Gold to bounce soon?

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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eufo
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Re: Gold to bounce soon?

Post by eufo » Sun Aug 19, 2018 10:03 am

ochotona wrote:
Sun Aug 19, 2018 9:36 am
Gold sentiment not bad enough, Hulbert index needs to go more negative...

Patience!

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-g ... 2018-08-17
"slope of hope" Lol!
Don't agree with me too strongly or I'm going to change my mind
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buddtholomew
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Re: Gold to bounce soon?

Post by buddtholomew » Sun Aug 19, 2018 11:20 am

eufo wrote:
Sun Aug 19, 2018 9:26 am
buddtholomew wrote:
Sun Aug 19, 2018 9:20 am
eufo wrote:
Sun Aug 19, 2018 8:35 am
Should we ever complain that a physical asset is becoming cheaper? I was watching an interview yesterday where the assertion was made that this is a mainly US phenomenon; that US investors tend to be trend followers and only want to buy what's going up. It's been my experience that nearly everyone I know here is like that.

I love these low prices, but I'm underweight everything save cash, so maybe I'm biased.
Double check that you are actually better off waiting to invest in the other assets. I’m + over 1MM YTD...you do realize that the S&P is +ve +7% and SCV for me + 12.5% YTD.
Oh yeah, for sure. I'm overweight cash from selling out of most of my small cap and mid cap exposure (IJR & IJH, respectively). I still hold some equities, but I'm underweight. I'll likely remain that way unless there is a big move either direction.

Something seems wrong in the market, so I'm not in a rush to get back to 40% equities.
Your market timing is flawless.
Why bother with the PP?
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eufo
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Re: Gold to bounce soon?

Post by eufo » Sun Aug 19, 2018 11:28 am

buddtholomew wrote:
Sun Aug 19, 2018 11:20 am
eufo wrote:
Sun Aug 19, 2018 9:26 am
buddtholomew wrote:
Sun Aug 19, 2018 9:20 am


Double check that you are actually better off waiting to invest in the other assets. I’m + over 1MM YTD...you do realize that the S&P is +ve +7% and SCV for me + 12.5% YTD.
Oh yeah, for sure. I'm overweight cash from selling out of most of my small cap and mid cap exposure (IJR & IJH, respectively). I still hold some equities, but I'm underweight. I'll likely remain that way unless there is a big move either direction.

Something seems wrong in the market, so I'm not in a rush to get back to 40% equities.
Your market timing is flawless.
Why bother with the PP?
Indeed.
Don't agree with me too strongly or I'm going to change my mind
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buddtholomew
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Re: Gold to bounce soon?

Post by buddtholomew » Sun Aug 19, 2018 11:52 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Sat Aug 18, 2018 9:38 pm
I don't need a double, what I would like to see on a reasonably alternating basis is an asset leading for one year to pull gains out and rebalance into laggards. Back and forth, back and forth while the overall trajectory is up and to the right.

Problem for a while here has been gold hasn't been in take profits mode for a yearly rebalance, it has been a laggard.
Yes; in a perfect world each of the 3 assets would follow the scenario outlined above. I don’t personally buy into the agnostic 4x25 allocation anymore. Why would you when stocks rise 70% of the time? I’ll hold enough gold and LTT’s to buoy the portfolio in times of inflation/deflation, knowing full well that any gains in these assets will go back into stocks for further potential gains.

I’m done taking gold personally and as Sophie said it will be there when you need it.
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Cortopassi
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Re: Gold to bounce soon?

Post by Cortopassi » Sun Aug 19, 2018 8:16 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Sun Aug 19, 2018 11:52 am
I’m done taking gold personally and as Sophie said it will be there when you need it.
Yeah, pretty much me too.
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dualstow
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Re: Gold to bounce soon?

Post by dualstow » Thu Aug 23, 2018 12:55 pm

I nibbled today.
Vanguard treasury money market still paying 2.17%
TODFTHR
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buddtholomew
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Re: Gold to bounce soon?

Post by buddtholomew » Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:09 pm

dualstow wrote:
Thu Aug 23, 2018 12:55 pm
I nibbled today.
I’m buying EEM instead; we’re both in the same boat waiting for the USD to drop.
Good luck DS!
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Re: Gold to bounce soon?

Post by dualstow » Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:22 pm

Same to you.
Vanguard treasury money market still paying 2.17%
TODFTHR
whatchamacallit
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Re: Gold to bounce soon?

Post by whatchamacallit » Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:35 pm

Nice chart in article. Indicates good time to buy commodities which includes gold.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/timin ... 2018-08-23


But when I compare years to gold price it makes me wonder if it is 1986 buy instead of a 1998 buy.

https://goldprice.org/gold-price-history.html
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Cortopassi
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Re: Gold to bounce soon?

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Aug 23, 2018 10:02 pm

whatchamacallit wrote:
Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:35 pm
Nice chart in article. Indicates good time to buy commodities which includes gold.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/timin ... 2018-08-23


But when I compare years to gold price it makes me wonder if it is 1986 buy instead of a 1998 buy.

https://goldprice.org/gold-price-history.html
Or the broader market is just too expensive and ready for a drop.
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buddtholomew
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Re: Gold to bounce soon?

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Aug 24, 2018 3:20 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:09 pm
dualstow wrote:
Thu Aug 23, 2018 12:55 pm
I nibbled today.
I’m buying EEM instead; we’re both in the same boat waiting for the USD to drop.
Good luck DS!
Don’t get any ideas DS O0
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Re: Gold to bounce soon?

Post by hardlawjockey » Sat Aug 25, 2018 10:36 am

buddtholomew wrote:
Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:09 pm
dualstow wrote:
Thu Aug 23, 2018 12:55 pm
I nibbled today.
I’m buying EEM instead; we’re both in the same boat waiting for the USD to drop.
Good luck DS!
Did the USD just drop? Was watching Fox Business and noticed in the ticker that gold was up $20 at the time. Strangely, stocks were also up and setting all time highs, and bond yields were down slightly. Must have been a good day for the PP. I'm keeping my resolution to only look at my portfolio at re-balance time once a year but it probably would have been a good day to look.
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