The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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buddtholomew
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Mon Jul 27, 2020 9:49 am

vnatale wrote:
Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:45 pm
buddtholomew wrote:
Sun Jul 26, 2020 8:04 pm
Don wrote:
Sun Jul 26, 2020 5:36 pm
buddtholomew wrote:
Sun Jul 26, 2020 8:26 am
I Shrugged wrote:
Sat Jul 25, 2020 6:25 pm
Is Budd's joy a contrarian indicator?
:)
It’s more relief than joy.
Hope that helps you decide haha
Budd, is that you?
Yes it is I, the one and only Buddtholomew. At least the username is always available when I create a new account.
By the count of your posts it seems like you are merely re-activating the same one you've had?

Vinny
Correct Vinny.
My response was tongue in cheek as I use the username “buddtholomew” for other forums and accounts as well and it has always been available for use (so I am the one and only buddtholomew).

I did request a ban from this board and also Xan was gracious enough to re-enable the account at my request.
Don
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Don » Mon Jul 27, 2020 9:54 am

dualstow wrote:
Mon Jul 27, 2020 6:09 am
I think there’s some metaphysical phenomenon that if we hit 2000, Craig and Medium Tex will briefly remanifest.
You might need an alchemist for that.
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buddtholomew
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Mon Jul 27, 2020 10:18 am

Ad Orientem wrote:
Mon Jul 27, 2020 12:06 am
Hi Budd. Nice to see you back.
Thank you!!
pmward
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Mon Jul 27, 2020 12:18 pm

Well how about that? New gold all-time highs.I wasn't planning to log back in here until after the election was over and the political debates died down. Alas, I felt like there is no better place to celebrate the new all-time highs than here. Can we actually clear that psychological 2k level???
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Ad Orientem
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ad Orientem » Mon Jul 27, 2020 3:12 pm

pmward wrote:
Mon Jul 27, 2020 12:18 pm
Well how about that? New gold all-time highs.I wasn't planning to log back in here until after the election was over and the political debates died down. Alas, I felt like there is no better place to celebrate the new all-time highs than here. Can we actually clear that psychological 2k level???

Pure speculation here... but in the near term I expect gold to continue to move up before pausing for consolidation around the $2k mark. In the intermediate term I I am bullish on gold and expect it to continue to outperform as long as the government is running insane deficits, suppressing interest rates in the bond market, printing money like water and using much of that newly printed money to buy its own bonds. In the near term silver will likely outperform gold due to the still wide, but narrowing, gap in the silver gold price ratio as well as declining production coupled with increased industrial demand. Long term, silver prices will overshoot (it's one of the constants of history) and then correct downward.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Mon Jul 27, 2020 3:30 pm

Ad Orientem wrote:
Mon Jul 27, 2020 3:12 pm
pmward wrote:
Mon Jul 27, 2020 12:18 pm
Well how about that? New gold all-time highs.I wasn't planning to log back in here until after the election was over and the political debates died down. Alas, I felt like there is no better place to celebrate the new all-time highs than here. Can we actually clear that psychological 2k level???

Pure speculation here... but in the near term I expect gold to continue to move up before pausing for consolidation around the $2k mark. In the intermediate term I I am bullish on gold and expect it to continue to outperform as long as the government is running insane deficits, suppressing interest rates in the bond market, printing money like water and using much of that newly printed money to buy its own bonds. In the near term silver will likely outperform gold due to the still wide, but narrowing, gap in the silver gold price ratio as well as declining production coupled with increased industrial demand. Long term, silver prices will overshoot (it's one of the constants of history) and then correct downward.
In trying to look at all angles, and looking at risks to gold, there is one thing I worry about... that being the rolloff in Fed liquidity at a time when the treasury is issuing more debt. The Fed provided liquidity in advance, but now it could almost function as a tightening of liquidity where they are providing less and less liquidity while the treasury is issuing more and more debt. To keep the ship afloat, especially with new stimulus on the way (and more debt along with it) the Fed will need to step up and do their part. If they don't and keep reducing liquidity into that it could cause a liquidity event which definitely could impact metals negatively by proxy of a less negative real yield on treasuries. I think this week is quite pivotal with a Fed meeting and fiscal stimulus continuation deadlines all looming. There's a lot of kindling there that could bring out the metals bulls or bears.

If these things all go smoothly, I do think gold will continue it's recent pattern of consolidating for a few months, then breaking out, then consolidating, then breaking out. I wouldn't be surprised either to see a consolidation or a pullback start anytime between now and 2k. It's probably not a bad time to rebalance if someone is over a rebalancing band. SLV is a bit harder to judge, as it relies also on industry. But copper has been led silver up, so that is a very promising sign on the industrial front. I wouldn't personally make any new SLV purchases at these price levels, but it is a good dip buy candidate to watch.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ad Orientem » Mon Jul 27, 2020 4:34 pm

And gold up another 2% today. New nominal record of $1937/oz.
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Smith1776
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Mon Jul 27, 2020 6:34 pm

Woah. O_O


gold.png
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PP + VP + Bank Cash + Physical Bullion
Knucklehead (noun): Someone who knows the expense ratio of everything but the value of nothing.
The true measurement of a person's worth isn't what they say they believe in, but what they do in defense of those beliefs. If you're not acting on your beliefs, then they probably aren't real. - Edward Snowden
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Tortoise » Mon Jul 27, 2020 6:39 pm

EC0220A0-422A-4333-93EA-A6847884F9F2.gif
EC0220A0-422A-4333-93EA-A6847884F9F2.gif (575.08 KiB) Viewed 168 times
infant (n.): from Latin infans “not able to speak”, from in- "not, opposite of” + fans, present participle of fari “to speak”
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ad Orientem » Mon Jul 27, 2020 6:46 pm

Now $1955. And silver just blew through $25/oz.
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I Shrugged
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by I Shrugged » Mon Jul 27, 2020 7:22 pm

I wish we had like buttons here.
Anyway, like like like like like like....
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Smith1776
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Mon Jul 27, 2020 7:43 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Mon Jul 27, 2020 6:39 pm
EC0220A0-422A-4333-93EA-A6847884F9F2.gif
Please, please, please post this in the Knuckleheads forum. ;D
PP + VP + Bank Cash + Physical Bullion
Knucklehead (noun): Someone who knows the expense ratio of everything but the value of nothing.
The true measurement of a person's worth isn't what they say they believe in, but what they do in defense of those beliefs. If you're not acting on your beliefs, then they probably aren't real. - Edward Snowden
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