The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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technovelist
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by technovelist » Mon Aug 05, 2019 3:52 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 8:46 am
If mathjak or budd are lurking, what are your thoughts now looking at the one year returns below? Seems gold is maybe finally having its day after a very, very, very long wait. And bonds are smoking.

I don't obviously see what changes how things are looking at least short term. It doesn't feel like there will be some snapback stock rally, that Trump or Mnuchin or someone else has much ability anymore to come out and move markets in a positive sense. I think they've all been called out.

Image
I suspect mathjak and budd will get back in after another $500 increase in the gold price, then watch it drop or stagnate for a couple of years, then go away mad again.

That's the way it tends to go with the Permanent Portfolio. If you can't tolerate a slow more or less steady increase, you will jump in and out of gold at just the wrong time.
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Kbg
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Kbg » Mon Aug 05, 2019 10:06 pm

Poor Budd...
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dualstow
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Mon Aug 05, 2019 10:23 pm

You don’t need any gurus, Corto.
If you meet the Buddha on the road, kill him.
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technovelist
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by technovelist » Tue Aug 06, 2019 8:42 pm

$1486 on Kitco, up another $13 today.

I told you this would happen because I've been selling a bit of my holdings.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by drumminj » Tue Aug 06, 2019 9:46 pm

technovelist wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 8:42 pm
$1486 on Kitco, up another $13 today.

I told you this would happen because I've been selling a bit of my holdings.
Thank you for taking one for the team! :) It's just paper gains, but it still feels good right now...
Don
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Don » Tue Aug 06, 2019 9:56 pm

technovelist wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 3:52 pm
Cortopassi wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 8:46 am
If mathjak or budd are lurking, what are your thoughts now looking at the one year returns below? Seems gold is maybe finally having its day after a very, very, very long wait. And bonds are smoking.

I don't obviously see what changes how things are looking at least short term. It doesn't feel like there will be some snapback stock rally, that Trump or Mnuchin or someone else has much ability anymore to come out and move markets in a positive sense. I think they've all been called out.

Image
I suspect mathjak and budd will get back in after another $500 increase in the gold price, then watch it drop or stagnate for a couple of years, then go away mad again.

That's the way it tends to go with the Permanent Portfolio. If you can't tolerate a slow more or less steady increase, you will jump in and out of gold at just the wrong time.
They can't answer because they were both banned.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by stuper1 » Tue Aug 06, 2019 10:27 pm

Banned for good reason, as I recall.
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Ad Orientem
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ad Orientem » Tue Aug 06, 2019 11:29 pm

It's about half past midnight here and gold is within spitting distance of $1500.
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Smith1776
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Tue Aug 06, 2019 11:46 pm

I'd bet decent money that either of them may have created new accounts heh. ;D

Regardless, it's times like this where I find it interesting that no one on the Bogleheads forum is even making a peep about gold. The amount of handwaving and contortion there is funny.

The true portfolio balance of the PP never ceases to amaze me.
e + 1 = 0
technovelist
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by technovelist » Wed Aug 07, 2019 6:51 am

Smith1776 wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 11:46 pm
I'd bet decent money that either of them may have created new accounts heh. ;D

Regardless, it's times like this where I find it interesting that no one on the Bogleheads forum is even making a peep about gold. The amount of handwaving and contortion there is funny.

The true portfolio balance of the PP never ceases to amaze me.
They have excellent arguments against including gold in a portfolio. Here are the strongest ones:

1. You can't eat it, whereas stock certificates make a great salad!
2. It doesn't pay dividends or interest, whereas Berkshire Hathaway... um, never mind that!
3. It's a "barbarous relic" according to Keynes... although he didn't say that.

So you can see why they don't want to include it!
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by technovelist » Wed Aug 07, 2019 7:19 am

drumminj wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 9:46 pm
technovelist wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 8:42 pm
$1486 on Kitco, up another $13 today.

I told you this would happen because I've been selling a bit of my holdings.
Thank you for taking one for the team! :) It's just paper gains, but it still feels good right now...
I really did take one for the team. I've sold off more than 10% of my gold in the last 12 months, at prices around $1400.
However, early last year I cashed in another asset and bought gold with the proceeds, at about $1350.
So I still have more gold than I did a couple of years ago.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by technovelist » Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:01 am

$1500 in the rear view mirror.
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