Gyroscopic Investing

I am looking at all the stimulus they have announced in the last week. All I have to say is holy crap! I would be shocked if gold isn't at new highs in the next year to two at most. I'm almost hoping this panic selling takes gold back down to that $1350-1400 range, as I would love to do a ~5% overbalance there (from bonds). I just cannot fathom a scenario where gold isn't up big a year from now. I'm incredibly bullish gold long term.

Maybe the fact that coin dealers are completely selling out of gold bullion coins this past week is a leading indicator for the price of gold?

Tortoise wrote: ↑Tue Mar 17, 2020 12:53 pm Maybe the fact that coin dealers are completely selling out of gold bullion coins this past week is a leading indicator for the price of gold?

Yeah, I think the selling has mostly been in paper markets. Big funds selling to meet margin calls or to increase liquidity. There's no way this is not good for gold long term. How often do we get a chance to buy an asset that is fundamentally increasing in value at the same time price is declining? I now have my rules in place for where I would do another stock rebalance if needed, and now I also have rules in place for when I could do a 5% overbalance into gold. Now that the plan is in place, I can just sit back, relax, and see if any of the rules I've put in place get triggered.

Looking through some of the large sellers Provident, Apmex, JM Bullion and many of them are sold out of a majority of their gold inventory bars and coins

pmward wrote: ↑Tue Mar 17, 2020 12:55 pm

Tortoise wrote: ↑Tue Mar 17, 2020 12:53 pm Maybe the fact that coin dealers are completely selling out of gold bullion coins this past week is a leading indicator for the price of gold?

Yeah, I think the selling has mostly been in paper markets. Big funds selling to meet margin calls or to increase liquidity. There's no way this is not good for gold long term. How often do we get a chance to buy an asset that is fundamentally increasing in value at the same time price is declining? I now have my rules in place for where I would do another stock rebalance if needed, and now I also have rules in place for when I could do a 5% overbalance into gold. Now that the plan is in place, I can just sit back, relax, and see if any of the rules I've put in place get triggered.

I have an even easier plan.
Do nothing because I'm already at 65% gold.
Don't try this at home, kids.

ppnewbie wrote: ↑Tue Mar 17, 2020 2:45 pm Looking through some of the large sellers Provident, Apmex, JM Bullion and many of them are sold out of a majority of their gold inventory bars and coins

I placed an alert for when a single coin was back in stock. I guess I responded too slowly because it's sold out again.
That's ok. If gold soars, I won't complain.

I need to work on my overbalance rules. I did get my hands on a sweet valcambi CombiBar!

ppnewbie wrote: ↑Tue Mar 17, 2020 4:28 pm I need to work on my overbalance rules. I did get my hands on a sweet valcambi CombiBar!

PICTURES. PICTURES. PICTURES.

You have no idea how jealous I am.

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 17, 2020 5:44 pm

ppnewbie wrote: ↑Tue Mar 17, 2020 4:28 pm I need to work on my overbalance rules. I did get my hands on a sweet valcambi CombiBar!

PICTURES. PICTURES. PICTURES.

You have no idea how jealous I am.

Here you go:

Just print the photo in full color and keep it in your pocket. It’s worth about the same.

dualstow wrote: ↑Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:21 pm Just print the photo in full color and keep it in your pocket. It’s worth about the same.

If your printer uses real gold for that color, that may be right.

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:04 pm

dualstow wrote: ↑Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:21 pm Just print the photo in full color and keep it in your pocket. It’s worth about the same.

If your printer uses real gold for that color, that may be right.

Mere hyperbole. I’m just proselytizing for 1oz coins.

On a funny note, today https://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html , returns back HTTP response code 504 with the following explanation:

We can't connect to the server for this app or website at this time. There might be too much traffic or a configuration error.



Guess those are words of wisdom and actually they meant some more global configuration error ..

So there's a run on physical bullion, to the extent that gold sellers are running out, but the price is falling? Something smells fishy here.

Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:22 am So there's a run on physical bullion, to the extent that gold sellers are running out, but the price is falling? Something smells fishy here.

Is it falling relative to other currencies? The dollar is special, and stuff.

dualstow wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:33 am

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:04 pm

dualstow wrote: ↑Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:21 pm Just print the photo in full color and keep it in your pocket. It’s worth about the same.

If your printer uses real gold for that color, that may be right.

Mere hyperbole. I’m just proselytizing for 1oz coins.

Of course I wouldn't recommend that anyone put a lot of their assets into that form, but it is very cool and the premium hasn't been completely outrageous. So buying one or two wouldn't necessarily be a dumb idea.

Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:22 am So there's a run on physical bullion, to the extent that gold sellers are running out, but the price is falling? Something smells fishy here.

Not fishy at all. The heavily levered futures contracts that big funds trade have more of an impact on gold price than the unlevered coins that individual investors purchase.

pmward wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:16 am

Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:22 am So there's a run on physical bullion, to the extent that gold sellers are running out, but the price is falling? Something smells fishy here.

Not fishy at all. The heavily levered futures contracts that big funds trade have more of an impact on gold price than the unlevered coins that individual investors purchase.

Yes, that makes sense. But it did seem pretty weird in 2008 when the price was dropping like a rock and there was almost nothing to purchase.

So much of this sounds exactly like talk that was going around gold bug circles in 2008-2011. Paper price is disconnecting from physical, gold coins are out of stock, yada yada. To think I used to look at the King World News articles all the time back then and all the same voices saying the same stuff now. Bah. Looking for excuses on why gold hasn't performed as expected...yet.

But real helicopter money is coming this time. The numbers everyone is talking about this time always end in "trillions."

If gold can't perform over the next year or two, then I may start cutting down my allocation percentage.

Levered players always control every market, not just gold. Right now in the liquidity squeeze institutions are selling... not because they want to, but because they have to. If anything, from a gold perspective it should be comforting that this is brining back memories of 2008. I mean gold went on an epic run just after that. This is why I'm looking to do a 5% overbalance if we hit that 1350-1400 retest area, I think that's the perfect launching pad, and I expect institutional buyers to really step up at that level. Also, look at the steepener in the yield curve going on right now. 10 year yields are back up to 1.1% after being as low as 0.36% last week. That's going to be bad for gold in the short term, but it shows that the market is starting to fear inflation a bit with all the stimulus announced (not to mention the supply side disruptions).

Interestingly enough, Texas Metals just emailed me this, totally on point to the earlier discussion: https://mailchi.mp/texmetals/why-is-the ... uge-demand

Basically, it just seems like the demand for paper vs. physical gold is different, so their prices are different. Sometimes they're very similar, other times (like now) physical is in much higher demand.

Coin dealers can't keep coins on their shelves because they're not raising the premiums high enough, just like grocers can't keep product on their shelves because they refuse to raise prices (and are crucified by everyone if they do).

For posterity

byoo-tee-full.

Would love to see gold kick in as long as it's out of stock and I am unable to add to my tiny coffers.

First character looks like the ancient form of 子, son, but I'm not sure about the second.

Edit: wife says it's 子鼠, year of the rat. (Tips hat to Vinny).

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:36 pm For posterity

That's the biggest gain in $ but not in percentages. The London gold fix was up about 11% from January 15th to January 16th.