Gyroscopic Investing

Posted: **Thu Nov 07, 2019 5:22 pm**

What I'd love in Jan on my annual rebalance is the opposite of what happened last year. With the drop in stocks late last year I was not able to lock in gains and sell some stocks in a rebalance.

This year I'd be able to rebalance a bit out of stocks if this uptrend holds.

Posted: **Thu Nov 07, 2019 5:56 pm**

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2019 5:22 pm What I'd love in Jan on my annual rebalance is the opposite of what happened last year. With the drop in stocks late last year I was not able to lock in gains and sell some stocks in a rebalance.

This year I'd be able to rebalance a bit out of stocks if this uptrend holds.

You could always do it early. What are the odds that optimum gains are going to line up with your preferred date of sale?

Posted: **Thu Nov 07, 2019 8:52 pm**

dualstow wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2019 5:56 pm
Cortopassi wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2019 5:22 pm What I'd love in Jan on my annual rebalance is the opposite of what happened last year. With the drop in stocks late last year I was not able to lock in gains and sell some stocks in a rebalance.

This year I'd be able to rebalance a bit out of stocks if this uptrend holds.
You could always do it early. What are the odds that optimum gains are going to line up with your preferred date of sale?

That would be timing in a way. Blindly doing it in early January makes it mindless and emotionless -- as well, I have my IRA contribution cash going in early January each year so that adds to the cash amount.

Posted: **Thu Nov 07, 2019 8:54 pm**

Yes, it would absolutely be timing.

Posted: **Fri Nov 08, 2019 9:02 am**

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2019 8:52 pm
dualstow wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2019 5:56 pm
Cortopassi wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2019 5:22 pm What I'd love in Jan on my annual rebalance is the opposite of what happened last year. With the drop in stocks late last year I was not able to lock in gains and sell some stocks in a rebalance.

This year I'd be able to rebalance a bit out of stocks if this uptrend holds.
You could always do it early. What are the odds that optimum gains are going to line up with your preferred date of sale?
That would be timing in a way. Blindly doing it in early January makes it mindless and emotionless -- as well, I have my IRA contribution cash going in early January each year so that adds to the cash amount.

"That would be timing in a way. Blindly doing it in early January makes it mindless and emotionless"

I support you STAYING the course for the reasons you state! Reading what you wrote reaffirms it all for me.

Vinny

Posted: **Fri Nov 08, 2019 12:03 pm**

Wow, I'm amazed at how little I care about this....

since I decided to only look at my portfolio every 3 months. When I saw this post I thought, hey maybe I should check...then I thought, nah, got better things to do.

Posted: **Fri Dec 13, 2019 11:40 am**

Nice to see gold at 1479.

Stocks were supposed to get a big boost from the latest trade & tariff talk. Now flat.

Posted: **Fri Dec 13, 2019 1:02 pm**

dualstow wrote: ↑Fri Dec 13, 2019 11:40 am Nice to see gold at 1479.

Stocks were supposed to get a big boost from the latest trade & tariff talk. Now flat.

I think there is a slowly growing sense that the stock market is overpriced.

Posted: **Fri Dec 13, 2019 1:21 pm**

dualstow wrote: ↑Fri Dec 13, 2019 11:40 am Nice to see gold at 1479.

Stocks were supposed to get a big boost from the latest trade & tariff talk. Now flat.

buy on the rumor sell on the news

Posted: **Tue Feb 18, 2020 5:32 pm**

Hey now, gold is over $1,600/oz.

Gotta love the Everything Bubble

Posted: **Tue Feb 18, 2020 6:11 pm**

Indeed.

These are the good times.

— Willing, ‘The Mandibles’

Posted: **Sat Feb 22, 2020 11:03 am**

sophie wrote: ↑Sat Feb 22, 2020 9:56 am from dualstow's signature: Gold has passed 1645/oz

Thought this was worth recording permanently because...Geez. What is going on with gold? Is this maybe about the coronavirus? Then again...who knows. It's all crowdspeak.

On CNBC, it was noted that even as people continue to pour money into the market (Stock Scream thread has an article about Mom and Pop investors excited by fee-free trading), there is also money going into classic safe havens. Hence the falling yields and rise in the price of gold. Why are they also going into safe havens? Supposedly a lot of it *is* corona. Some think that the market is finally ready to tank because corona is eating into profits: airline companies, internationally sold beverages, lots of things.

