Precious metals historical data shootout + Platinum /Palladium:

[Mike59]

My research question: is palladium (or platinum)  worth a look as part of the gold component in the PP? (I can already hear the resounding "NO!" from the chorus of purists  )

In a bout of self indulgence, I compiled year over year return data from 1970-2015 for the 4 major precious metals (January to January returns):

GOLD
MIN                     -27.69%
MAX             99.74%
AVERAGE            10.63%
MEDIAN               3.28%
% UP YEARS:     64.44%


SILVER
MIN                   -48.35%
MAX           400.00%
AVERAGE          13.75%
MEDIAN             0.00%
% UP YEARS:     48.89%


PLATINUM
MIN                 -39.91%
MAX          125.83%
AVERAGE 8.35%
MEDIAN         5.39%
% UP YEARS: 57.78%

PALLADIUM
MIN              -61.90%
MAX                   203.89%
AVERAGE     17.53%
MEDIAN               9.13%
% UP YEARS:     60.00%

Some conclusions:
- Silver is a zero sum game and appears to be a gamble over the others
- Palladium offers nearly the same chance of an up year compared with gold, with about a 2x risk profile , the volatility may be too much for a PP but perhaps it is the most superior metals play in a VP
- Gold offers a more reliable chance of a positive return than platinum with lower risk and lower downside 

Hopefully someone finds this data useful!

[MachineGhost]

NO!  It's an industrial metal like platinum (substitute actually), silver and other rare earth metals.

[ochotona]

Why has Palladium performed better than the other shiny things during 2013-2015?

[lordmetroid]

Why has Palladium performed better than the other shiny things during 2013-2015?

The demand has been greater than the supply. Now the platinum price are sinking because enough investment has been made to secure the needed greater supply.

[ochotona]

That's interesting about platinum... any thoughts about where palladium supply / demand are headed? I thought palladium was used in parallel with platinum in automotive catalytic converters, but palladium's price has really been different than platinum's.

I wish there were some lithium ETFs, but my understanding is that this metal is not publicly traded.

Why has Palladium performed better than the other shiny things during 2013-2015?

The demand has been greater than the supply. Now the platinum price are sinking because enough investment has been made to secure the needed greater supply.

[MachineGhost]

Platinum is used in diesel automobiles.

Palladium is used in gasoline automobiles.

China has a pollution problem.

2 + 2 = 4.