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Will the gold market survive the atomic-scale personal manufacturing future?

Posted: Fri Feb 20, 2015 10:10 pm
by Pointedstick
What happens to the value of gold when we inevitably develop a atomic-scale 3D personal manufacturing device capable of synthesizing gold atoms?

Before this happens, I expect molecule-scale machines will take individual atoms as input and re-arrange them into whatever you want (as today we have machines that liquify and arrange compounds), but at some point, possible sooner than we might imagine, someone's gonna invent a thingy that can take a sludge of neutrons, protons, and electrons, and spit out gold. It's hard for me to avoid thinking that when that day starts to look like it's approaching, the gold market is going to collapse overnight. And there goes 25% of our portfolios.

Then again, I guess such a world-changing technology might cause a lot of markets to collapse overnight.

Neal Stephenson's novel The Diamond Age explored this idea, with the book's title being a reference to the idea that once they were able to, it made the most sense for people to fabricate virtually everything out of diamond due to its desirable mechanical properties.

Re: Will the gold market survive the atomic-scale personal manufacturing future?

Posted: Fri Feb 20, 2015 10:48 pm
by dragoncar
Pointedstick wrote: What happens to the value of gold when we inevitably develop a atomic-scale 3D personal manufacturing device capable of synthesizing gold atoms?

Before this happens, I expect molecule-scale machines will take individual atoms as input and re-arrange them into whatever you want (as today we have machines that liquify and arrange compounds), but at some point, possible sooner than we might imagine, someone's gonna invent a thingy that can take a sludge of neutrons, protons, and electrons, and spit out gold. It's hard for me to avoid thinking that when that day starts to look like it's approaching, the gold market is going to collapse overnight. And there goes 25% of our portfolios.

Then again, I guess such a world-changing technology might cause a lot of markets to collapse overnight.

Neal Stephenson's novel The Diamond Age explored this idea, with the book's title being a reference to the idea that once they were able to, it made the most sense for people to fabricate virtually everything out of diamond due to its desirable mechanical properties.
Yeah, if we had such machines, I don't think money would matter.  See Star Trek your avatar.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jp3OhC3NoMk

I really liked Diamond Age though.

Re: Will the gold market survive the atomic-scale personal manufacturing future?

Posted: Fri Feb 20, 2015 11:53 pm
by Mark Leavy
Pointedstick wrote: What happens to the value of gold when we inevitably develop a atomic-scale 3D personal manufacturing device capable of synthesizing gold atoms?
As a huge fan of Neal Stephenson, the Diamond Age, gold, nano-fabrication, materials science - and physics in general...

... I just love this question.  It is insightful on many levels.

However, I've always worked on the premise that if I can't figure out how to do it, no one can.  So far, I haven't come up with anything cost effective.

PS, I'll be the first to let you know when I have it solved.

Re: Will the gold market survive the atomic-scale personal manufacturing future?

Posted: Sat Feb 21, 2015 1:14 am
by KevinW
Agreed, atomic manufacturing would disrupt pretty much everything. Couldn't you fabricate any physical object at a whim? And couldn't you fix any health problem, even aging? If material goods, health, and time all cease to be scarce, do economics and politics bear any resemblance to what we know now?

Re: Will the gold market survive the atomic-scale personal manufacturing future?

Posted: Sat Feb 21, 2015 5:19 am
by Pet Hog
PS, a machine that takes individual atoms and assembles them into anything you want is, in effect, performing chemical synthesis.  That's currently really hard to do on anything other than the nanoscale (more like the angstrom-scale), but such a technology is feasible.  But mixing protons, neutrons, and electrons to fabricate atoms?  That's nuclear fusion.  Do you really think we will soon have such "personal manufacturing devices" and that people will use them just to create gold?  Wouldn't the first people to get their hands on such a contraption be tempted to make a few tons of radioactive uranium or plutonium and take the whole world hostage?  That's going to be one hell of an arms race!

Re: Will the gold market survive the atomic-scale personal manufacturing future?

Posted: Sat Feb 21, 2015 8:23 am
by goodasgold
Pet Hog wrote: ... a machine that takes individual atoms and assembles them into anything you want is, in effect, performing chemical synthesis.
Is it too late to sell all of my Krugerrands and put everything into AIF (the Alchemy Index Fund???)

