Will the gold market survive the atomic-scale personal manufacturing future?

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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I Shrugged
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Re: Will the gold market survive the atomic-scale personal manufacturing future?

Post by I Shrugged »

If the replicator was able to make T-bone steak and cabernet, why couldn't it make latinum?

Wait, I just did a search.  Apparently this has been asked and answered, lol:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Replicator_(Star_Trek)
The drawback of doing so is that it is impossible to replicate objects with complicated quantum structures, such as living beings, dilithium, or latinum. In reality, living beings and/or cited elements are not necessarily more complex on a quantum level; the putative 'extra complexity' is used an in-universe function to head off questions such as 'why can't Starfleet replicate people?'
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Re: Will the gold market survive the atomic-scale personal manufacturing future?

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I call B.S.!.  The transporter reassembles "complicated quantum structures" atom by atom, so so can the replicator. 
I Shrugged wrote: If the replicator was able to make T-bone steak and cabernet, why couldn't it make latinum?

Wait, I just did a search.  Apparently this has been asked and answered, lol:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Replicator_(Star_Trek)
The drawback of doing so is that it is impossible to replicate objects with complicated quantum structures, such as living beings, dilithium, or latinum. In reality, living beings and/or cited elements are not necessarily more complex on a quantum level; the putative 'extra complexity' is used an in-universe function to head off questions such as 'why can't Starfleet replicate people?'
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Re: Will the gold market survive the atomic-scale personal manufacturing future?

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Pointedstick wrote: I guess it's true that synthesizing atoms is a long way off and requires a bunch of technology we don't have yet. But I guess that element-scale fab machines aren't too far off. I already have a couple of machines that are capable of taking a reel of ABS or PLA plastic, melting it, and extruding it into a new shape. It's not too tough to envision a refined version that has a much higher detail level and draws from tanks of molten iron, carbon, silicon, or whatever else you might want. None of the tech behind such a thing has yet to be invented; it's simply a matter of optimizing everything until it all works together.

With such a machine, I guess you would still need molten gold to make something with gold components or fabricate custom coins or something. That would probably not drop the bottom out of the gold market, but I wonder if it would cause the metal to behave a little bit more as an industrial metal like silver.
I don't get this at all. Gold can already be melted and recast into whatever shape you want. It is used as money not because it has no other uses but because that is its highest economic value.

Cost-effective transmutation of arbitrary elements into one another (or synthesis of elements out of elementary particles), of course, is another matter altogether, but I doubt any of us will live to see it.

By the way, the latter issue has already been discussed quite a bit in economic circles, citing a science fiction story that I read many years ago (but didn't know was so famous): http://quillandkeyboard.blogspot.com/20 ... uring.html
Last edited by Libertarian666 on Mon Feb 23, 2015 1:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Will the gold market survive the atomic-scale personal manufacturing future?

Post by Kriegsspiel »

Mike59 wrote: Reminds me of a discussion in a silver board i used to follow about mining to soon take place on the moon and other moons in our solar system, crashing silver back to less than a buck and maybe gold back below $50 . That is, if we ever really got to the moon or outside the van allen belt in the first place :o
"Soon?" I'm all for eventually, but I haven't heard of much to suggest that 'soon' and 'cheaply enough to crash silver and gold prices' at the same time.
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Re: Will the gold market survive the atomic-scale personal manufacturing future?

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Well that didn't take long: http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/chemistry-revo ... ch-1492170

Technically it's molecular-scale and not atomic-scale, but still… damn.
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MachineGhost
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Re: Will the gold market survive the atomic-scale personal manufacturing future?

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Holy Sweet Mary Mother of Jesus!!!

Gold is doomed.  Doomed!
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Re: Will the gold market survive the atomic-scale personal manufacturing future?

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I welcome the day gold is doomed because we're able to synthesize it cheaply. It will mean we can also synthesize countless other elements and molecules cheaply as well, which will increase my quality of life dramatically.
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Re: Will the gold market survive the atomic-scale personal manufacturing future?

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Pointedstick wrote: Well that didn't take long: http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/chemistry-revo ... ch-1492170

Technically it's molecular-scale and not atomic-scale, but still… damn.
You need nucleonic scale to synthesize gold. I'm not holding my breath waiting for that.
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Re: Will the gold market survive the atomic-scale personal manufacturing future?

