The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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mathjak107
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Nov 23, 2021 1:25 pm

murphy_p_t wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 10:07 am
Mathjack, 5% commodities... How do you get that exposure?
etf dbc
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Nov 23, 2021 1:31 pm

vincent_c wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 11:36 am
mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 8:39 am
i hold 5% in gold , 5% bitcoin , 5% commodities and 5% cash flying fighter cover as opposed to the big position in gold . i dont feel gold alone is diversified enough anymore with all the alternatives.
holy shit MJ has more hodl BTC than I do.
i do hold a lot dollar wise but as a piece of the total it is 5% .

my little hedge portion of gld-dbc-gbtc and fdlxx ride shotgun for all investable assets .so 20% in total .

actually it isnt a mix i though of , it is paul tudor jones
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by modeljc » Tue Nov 23, 2021 2:15 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 1:31 pm
vincent_c wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 11:36 am
mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 8:39 am
i hold 5% in gold , 5% bitcoin , 5% commodities and 5% cash flying fighter cover as opposed to the big position in gold . i dont feel gold alone is diversified enough anymore with all the alternatives.
holy shit MJ has more hodl BTC than I do.
i do hold a lot dollar wise but as a piece of the total it is 5% .

my little hedge portion of gld-dbc-gbtc and fdlxx ride shotgun for all investable assets .so 20% in total .

actually it isnt a mix i though of , it is paul tudor jones
do you rebalance each year or what?
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Nov 23, 2021 2:24 pm

modeljc wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 2:15 pm
mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 1:31 pm
vincent_c wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 11:36 am
mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 8:39 am
i hold 5% in gold , 5% bitcoin , 5% commodities and 5% cash flying fighter cover as opposed to the big position in gold . i dont feel gold alone is diversified enough anymore with all the alternatives.
holy shit MJ has more hodl BTC than I do.
i do hold a lot dollar wise but as a piece of the total it is 5% .

my little hedge portion of gld-dbc-gbtc and fdlxx ride shotgun for all investable assets .so 20% in total .

actually it isnt a mix i though of , it is paul tudor jones
do you rebalance each year or what?
yes i will rebalance … likely each year since volatility is crazy

looking at today gold is down almost 1% , commodities up almost 2% and gbtc bitcoin up 3.50%
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by modeljc » Tue Nov 23, 2021 2:52 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 2:24 pm
modeljc wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 2:15 pm
mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 1:31 pm
vincent_c wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 11:36 am
mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 8:39 am
i hold 5% in gold , 5% bitcoin , 5% commodities and 5% cash flying fighter cover as opposed to the big position in gold . i dont feel gold alone is diversified enough anymore with all the alternatives.
holy shit MJ has more hodl BTC than I do.
i do hold a lot dollar wise but as a piece of the total it is 5% .

my little hedge portion of gld-dbc-gbtc and fdlxx ride shotgun for all investable assets .so 20% in total .

actually it isnt a mix i though of , it is paul tudor jones
do you rebalance each year or what?
yes i will rebalance … likely each year since volatility is crazy

looking at today gold is down almost 1% , commodities up almost 2% and gbtc bitcoin up 3.50%
Portfolio Visualizer has a 5 year annual return of +50% with a rebalance each year. Does the 20% discount bother you on GBTC. Do you
think it will close or get deeper with the new ETF's coming. I do think the 2% or so expense ratio will for sure need to be reduced.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Nov 23, 2021 2:54 pm

as far as gbtc i couldn't care less ..i have good gains from it and it works fine with no wallet issues . until a better etf comes along it works well
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Nov 24, 2021 8:10 am

More pain, yay PP...not!
Worst portfolio EVER, none worse.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Nov 24, 2021 8:43 am

buddtholomew wrote:
Wed Nov 24, 2021 8:10 am
More pain, yay PP...not!
Worst portfolio EVER, none worse.
Black Friday Sale!
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by modeljc » Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:08 am

buddtholomew wrote:
Wed Nov 24, 2021 8:10 am
More pain, yay PP...not!
Worst portfolio EVER, none worse.
Gold will give up 5% on just talk of being hawkish. Think of an actual rate increase of a 1/16 of a point. Revist the 1980's if you doubt.

I got 25%, but the world does not believe in Gold as a hedge for anything!
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Kbg » Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:32 am

modeljc wrote:
Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:08 am
I got 25%, but the world does not believe in Gold as a hedge for anything!
That's because factually it isn't. The best we can say is it is non-correlated with anything which is not a bad characteristic for a portfolio asset.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by modeljc » Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:44 am

Kbg wrote:
Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:32 am
modeljc wrote:
Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:08 am
I got 25%, but the world does not believe in Gold as a hedge for anything!
That's because factually it isn't. The best we can say is it is non-correlated with anything which is not a bad characteristic for a portfolio asset.
Hard to take it to the bank in 1980 when it hit $850. Nice for a few months but only pain for the next 40 years vs other assets.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ppbob » Wed Nov 24, 2021 11:09 am

modeljc wrote:
Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:44 am


Hard to take it to the bank in 1980 when it hit $850. Nice for a few months but only pain for the next 40 years vs other assets.
We have been in a bond bull market over that period as rates dropped from 15% down to essentially zero.