Joe Granville says it's a sure thing!

Re: Will the gold market survive the atomic-scale personal manufacturing future?

Posted: Sat Feb 21, 2015 9:40 am
by sixdollars
Pointedstick wrote: Before this happens, I expect molecule-scale machines will take individual atoms as input and re-arrange them into whatever you want (as today we have machines that liquify and arrange compounds), but at some point, possible sooner than we might imagine, someone's gonna invent a thingy that can take a sludge of neutrons, protons, and electrons, and spit out gold.
Ahh, some interesting names come to mind, all involving the name Midas..  ;D

It's quite possible in theory I guess.. but how soon are you talking about here and what makes you come to that conclusion?  The idea of something like this even happening in our lifetime seems bizarre and too outwordly to me.  Definitely fun to think about though

Re: Will the gold market survive the atomic-scale personal manufacturing future?

Posted: Sat Feb 21, 2015 10:09 am
by Pointedstick
I guess it's true that synthesizing atoms is a long way off and requires a bunch of technology we don't have yet. But I guess that element-scale fab machines aren't too far off. I already have a couple of machines that are capable of taking a reel of ABS or PLA plastic, melting it, and extruding it into a new shape. It's not too tough to envision a refined version that has a much higher detail level and draws from tanks of molten iron, carbon, silicon, or whatever else you might want. None of the tech behind such a thing has yet to be invented; it's simply a matter of optimizing everything until it all works together.

With such a machine, I guess you would still need molten gold to make something with gold components or fabricate custom coins or something. That would probably not drop the bottom out of the gold market, but I wonder if it would cause the metal to behave a little bit more as an industrial metal like silver.

Re: Will the gold market survive the atomic-scale personal manufacturing future?

Posted: Sat Feb 21, 2015 10:21 am
by dualstow
I'm surprised no one has said exactly this yet: wouldn't it be worth it? I'll take a 25% haircut to be able to manufacture anything from any material. First by companies, then by individuals. It's a good trade. Dragoncar did say that money wouldn't matter. Close enough.

The Diamond Age was my first Neal Stephenson novel, btw. So great.

Re: Will the gold market survive the atomic-scale personal manufacturing future?

Posted: Sat Feb 21, 2015 1:12 pm
by MachineGhost
Pointedstick wrote: Neal Stephenson's novel The Diamond Age explored this idea, with the book's title being a reference to the idea that once they were able to, it made the most sense for people to fabricate virtually everything out of diamond due to its desirable mechanical properties.
Rare, colored natural diamonds full of flaws continue to go up in price.  People still value the real thing as they are marvels of nature.  That's one reason I avoid common modern bullion in favor of semi-numismatic.  There's more value than just the gold content.  Value is not just economic, but metaphyical.

But I wonder...  in theory you could atomize up, say, a MS65 1913 $20 St. Gauden's even down to any aging.  So I think the big problem here will be in counterfeitng, not that gold would be easy to synthesize.  The grading companies are going to have to come up with some really innovative fraud detection mechanisms.

Re: Will the gold market survive the atomic-scale personal manufacturing future?

Posted: Sat Feb 21, 2015 1:16 pm
by MachineGhost
That was awesome!  I'm half-way to the 24th century already. ;D

Re: Will the gold market survive the atomic-scale personal manufacturing future?

Posted: Sat Feb 21, 2015 3:23 pm
by Mike59
Reminds me of a discussion in a silver board i used to follow about mining to soon take place on the moon and other moons in our solar system, crashing silver back to less than a buck and maybe gold back below $50 . That is, if we ever really got to the moon or outside the van allen belt in the first place :o

Re: Will the gold market survive the atomic-scale personal manufacturing future?

Posted: Sun Feb 22, 2015 8:56 am
by I Shrugged
If the replicator was able to make T-bone steak and cabernet, why couldn't it make latinum?

