Gyroscopic Investing

dualstow wrote: ↑Thu Sep 09, 2021 1:34 pm
p.s. looks like Vinny retweeted it.

Of course! After you had above alerted me to its existence...

What a useless asset.
I’ve held for 10-12 years and doubled my money.
Selling today.

buddtholomew wrote: ↑Fri Sep 10, 2021 12:56 pm What a useless asset.
I’ve held for 10-12 years and doubled my money.
Selling today.

A CAGR of 6-7%? That doesn’t sound so bad.
I think that’s what I got from PepsiCo.

dualstow wrote: ↑Fri Sep 10, 2021 1:01 pm

buddtholomew wrote: ↑Fri Sep 10, 2021 12:56 pm What a useless asset.
I’ve held for 10-12 years and doubled my money.
Selling today.

A CAGR of 6-7%? That doesn’t sound so bad.

The problem is the opportunity cost.
Over that time I would have quadrupled my money.

There's an asset class out there with a guaranteed CAGR of 12-15% over any 10-12 year period? Nice! What is it?

It’s called stocks.
Anyway, this portfolio is dogshit, always has been and always will be.

vincent_c wrote: ↑Fri Sep 10, 2021 3:06 pm

buddtholomew wrote: ↑Fri Sep 10, 2021 2:58 pm It’s called stocks.
Anyway, this portfolio is dogshit, always has been and always will be.

Yeah, one of the best risk adjusted returns is dogshit. You're just not using the right amount of leverage so I'll agree with you that the portfolio is bad since the standard construction is 4x25% without leverage.

Yes 4x25 is meaningless and so leveraging meaningless still leaves you with nothing.
Risk adjusted is fine but leaving 2M on the table for risk adjusted underperformance is this portfolios MO.
What a waste of time, energy and money.
No wonder only a handful of people adhere to this nonsense.

Tortoise wrote: ↑Fri Sep 10, 2021 1:41 pm There's an asset class out there with a guaranteed CAGR of 12-15% over any 10-12 year period? Nice! What is it?

buddtholomew wrote: ↑Fri Sep 10, 2021 2:58 pm It’s called stocks.
Anyway, this portfolio is dogshit, always has been and always will be.

You might want to double-check your math, Bud:

During the best 10-year period (1949-1958), the S&P 500 delivered 17.9% annual returns.

During the worst 10-year period (1999-2008), the S&P 500 delivered -3.8% annual returns.

The median annual returns for 10-year periods since 1928 has been 6.5%.

The S&P 500 delivered negative annualized returns in 11 out of 81 10-year periods (13.6% of 10-year periods) since 1928.

https://fourpillarfreedom.com/heres-how ... ince-1928/

Tortoise wrote: ↑Fri Sep 10, 2021 3:36 pm

Tortoise wrote: ↑Fri Sep 10, 2021 1:41 pm There's an asset class out there with a guaranteed CAGR of 12-15% over any 10-12 year period? Nice! What is it?

buddtholomew wrote: ↑Fri Sep 10, 2021 2:58 pm It’s called stocks.
Anyway, this portfolio is dogshit, always has been and always will be.

You might want to double-check your math, Bud:

During the best 10-year period (1949-1958), the S&P 500 delivered 17.9% annual returns.

During the worst 10-year period (1999-2008), the S&P 500 delivered -3.8% annual returns.

The median annual returns for 10-year periods since 1928 has been 6.5%.

The S&P 500 delivered negative annualized returns in 11 out of 81 10-year periods (13.6% of 10-year periods) since 1928.

https://fourpillarfreedom.com/heres-how ... ince-1928/

I missed you saying “any”.
Check your math last few years to see how pathetic PP has performed over a 60/40.

buddtholomew wrote: ↑Fri Sep 10, 2021 3:53 pm I missed you saying “any”.
Check your math last few years to see how pathetic PP has performed over a 60/40.

Backtest on ETF Replay shows the following performance over the past 3 years:

60/40 (VTI/BND): 46% total return (13.4% CAGR), 13.8% volatility, -22% max drawdown
4x25 PP (VTI/TLT/IAU/SHV): 37.7% total return (11.3% CAGR), 7.6% volatility, -11.4% max drawdown

So over that period, the PP achieved ~82% of the total return of the 60/40 with half the volatility and half the max drawdown. Somewhat lower return, yes, but dogshit?