Others think that this will be wrapped up by May- that the virus will be contained, things will go back to normal, and in the rear view mirror, this will look like a buying opportunity.

Posted: **Sat Feb 22, 2020 11:46 am**

dualstow wrote: ↑Sat Feb 22, 2020 11:03 am
sophie wrote: ↑Sat Feb 22, 2020 9:56 am from dualstow's signature: Gold has passed 1645/oz

Thought this was worth recording permanently because...Geez. What is going on with gold? Is this maybe about the coronavirus? Then again...who knows. It's all crowdspeak.
On CNBC, it was noted that even as people continue to pour money into the market (Stock Scream thread has an article about Mom and Pop investors excited by fee-free trading), there is also money going into classic safe havens. Hence the falling yields and rise in the price of gold. Why are they also going into safe havens? Supposedly a lot of it *is* corona. Some think that the market is finally ready to tank because corona is eating into profits: airline companies, internationally sold beverages, lots of things.

Others think that this will be wrapped up by May- that the virus will be contained, things will go back to normal, and in the rear view mirror, this will look like a buying opportunity.

Or a selling opportunity for gold.

I'm going to be selling a modest amount but not for that reason; I'm planning to buy a house this summer and am raising cash.

Posted: **Sat Feb 22, 2020 2:36 pm**

Yes

I'm close to selling some paper gold at breakeven, gold which I already replaced by buying coins months ago.

Posted: **Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:41 am**

Today is a shining example of the calming effect of the PP. Gold and bonds more than making up for the stock massacre.

Posted: **Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:58 am**

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:41 am Today is a shining example of the calming effect of the PP. Gold and bonds more than making up for the stock massacre.

I'm a little ashamed to say I get a bit excited on days like today, so maybe not so "calming". Happy to have days like this which make up for the tracking error against stocks when they're humming along to new highs every day.

(a lot of my future compensation is stock-based, so there's some sadness inside too as I think about that)

Posted: **Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:59 pm**

Interesting that gold is getting crushed back down but bonds are holding.

Posted: **Mon Feb 24, 2020 2:50 pm**

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:59 pm Interesting that gold is getting crushed back down but bonds are holding.

Yes, gold is getting "crushed back down" to being up only $16 on the day. Woe is me!

Posted: **Mon Feb 24, 2020 3:56 pm**

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 24, 2020 2:50 pm
Cortopassi wrote: ↑Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:59 pm Interesting that gold is getting crushed back down but bonds are holding.
Yes, gold is getting "crushed back down" to being up only $16 on the day. Woe is me!

Crushed was a hard word, but when you consider that stocks held their losses, bonds held their gains, and gold did this in the afternoon, it is definitely an odd man out for some reason.

Posted: **Mon Feb 24, 2020 4:23 pm**

Gold has always been the most volatile component in the PP, by far. And it marches to its own drumbeat. Same with silver. Bonds and precious metals were up today and helped to offset the stock market's trip to the woodshed. Life is good.

Posted: **Mon Feb 24, 2020 5:14 pm**

If Budd were still here, he would be complaining that gold and bonds "failed to buoy the PP as advertised" since they merely softened the blow from stocks instead of more than offsetting the losses

Posted: **Mon Feb 24, 2020 6:57 pm**

LOL. Budd was one of those ppl who really needed to be in just cash or short term bonds.

Posted: **Tue Feb 25, 2020 3:28 pm**

Let me channel Budd here, and say, what the hell? I mean, sure it is still technically up for the past few days, but is this the old BS of people selling gold to fund their margin calls?

Posted: **Fri Feb 28, 2020 8:20 am**

4 days and no gold scream room discussion, interesting.

tech, I was wondering what your thoughts are over the past 2-3 days where gold has languished. It was upsetting to me this morning to see it down again, but then I ran a 3 month comparison and felt better.

I know there is no 1:1 guaranteed inverse correlation, but it did start out really strongly when the markets tanked.

Posted: **Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:32 am**

Personally, I think it's because the market is sniffing deflation... and they are going back to the old trusty deflation handbook. Long bonds are *the* asset right now and nothing else matters. If the virus starts to take hold in the U.S. I expect to see gold react a bit more. I also think it will react more if/when the Fed announces rate cuts or QE. But I'm not surprised to see it consolidating right now in the short term while bonds are running like they stole something. From a long term perspective, it's probably better for it to consolidate and digest its recent gains a bit. If it kept screaming higher like bonds are it would also put gold at risk of a blowoff top.

Gyroscopic Investing

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