Wait, I just did a search.  Apparently this has been asked and answered, lol:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Replicator_(Star_Trek)
The drawback of doing so is that it is impossible to replicate objects with complicated quantum structures, such as living beings, dilithium, or latinum. In reality, living beings and/or cited elements are not necessarily more complex on a quantum level; the putative 'extra complexity' is used an in-universe function to head off questions such as 'why can't Starfleet replicate people?'

Re: Will the gold market survive the atomic-scale personal manufacturing future?

Posted: Sun Feb 22, 2015 9:16 am
by MachineGhost
I call B.S.!.  The transporter reassembles "complicated quantum structures" atom by atom, so so can the replicator. 
I Shrugged wrote: If the replicator was able to make T-bone steak and cabernet, why couldn't it make latinum?

Wait, I just did a search.  Apparently this has been asked and answered, lol:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Replicator_(Star_Trek)
The drawback of doing so is that it is impossible to replicate objects with complicated quantum structures, such as living beings, dilithium, or latinum. In reality, living beings and/or cited elements are not necessarily more complex on a quantum level; the putative 'extra complexity' is used an in-universe function to head off questions such as 'why can't Starfleet replicate people?'

Re: Will the gold market survive the atomic-scale personal manufacturing future?

Posted: Mon Feb 23, 2015 1:47 pm
by Libertarian666
Pointedstick wrote: I guess it's true that synthesizing atoms is a long way off and requires a bunch of technology we don't have yet. But I guess that element-scale fab machines aren't too far off. I already have a couple of machines that are capable of taking a reel of ABS or PLA plastic, melting it, and extruding it into a new shape. It's not too tough to envision a refined version that has a much higher detail level and draws from tanks of molten iron, carbon, silicon, or whatever else you might want. None of the tech behind such a thing has yet to be invented; it's simply a matter of optimizing everything until it all works together.

With such a machine, I guess you would still need molten gold to make something with gold components or fabricate custom coins or something. That would probably not drop the bottom out of the gold market, but I wonder if it would cause the metal to behave a little bit more as an industrial metal like silver.
I don't get this at all. Gold can already be melted and recast into whatever shape you want. It is used as money not because it has no other uses but because that is its highest economic value.

Cost-effective transmutation of arbitrary elements into one another (or synthesis of elements out of elementary particles), of course, is another matter altogether, but I doubt any of us will live to see it.

By the way, the latter issue has already been discussed quite a bit in economic circles, citing a science fiction story that I read many years ago (but didn't know was so famous): http://quillandkeyboard.blogspot.com/20 ... uring.html

Re: Will the gold market survive the atomic-scale personal manufacturing future?

Posted: Mon Feb 23, 2015 4:17 pm
by Kriegsspiel
Mike59 wrote: Reminds me of a discussion in a silver board i used to follow about mining to soon take place on the moon and other moons in our solar system, crashing silver back to less than a buck and maybe gold back below $50 . That is, if we ever really got to the moon or outside the van allen belt in the first place :o
"Soon?" I'm all for eventually, but I haven't heard of much to suggest that 'soon' and 'cheaply enough to crash silver and gold prices' at the same time.

Re: Will the gold market survive the atomic-scale personal manufacturing future?

Posted: Tue Mar 17, 2015 8:04 pm
by Pointedstick
Well that didn't take long: http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/chemistry-revo ... ch-1492170

Technically it's molecular-scale and not atomic-scale, but still… damn.

Re: Will the gold market survive the atomic-scale personal manufacturing future?

Posted: Tue Mar 17, 2015 8:30 pm
by MachineGhost
Holy Sweet Mary Mother of Jesus!!!

Gold is doomed.  Doomed!

Re: Will the gold market survive the atomic-scale personal manufacturing future?

Posted: Tue Mar 17, 2015 9:58 pm
by Tortoise
I welcome the day gold is doomed because we're able to synthesize it cheaply. It will mean we can also synthesize countless other elements and molecules cheaply as well, which will increase my quality of life dramatically.

Re: Will the gold market survive the atomic-scale personal manufacturing future?

Posted: Wed Mar 18, 2015 9:53 am
by Libertarian666
Pointedstick wrote: Well that didn't take long: http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/chemistry-revo ... ch-1492170

Technically it's molecular-scale and not atomic-scale, but still… damn.
You need nucleonic scale to synthesize gold. I'm not holding my breath waiting for that.