Looks like the standard PP tradeoff to me: You exchange some return for lower volatility and lower max drawdown.

The problem is it’s always lower with less compounding.
Difficult for me to eat a sharpe ratio.

I agree that you can't eat the PP's Sharpe ratio, but it does allow me to eat my food without puking due to stomach-churning drawdowns.

Tortoise wrote: ↑Fri Sep 10, 2021 4:31 pm I agree that you can't eat the PP's Sharpe ratio, but it does allow me to eat my food without puking due to stomach-churning drawdowns.

Yeah...but damn it never shines anymore.

I'm pretty sure gold has beaten stocks for the last 25 years, and that's at the end of I think literally the biggest bull market in US stock market history.

It might not be the end, but its long long into it. Think about that....the biggest bull market in history and gold has outperformed it for 25 years......maybe more.

I'm pretty sure gold has beaten stocks for the last 25 years, and that's at the end of I think literally the biggest bull market in US stock market history.

It might not be the end, but its long long into it. Think about that....the biggest bull market in history and gold has outperformed it for 25 years......maybe more.

I could have a great sharpe ratio if I buy SPY and short it at the same time. That’s how I feel the PP has responded over last few years - one of more cancel out the other.

For sure, I despise gold.

Tortoise wrote: ↑Fri Sep 10, 2021 4:31 pm I agree that you can't eat the PP's Sharpe ratio, but it does allow me to eat my food without puking due to stomach-churning drawdowns.

What these forums need is a "Like" button...

buddtholomew wrote: ↑Fri Sep 10, 2021 5:05 pm For sure, I despise gold.

Nobody's gonna throw anything at you if you own less gold. It's funny to me that you hate gold so much, but you have a larger-than-orthodox allocation to cash. I'd think if you hated any asset for doing nothing for 10 years, much less NOT DOUBLING, it would be cash. But if I could try to guess what you'd say, you'd say, "but I don't expect cash to double in 10 years." That's pretty much how I feel about the PP. I don't expect it to have a higher gear, it just trucks along without much drama.

Bud will sell his gold, disappear, then reappear on the forums the next time a Great Recession or March 2020 scenario shows back up. After he buys back into the PP after stocks have hit rock bottom.

I would never buy the PP if stocks hit rock bottom. That would be asinine. I’ll use cash instead of Gold for rebalancing since the former you can depend on and the latter you cannot.

vincent_c wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 12:23 am

dockinGA wrote: ↑Fri Sep 10, 2021 7:42 pm Bud will sell his gold, disappear, then reappear on the forums the next time a Great Recession or March 2020 scenario shows back up. After he buys back into the PP after stocks have hit rock bottom.

I still remember when I was still just a lurker that I would tune in every time gold dropped and I would try to find budd’s post. Quite entertaining because at the time the PP as a whole was going up and I didn’t understand the pain this guy was feeling. Amazingly, as soon as he said he sold his gold, I believe that marked the exact bottom for gold.

Kind of like how someone else disappeared when they sold their LTT marking the bottom.

You’re way off, still have my Gold and retired very well off after the 2020 decline at 47 I might add.
I sold LTT’s in the 160’s and bought ITT’s when LTT was at 140.

Let me repeat for the slow learners, I have DOUBLED my gold position yet still think it is worthless. Up .23% one day and down 1.99% the next day “just because”. Fuck that.

Also, for those that praise the PP:
Gold down 8.31% YTD
TLT down 5.35 YTD
what a joke....

vincent_c wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 7:40 am I’m sure I’m not the only one who remembers this. It could be someone else with a similar name because that guy did say he left the forum.

There are a lot of people who have left the forum for good multiple times and are still here.

I remember poor Catacombs (Israeli) was briefly on the forum, panicked, got rid of his gold at the bottom. Never came back, at least not with that username.

dualstow wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 7:17 pm I remember poor Catacombs (Israeli) was briefly on the forum, panicked, got rid of his gold at the bottom. Never came back, at least not with that username.

That's exactly what a portfolio like the PP will protect us from... an uncertain future. He should have rebalanced INTO gold. Poor guy.