Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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AdamA
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Re: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth

Post by AdamA » Wed Nov 26, 2014 1:17 pm

barrett wrote:
Craig, Have you written about this in depth anywhere? I've seen you post about it a couple of times here and also listened to an excellent PP interview you did a few years ago where you said something like "I'm happy to just sit back and take your money." I mean, I kinda understand the idea but would like to really grasp it completely. Thanks.
Here's a good post from his blog.  Don't underestimate his point about the emotional component of market timing strategies.

https://web.archive.org/web/20160324133 ... e-problem/
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Re: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth

Post by Reub » Wed Nov 26, 2014 9:51 pm

Speaking of manipulation, did you see this today?:

"Goldman, BASF, HSBC accused of metals price fixing: U.S. lawsuit

Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N), Germany's BASF SE (BASFn.DE) and two other big platinum and palladium dealers have been sued in the United States in what the plaintiff's law firm called the first nationwide class action over alleged price-fixing of the metals."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/ ... T120141126
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Re: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth

Post by craigr » Thu Nov 27, 2014 10:03 am

MachineGhost wrote:
barrett wrote: Craig, Have you written about this in depth anywhere? I've seen you post about it a couple of times here and also listened to an excellent PP interview you did a few years ago where you said something like "I'm happy to just sit back and take your money." I mean, I kinda understand the idea but would like to really grasp it completely. Thanks.
What he means is let the cognitivally-biased fools battle it out and he'll collect the fallout from acting rational (i.e. dollar cost averaging and rebalancing low, selling high).  The point is to come out ahead in this game long-term, you must not engage in any emotionally-based detrimental behavior since you're liable to be part of the emotional herd and they're always wrong at turning points.  Turning points and sentiment shifts are fractal so they extend across all time spans. 
Yep this is pretty much it. A rigid plan that keeps emotions out of the equation just works better long term.
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Re: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth

Post by MachineGhost » Thu Nov 27, 2014 10:56 am

craigr wrote: Yep this is pretty much it. A rigid plan that keeps emotions out of the equation just works better long term.
I do believe that is the only real edge in the market.  All the "anomalies" are ultimately behaviorally based.
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