Re: Will the gold market survive the atomic-scale personal manufacturing future?

Posted: Wed Mar 18, 2015 4:53 pm
by MachineGhost
Here's a true 3D printer...

http://www.fastcoexist.com/3043783/a-ne ... odays-tech

As an aside, IMO this all illustrates the sheer stupidity of buying bland boring common buillion gold.  Buy coins that have artistic merit or collectible merit.  It'll protect you better against 3D nanoprinting.

Re: Will the gold market survive the atomic-scale personal manufacturing future?

Posted: Wed Mar 18, 2015 5:19 pm
by Tyler
It's already possible to create gold at an atomic level in a lab.  From Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synthesis_ ... ous_metals):
Gold synthesis in a nuclear reactor
Gold was synthesized from mercury by neutron bombardment in 1941, but the isotopes of gold produced were all radioactive.[12] In 1924, a Japanese physicist, Hantaro Nagaoka, accomplished the same feat.[13]

Gold can currently be manufactured in a nuclear reactor by irradiation either of platinum or mercury.

Only the mercury isotope 196Hg, which occurs with a frequency of 0.15% in natural mercury, can be converted to gold by slow neutron capture, and following electron capture, decay into gold's only stable isotope, 197Au. When other mercury isotopes are irradiated with slow neutrons, they also undergo neutron capture, but either convert into each other or beta decay into the thallium isotopes 203Tl and 205Tl.

Using fast neutrons, the mercury isotope 198Hg, which composes 9.97% of natural mercury, can be converted by splitting off a neutron and becoming 197Hg, which then disintegrates to stable gold. This reaction, however, possesses a smaller activation cross-section and is feasible only with un-moderated reactors.

It is also possible to eject several neutrons with very high energy into the other mercury isotopes in order to form 197Hg. However such high-energy neutrons can be produced only by particle accelerators.

In 1980, Glenn Seaborg transmuted several thousand atoms of bismuth into gold at the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory. His experimental technique, using nuclear physics, was able to remove protons and neutrons from the bismuth atoms. Seaborg's technique would have been far too expensive to enable the routine manufacture of gold, however.[14][15]


The problem is the energy required.  In the last Seaborg experiment, it cost $10,000 to create one billionth of a cent in gold.  Not exactly a profitable enterprise.

Manipulating molecules is just chemistry.  Creating new atoms requires tremendous amounts of energy, and that will be cost-prohibitive until (and perhaps far beyond) something like cheap fusion technology is widespread.  At that point, the economy will be so much different than it is today that I'm not sure we'll be thinking much about the price of gold.  I predict we'll be mining asteroids for gold and other elements far before we get around to producing them ourselves.

Re: Will the gold market survive the atomic-scale personal manufacturing future?

Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2015 10:53 am
by Libertarian666
MachineGhost wrote: Here's a true 3D printer...

http://www.fastcoexist.com/3043783/a-ne ... odays-tech

As an aside, IMO this all illustrates the sheer stupidity of buying bland boring common buillion gold.  Buy coins that have artistic merit or collectible merit.  It'll protect you better against 3D nanoprinting.
You've lost me. Why would 3D nanoprinting affect the value of a bullion gold coin?

Re: Will the gold market survive the atomic-scale personal manufacturing future?

Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2015 11:55 am
by MachineGhost
Libertarian666 wrote: You've lost me. Why would 3D nanoprinting affect the value of a bullion gold coin?
No intrinsic value beyond the gold atoms?  Unlike natural diamonds which have flaws to tell them apart from synthetic, how are you going to tell a bar of nanosynthetic gold bullion apart from the genuine article?  With gold coins -- especially [semi]numismatic -- there's intrinsic value beyond just the gold atoms.

Re: Will the gold market survive the atomic-scale personal manufacturing future?

Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2015 12:05 pm
by l82start
with the exception of coins that were slabbed before the invention of nanoprinting how will you tell a coin (printed atom by atom) from a minted one? i would think the printer would be able to create/ build-in every detail left by the minting process in atomically accurate detail? possibly including effects of aging and wear.