Government Shutdown equals Gold Decline?

[buddtholomew]

Can someone explain this relationship? Can the PP succeed when gold is being so heavily manipulated?

[AdamA]

Can someone explain this relationship? Can the PP succeed when gold is being so manipulated?

How is gold being manipulated?

[Kshartle]

Maybe people actually believe the government will cut it's borrowing and spending. This should be very bullish for the dollar long-term.

[buddtholomew]

Can someone explain this relationship? Can the PP succeed when gold is being so manipulated?

How is gold being manipulated?

How is gold down 2.5% when the government of the worlds reserve currency is shutdown?

[Pointedstick]

How is gold down 2.5% when the government of the worlds reserve currency is shutdown?

Perhaps the market realizes something you don't and doesn't believe the shutdown is a big deal.

Beyond that, I would again caution trying to interpret daily price movements in terms of current events. You'll just drive yourself mad.

[buddtholomew]

You are right! Everything is fantastic, let's dump our gold and treasuries to buy equities now that the government is shutdown. Boy am I dumb, should have seen that from a mile away.

[AdamA]

You are right! Everything is fantastic, let's dump our gold and treasuries to buy equities now that the government is shutdown. Boy am I dumb, should have seen that from a mile away.

Or you could just hold a balanced portfolio of equities, bonds, cash and gold. 

[buddtholomew]

We can also resort to comedy to avoid facing reality. Thats an option.

[dualstow]

This is a new Budd I'm seeing. Normally, you're cool as a cucumber.

[AdamA]

We can also resort to comedy to avoid facing reality. Thats an option.

Seriously, Bud, this is exactly the type of situation that the PP is designed for. 

Stop watching the news for a month or two.  Don't check your portfolio for the rest of the year.  Just let some time pass and stop worrying so much about your investments.  I think you'll be pleasantly surprised to see that the PP works as advertised.

[Pointedstick]

We can also resort to comedy to avoid facing reality. Thats an option.

I guess I don't understand what the problem is.  Were you expecting gold to skyrocket? If so, why? Does it actually matter that it hasn't? I mean, what's the big deal here?

[buddtholomew]

You guys are rifht  Just checked my DGLD investment, up 9% this morning.

[buddtholomew]

We can also resort to comedy to avoid facing reality. Thats an option.

What reality am I not facing?

What should I be doing in view of the reality that you think I'm not facing?

BTW, here is reality for me:

1. I don't know what is going to happen in the future.
2. The best I can do is hedge my bets.
3. Everything else is noise.

What, no more funnies now? All I did was ask a question about the relationship between gold and the government shutdown. No one said for PP investors to change their approach. That is what you inferred from my comment. What I said was, how does the market react to a government shutdown by selling gold and treasuries and buying equities.

[Pointedstick]

What I said was, how does the market react to a government shutdown by selling gold and treasuries and buying equities.

Well my interpretation is that markets don't seem to think this is the end of the world and don't expect the economy to be affected much. But that's just my guess. Nobody really knows.

What's happening in the markets today does not appear to be what you expected, and it's obviously upsetting you. Being blindsided by gold's decline today means that you expected it to rise, which means that you were trying to predict the price movements of the asset. I would really, really encourage you to try to let go of the idea that you can predict what the markets are going to do tomorrow in response to current events. Otherwise it's going to drive you insane. It's just not worth it.

[buddtholomew]

What I said was, how does the market react to a government shutdown by selling gold and treasuries and buying equities.

Well my interpretation is that markets don't seem to think this is the end of the world and don't expect the economy to be affected much. But that's just my guess. Nobody really knows.

What's happening in the markets today does not appear to be what you expected, and it's obviously upsetting you. Being blindsided by gold's decline today means that you expected it to rise, which means that you were trying to predict the price movements of the asset. I would really, really encourage you to try to let go of the idea that you can predict what the markets are going to do tomorrow in response to current events. Otherwise it's going to drive you insane. It's just not worth it.

