Re: The GOLD scream room
Posted: Tue Nov 30, 2021 9:28 am
very little trading in tlt this year ..i did some-in gold but when the trend is down more than up it is hard to do. i am still down in gold from the pp
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Agree 100%mathjak107 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 30, 2021 5:49 pm it wouldnt be so bad except gold cant seem to get any traction …other assets like commodities or bitcoin can make 6% up in an afternoon ….but gold just cant get to first base in this environment which is why i dont want gold as my only hedge going forward.
i want it combined with other inflation oriented assets
Fundamentally gold should increase in price by about 7.5% per year over the very long term plus a little extra boost from the fact that it would need to increase in price by 30% currently just to revert back to historic valuations. Fundamentally stocks need to fall by about 50% to revert back to historic norms; however, with currency being printed at a rate of 7.5% per year stocks could merely remain stagnant to revert back to normal (a lost decade similar to the 2000’s). A stock investor could take solace in the fact that he or she would be collecting a 1.25% dividend during the wait. It’s not much, but hey it’s better than banks are paying! In my view a long term investor will be more handsomely rewarded in gold over the next 10-20 years than in the S&P500.
Sorry this is meaningless to me, just like gold 5000 or 10000. Just not going to happen.flyingpylon wrote: ↑Mon Dec 13, 2021 10:18 am Here's a different perspective from Paul Belanger:
2021-12-11 Current Gold and Equity Valuation
Fundamentally gold should increase in price by about 7.5% per year over the very long term plus a little extra boost from the fact that it would need to increase in price by 30% currently just to revert back to historic valuations. Fundamentally stocks need to fall by about 50% to revert back to historic norms; however, with currency being printed at a rate of 7.5% per year stocks could merely remain stagnant to revert back to normal (a lost decade similar to the 2000’s). A stock investor could take solace in the fact that he or she would be collecting a 1.25% dividend during the wait. It’s not much, but hey it’s better than banks are paying! In my view a long term investor will be more handsomely rewarded in gold over the next 10-20 years than in the S&P500.
But why? Gold isn’t doing anything for you.Cortopassi wrote: ↑Tue Dec 14, 2021 8:07 am All going to plan!
Selling stocks in Jan to fund more gold and silver buying!
Maybe it's insane, which is exactly what I should be doing. I think I've said in the past if at every opportunity I did the opposite of what my gut what telling me I'd be retired.
But it is. Peace of mind. I don't have to have the top % return in investing.
Your peace of mind is a false sense of security and built on quicksand. There is nothing special at all about the PP and it has proven once more this year that Gold is a useless diversifier. Anything tied to inflation (eg DBC) is beating the pants off the metal. Nobody cares about gold anymore and it shows.Cortopassi wrote: ↑Tue Dec 14, 2021 8:27 amBut it is. Peace of mind. I don't have to have the top % return in investing.
Amenmathjak107 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 14, 2021 8:48 am Some things will come down as supply’s get better .
One third of the cpi is the price of new and used cars which will fall .
Labor Increases will stay but you can bet that raises going forward will be smaller for those who have had substantial increases already , so over time that will settle down .
Needless to say I don’t keep just gold as my inflation hedge ….I have cut that way down and use gbtc and dbc as well.
To many easy ways to get coverage with all these specialized etfs ..golds day has likely come and gone in that respect …it’s not out totally but it shouldn’t be the only hedge against the dollar and inflation
I'm not Cortopassi but he's posted on here numerous times that he's had much better returns with broad, PP-inspired asset allocation than he ever did before when trying to figure out what the next hot thing was going to be. Peace of mind is super important. I would argue that it's far better to have peace of mind and lower returns than to be wringing one's hands all the time and trying to optimize returns all the time.buddtholomew wrote: ↑Tue Dec 14, 2021 8:34 amYour peace of mind is a false sense of security and built on quicksand. There is nothing special at all about the PP and it has proven once more this year that Gold is a useless diversifier. Anything tied to inflation (eg DBC) is beating the pants off the metal. Nobody cares about gold anymore and it shows.Cortopassi wrote: ↑Tue Dec 14, 2021 8:27 amBut it is. Peace of mind. I don't have to have the top % return in investing.
Correct; I too wanted peace of mind with the PP but it has not delivered at all. Maybe once or twice out of 10 years have I actually seen it offset stock losses to any degree. That’s not peace of mind in my books.barrett wrote: ↑Tue Dec 14, 2021 9:33 amI'm not Cortopassi but he's posted on here numerous times that he's had much better returns with broad, PP-inspired asset allocation than he ever did before when trying to figure out what the next hot thing was going to be. Peace of mind is super important. I would argue that it's far better to have peace of mind and lower returns than to be wringing one's hands all the time and trying to optimize returns all the time.buddtholomew wrote: ↑Tue Dec 14, 2021 8:34 amYour peace of mind is a false sense of security and built on quicksand. There is nothing special at all about the PP and it has proven once more this year that Gold is a useless diversifier. Anything tied to inflation (eg DBC) is beating the pants off the metal. Nobody cares about gold anymore and it shows.Cortopassi wrote: ↑Tue Dec 14, 2021 8:27 amBut it is. Peace of mind. I don't have to have the top % return in investing.
But everyone is different. That's something that Tyler comes back to time and again in his writings.
Gold has had ample opportunity to do anything besides go down over the last year. We hold it according to HB or Tex or Craig or any of the other so called gurus for times of “unexpected” inflation. We have been talking about inflation for over a year now and all readings have been grossly larger than expectations. Gold still can’t respond and is also 15% lower than it’s all time high.