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Here's a true 3D printer...

http://www.fastcoexist.com/3043783/a-ne ... odays-tech

As an aside, IMO this all illustrates the sheer stupidity of buying bland boring common buillion gold.  Buy coins that have artistic merit or collectible merit.  It'll protect you better against 3D nanoprinting.
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Re: Will the gold market survive the atomic-scale personal manufacturing future?

Post by Tyler »

It's already possible to create gold at an atomic level in a lab.  From Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synthesis_ ... ous_metals):
Gold synthesis in a nuclear reactor
Gold was synthesized from mercury by neutron bombardment in 1941, but the isotopes of gold produced were all radioactive.[12] In 1924, a Japanese physicist, Hantaro Nagaoka, accomplished the same feat.[13]

Gold can currently be manufactured in a nuclear reactor by irradiation either of platinum or mercury.

Only the mercury isotope 196Hg, which occurs with a frequency of 0.15% in natural mercury, can be converted to gold by slow neutron capture, and following electron capture, decay into gold's only stable isotope, 197Au. When other mercury isotopes are irradiated with slow neutrons, they also undergo neutron capture, but either convert into each other or beta decay into the thallium isotopes 203Tl and 205Tl.

Using fast neutrons, the mercury isotope 198Hg, which composes 9.97% of natural mercury, can be converted by splitting off a neutron and becoming 197Hg, which then disintegrates to stable gold. This reaction, however, possesses a smaller activation cross-section and is feasible only with un-moderated reactors.

It is also possible to eject several neutrons with very high energy into the other mercury isotopes in order to form 197Hg. However such high-energy neutrons can be produced only by particle accelerators.

In 1980, Glenn Seaborg transmuted several thousand atoms of bismuth into gold at the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory. His experimental technique, using nuclear physics, was able to remove protons and neutrons from the bismuth atoms. Seaborg's technique would have been far too expensive to enable the routine manufacture of gold, however.[14][15]


The problem is the energy required.  In the last Seaborg experiment, it cost $10,000 to create one billionth of a cent in gold.  Not exactly a profitable enterprise.

Manipulating molecules is just chemistry.  Creating new atoms requires tremendous amounts of energy, and that will be cost-prohibitive until (and perhaps far beyond) something like cheap fusion technology is widespread.  At that point, the economy will be so much different than it is today that I'm not sure we'll be thinking much about the price of gold.  I predict we'll be mining asteroids for gold and other elements far before we get around to producing them ourselves.
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Re: Will the gold market survive the atomic-scale personal manufacturing future?

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MachineGhost wrote: Here's a true 3D printer...

http://www.fastcoexist.com/3043783/a-ne ... odays-tech

As an aside, IMO this all illustrates the sheer stupidity of buying bland boring common buillion gold.  Buy coins that have artistic merit or collectible merit.  It'll protect you better against 3D nanoprinting.
You've lost me. Why would 3D nanoprinting affect the value of a bullion gold coin?
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Re: Will the gold market survive the atomic-scale personal manufacturing future?

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Libertarian666 wrote: You've lost me. Why would 3D nanoprinting affect the value of a bullion gold coin?
No intrinsic value beyond the gold atoms?  Unlike natural diamonds which have flaws to tell them apart from synthetic, how are you going to tell a bar of nanosynthetic gold bullion apart from the genuine article?  With gold coins -- especially [semi]numismatic -- there's intrinsic value beyond just the gold atoms.
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Re: Will the gold market survive the atomic-scale personal manufacturing future?

Post by l82start »

with the exception of coins that were slabbed before the invention of nanoprinting how will you tell a coin (printed atom by atom) from a minted one? i would think the printer would be able to create/ build-in every detail left by the minting process in atomically accurate detail? possibly including effects of aging and wear.
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Re: Will the gold market survive the atomic-scale personal manufacturing future?

Post by Libertarian666 »

MachineGhost wrote:
Libertarian666 wrote: You've lost me. Why would 3D nanoprinting affect the value of a bullion gold coin?
No intrinsic value beyond the gold atoms?  Unlike natural diamonds which have flaws to tell them apart from synthetic, how are you going to tell a bar of nanosynthetic gold bullion apart from the genuine article?  With gold coins -- especially [semi]numismatic -- there's intrinsic value beyond just the gold atoms.
There isn't any such thing as nanosynthetic gold bullion. Other than that, I see your point. :P
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