Stop trying to psychoanalyze my thoughts. I had no previous conceptions about the price movement of one of the assets held in the PP and the outcome of the government shutdown. I have held DGLD in my VP ever since GS took a position in GLD. The question presented in the OP still remains.

[dualstow]

What, no more funnies now? All I did was ask a question about the relationship between gold and the government shutdown. No one said for PP investors to change their approach. That is what you inferred from my comment. What I said was, how does the market react to a government shutdown by selling gold and treasuries and buying equities.

But you did ask "how is the pp going to succeed if gold is being so heavily manipulated" which suggests that
A) gold is being manipulated and
B) the pp may fail, so perhaps a change in approach is in order.

Anyway, I think what you can distill from the responses is
i) don't worry about the day-to-day reactions of the market. It doesn't always work that way (a "logical" reaction within 24 hours of an event).
ii) don't worry, period. Relax.

[buddtholomew]

These were questions not comments, but I do believe that gold is manipulated. Perhaps I am the only one and something unforseen is driving the price lower.

[Pointedstick]

These were questions not comments, but I do believe that gold is manipulated. Perhaps I am the only one and something unforseen is driving the price lower.

Aren't all the assets manipulated? I mean, we're talking about investing in a mixed economy with multinational corporations, heavy government regulation, and a central bank.

I apologize for trying to guess your state of mind. But my point remains, and I just don't think there's a good reason to be so distraught by gold's downward price movement today. You can't let day-to-day price movements drive you nuts.

[AdamA]

The question presented in the OP still remains.

I would say that there is no relationship between the price of gold and a government shutdown (at least this version of a government shutdown).

Why would you expect there to be?

[buddtholomew]

I am not distraught by any means, since my gold position is adequately hedged. Again, I challenge you to identify in this thread, where I am "freaked out." Thats good advice, but not applicable here.

[Pointedstick]

I am not distraught by any means, since my gold position is adequately hedged. Again, I challenge you to identify in this thread, where I am "freaked out." Thats good advice, but not applicable here.

Okay:

You are right! Everything is fantastic, let's dump our gold and treasuries to buy equities now that the government is shutdown. Boy am I dumb, should have seen that from a mile away.

We can also resort to comedy to avoid facing reality. Thats an option.

I interpreted those statements, in conjunction with the thread title and the worry about gold being "manipulated" as evidence of your being distraught. If I have misinterpreted your feelings, I apologize.

[l82start]

Stop trying to psychoanalyze my thoughts. I had no previous conceptions about the price movement of one of the assets held in the PP and the outcome of the government shutdown. I have held DGLD in my VP ever since GS took a position in GLD. The question presented in the OP still remains.

i think that, based on your early wavering and concerns with daily movements, the PP forum has grown accustom to judging the emotional effects of the markets based on our very own buddtholometer 

[buddtholomew]

PS, no apology required. My reputation precedes me and I understand why I receive certain responses given my posting history. I ask the forum to give me the benefit of the doubt as investors can change their spots over time.

[dragoncar]

We can also resort to comedy to avoid facing reality. Thats an option.

Seriously, Bud, this is exactly the type of situation that the PP is designed for. 

Stop watching the news for a month or two.  Don't check your portfolio for the rest of the year.  Just let some time pass and stop worrying so much about your investments.  I think you'll be pleasantly surprised to see that the PP works as advertised.

I feel like you guys have been saying this to budd for almost a year now.  Unfortunately, the PP has not "performed as advertised" unless it was advertised to experience a steady decline.

[Mdraf]

We can also resort to comedy to avoid facing reality. Thats an option.

Seriously, Bud, this is exactly the type of situation that the PP is designed for. 

Stop watching the news for a month or two.  Don't check your portfolio for the rest of the year.  Just let some time pass and stop worrying so much about your investments.  I think you'll be pleasantly surprised to see that the PP works as advertised.

I feel like you guys have been saying this to budd for almost a year now.  Unfortunately, the PP has not "performed as advertised" unless it was advertised to experience a steady decline.

+1