term, silver might well have some room to run and outperform gold.
Last edited by Ad Orientem on Wed Aug 05, 2020 12:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Hal » Wed Aug 05, 2020 12:11 pm

Xan wrote:
Wed Aug 05, 2020 11:27 am
Hal,

What is a non-bank vaulting service? Are you saying that people's safe deposit boxes are unavailable? Does this affect eg the Perth Mint?
Hi Xan,
A non-bank vaulting service is a private vault full of safety deposit boxes, and you are correct. No access for the next six weeks!
This law affects Victoria only at the moment, so the Perth Mint in Western Australia is unaffected.

Here is an example of a private vaulting service

https://guardianvaults.com.au

ps: Any government, anywhere could enact a law like this. We also have a curfew.... its like being under occupation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s6NPpO4gbeU
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Xan » Wed Aug 05, 2020 12:19 pm

I'm befuddled. What could be the virus-related rationale to shutting people out of their safe deposit boxes??
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by pugchief » Wed Aug 05, 2020 12:28 pm

Xan wrote:
Wed Aug 05, 2020 12:19 pm
I'm befuddled. What could be the virus-related rationale to shutting people out of their safe deposit boxes??
To intentionally create panic? Not that I believe in conspiracy theories, but there is no other logic available to some of these edicts.
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Hal » Wed Aug 05, 2020 12:56 pm

pugchief wrote:
Wed Aug 05, 2020 12:28 pm
Xan wrote:
Wed Aug 05, 2020 12:19 pm
I'm befuddled. What could be the virus-related rationale to shutting people out of their safe deposit boxes??
To intentionally create panic? Not that I believe in conspiracy theories, but there is no other logic available to some of these edicts.
If nothing else, it proves HB's advice to have your assets in different jurisdictions.
Honestly, I thought that PP advice was extreme, but it is actually very sound.

btw, only one visitor was allowed in the vault at a time, so its hardly a "social distancing" matter.
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Smith1776 » Wed Aug 05, 2020 1:24 pm

Maybe the federales shut it down when they caught Mike Ehrmantraut passing a few million in gold to his granddaughter. O0
"This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the "hidden" confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process." - Alan Greenspan, 1966
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Hal » Wed Aug 05, 2020 1:53 pm

Smith1776 wrote:
Wed Aug 05, 2020 1:24 pm
Maybe the federales shut it down when they caught Mike Ehrmantraut passing a few million in gold to his granddaughter. O0
It was just one coin.... ::)
https://www.perthmint.com/1-tonne-gold-coin.aspx

Mike must have been over to Perth as well
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Libertarian666 » Wed Aug 05, 2020 4:32 pm

Hal wrote:
Wed Aug 05, 2020 12:56 pm
pugchief wrote:
Wed Aug 05, 2020 12:28 pm
Xan wrote:
Wed Aug 05, 2020 12:19 pm
I'm befuddled. What could be the virus-related rationale to shutting people out of their safe deposit boxes??
To intentionally create panic? Not that I believe in conspiracy theories, but there is no other logic available to some of these edicts.
If nothing else, it proves HB's advice to have your assets in different jurisdictions.
Honestly, I thought that PP advice was extreme, but it is actually very sound.

btw, only one visitor was allowed in the vault at a time, so its hardly a "social distancing" matter.
Apparently they can get away with almost anything if they say it's because of covid.
Yes, jurisdictional diversity is valuable.
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Aug 06, 2020 8:57 am

Damn, when silver gets going, it sure can go quick!
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Ad Orientem » Thu Aug 06, 2020 11:57 am

Silver gold price ratio now down to 73:1.
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Aug 06, 2020 7:20 pm

Almost 30. Man, this keeps up, I will blow some money on some puts.
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Smith1776 » Thu Aug 06, 2020 7:24 pm

My big concern with the metals run up is that this could be the aftermath of the 2008/2009 banking crisis all over again.

It seems to me that the last time there was this kind price action it was due to a fear of inflation stemming from all the QE and stimulus. When consumer price levels didn't surge as some expected metals became less appealing and prices tanked. We'll see what happens this time...
"This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the "hidden" confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process." - Alan Greenspan, 1966
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by drumminj » Thu Aug 06, 2020 7:40 pm

Smith1776 wrote:
Thu Aug 06, 2020 7:24 pm
My big concern with the metals run up is that this could be the aftermath of the 2008/2009 banking crisis all over again.

It seems to me that the last time there was this kind price action it was due to a fear of inflation stemming from all the QE and stimulus. When consumer price levels didn't surge as some expected metals became less appealing and prices tanked. We'll see what happens this time...
Great. I would love the chance to sell my silver at $55/oz again! :)
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Ad Orientem » Thu Aug 06, 2020 7:57 pm

Smith1776 wrote:
Thu Aug 06, 2020 7:24 pm
My big concern with the metals run up is that this could be the aftermath of the 2008/2009 banking crisis all over again.

It seems to me that the last time there was this kind price action it was due to a fear of inflation stemming from all the QE and stimulus. When consumer price levels didn't surge as some expected metals became less appealing and prices tanked. We'll see what happens this time...

I agree. I can understand PMs moving up a bit given monetary policy and where the economy is. But inflation is currently negligible. Silver is also an industrial metal and is used in a lot of techy stuff. But this is getting crazy. I would not be surprised to see a moderate correction in the near future.
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Ad Orientem » Tue Aug 11, 2020 4:39 pm

Image


Silver meets the ugly stick.
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Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by dualstow » Mon Aug 31, 2020 12:09 pm

What’s going on with silver? A lot.
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