https://www.macrotrends.net/2016/10-ye ... eld-chart

As the saying goes, trends will remain until they stop.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Kbg » Wed Nov 24, 2021 12:38 pm

modeljc wrote:
Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:44 am
Kbg wrote:
Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:32 am
modeljc wrote:
Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:08 am
I got 25%, but the world does not believe in Gold as a hedge for anything!
That's because factually it isn't. The best we can say is it is non-correlated with anything which is not a bad characteristic for a portfolio asset.
Hard to take it to the bank in 1980 when it hit $850. Nice for a few months but only pain for the next 40 years vs other assets.
No, it did a really nice job/had a good run 2002-2012.

Finally, from 1/1/20 until now, gold beats every major US stock measurement (sharpe, CAGR, Max DD). That's a long time and at least 50% of the average investor's investing life span. However, if you split the time period in half the story is 180 between each period.

As mentioned, nice wind in the sails or an anchor.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Nov 24, 2021 6:27 pm

Sold down to 5% today.
I won’t bitch about it anymore now.
Liberating!
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Dieter » Wed Nov 24, 2021 7:04 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Wed Nov 24, 2021 6:27 pm
Sold down to 5% today.
I won’t bitch about it anymore now.
Liberating!
Even if a gold bull market begins today? :)

But, good that you've got your allocation to something that makes you comfortable.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Mark Leavy » Wed Nov 24, 2021 7:22 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Wed Nov 24, 2021 6:27 pm
I won’t bitch about it anymore now.
You're such a liar :) Hilarious.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Nov 24, 2021 8:53 pm

Dieter wrote:
Wed Nov 24, 2021 7:04 pm
buddtholomew wrote:
Wed Nov 24, 2021 6:27 pm
Sold down to 5% today.
I won’t bitch about it anymore now.
Liberating!
Even if a gold bull market begins today? :)

But, good that you've got your allocation to something that makes you comfortable.
I have already doubled my $ in Gold and it’s time ring the register. I’m OK with any gains from here as I still hold 5%. Godspeed.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Nov 25, 2021 3:38 am

i find the diversity of gold , bitcoin and a commodities etf a far better fit than 100% gold today..staying 100% gold today reminds me of those who fight the last war …..

i would think if harry could have seen in to the future the portfolio would have evolved over time.

the reality is nothing in life is permanent
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dockinGA » Fri Nov 26, 2021 7:35 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Nov 25, 2021 3:38 am
i find the diversity of gold , bitcoin and a commodities etf a far better fit than 100% gold today..staying 100% gold today reminds me of those who fight the last war …..

i would think if harry could have seen in to the future the portfolio would have evolved over time.

the reality is nothing in life is permanent
People who constantly tout investing newsletters and the past success thereof also remind me of those who fight the last war......
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Don » Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:52 am

Gold has nothing in common with bitcoin.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Nov 26, 2021 11:44 am

dockinGA wrote:
Fri Nov 26, 2021 7:35 am
mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Nov 25, 2021 3:38 am
i find the diversity of gold , bitcoin and a commodities etf a far better fit than 100% gold today..staying 100% gold today reminds me of those who fight the last war …..

i would think if harry could have seen in to the future the portfolio would have evolved over time.

the reality is nothing in life is permanent
People who constantly tout investing newsletters and the past success thereof also remind me of those who fight the last war......
you would be wrong as many change with the times to better bit ..there is no such thing as one type of newsletter.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Nov 26, 2021 11:46 am

Don wrote:
Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:52 am
Gold has nothing in common with bitcoin.
not likely the case ..a stumbling dollar will likely see bitcoin respond just like gold would..
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Nov 26, 2021 12:03 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Fri Nov 26, 2021 11:46 am
Don wrote:
Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:52 am
Gold has nothing in common with bitcoin.
not likely the case ..a stumbling dollar will likely see bitcoin respond just like gold would..
Neither responded today.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by vincent_c » Fri Nov 26, 2021 12:18 pm

Right now BTC is trading above its fair value and the speculative premium (still) outweighs its fundamental risk characteristics but if you had a way to adjust for the speculation then I suspect it does react appropriately. There's just no way to separately it out cleanly and in a way that is objective.

The trick is to have your own model for when BTC is over or undervalued, and then only buy it as a gold replacement when it is undervalued. There's no perfect solution and one's own model is probably not right and there is going to be an aspect of market timing whenever one introduces a new asset into a portfolio.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Nov 26, 2021 2:01 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Nov 26, 2021 12:03 pm
mathjak107 wrote:
Fri Nov 26, 2021 11:46 am
Don wrote:
Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:52 am
Gold has nothing in common with bitcoin.
not likely the case ..a stumbling dollar will likely see bitcoin respond just like gold would..
Neither responded today.
no risk assets did well today .. commodities got hit too
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