The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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dualstow
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Aug 01, 2019 8:27 pm

technovelist wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 8:19 pm
Almost $1450 this afternoon. Yay?
Yay indeed, tech. Yea on that yay.
Cortopassi wrote:
Wed Jul 17, 2019 3:59 pm
I would love for you to be right, but I'll be climbing that wall of worry, until I can rebalance because gold breaks my upper band!
How far apart are your contractions?
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technovelist
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by technovelist » Sun Aug 04, 2019 10:19 pm

$1453 on Kitco.
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ochotona
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona » Sun Aug 04, 2019 10:25 pm

Stock futures are dumping now also. Bonds and gold tomorrow for sure.
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technovelist
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by technovelist » Mon Aug 05, 2019 8:27 am

New 6 year high over $1460.
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Cortopassi
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Aug 05, 2019 8:46 am

If mathjak or budd are lurking, what are your thoughts now looking at the one year returns below? Seems gold is maybe finally having its day after a very, very, very long wait. And bonds are smoking.

I don't obviously see what changes how things are looking at least short term. It doesn't feel like there will be some snapback stock rally, that Trump or Mnuchin or someone else has much ability anymore to come out and move markets in a positive sense. I think they've all been called out.

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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona » Mon Aug 05, 2019 9:42 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 8:46 am
If mathjak or budd are lurking, what are your thoughts now looking at the one year returns below? Seems gold is maybe finally having its day after a very, very, very long wait. And bonds are smoking.

I don't obviously see what changes how things are looking at least short term. It doesn't feel like there will be some snapback stock rally, that Trump or Mnuchin or someone else has much ability anymore to come out and move markets in a positive sense. I think they've all been called out.
If we are looking at a major market decline, it won't go in a straight line. We'll go to December lows, then have a blistering rally, some will get sucked back in... but it will fail, and then after some more thrashing, it will go below December lows. Then another heroic rally, and so on. The true capitulation will come much later. Below 2015 highs, for example.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Mon Aug 05, 2019 10:03 am

Yeah I also am of the mind that a correction in stocks is likely coming. How large of a correction, and when I'm not sure. But we are getting close to that ominous September/October timeframe and stocks are definitely sitting on shaky ground at the moment. We just lost that 2880 support level that signaled the start of the last correction back in the fall. I'm not really sure that anything other than a trade war deal that eliminates all tariffs, and another rate cut in September (with dovish forward guidance) could save this market. And I think the odds of both are slim. I also have doubts that a 25bp cut would be enough to really bull up the market. I think we would need at least another 50bp taken off to really wake up the animal spirits enough to really drive the market significantly higher. Otherwise, I think we are bound to either correct in the near future, or stagnate and chop sideways for a long while before eventually resolving one way or the other. That's my prognostication at least. I'm a big fan of gold and bonds in the short term.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona » Mon Aug 05, 2019 10:43 am

pmward wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 10:03 am
... or stagnate and chop sideways for a long while before eventually resolving one way or the other. That's my prognostication at least. I'm a big fan of gold and bonds in the short term.
So here's something that will scare lots of people on this board, but who knows?

1. cash at 0%
2. gold chops around here
3. even while cash at 0%, long bond rates go up... steepening the yield curve
4. stocks stagnate and chop sideways
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Mon Aug 05, 2019 11:15 am

I wonder what China is going to do about Hong Kong and how that will affect gold.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona » Mon Aug 05, 2019 12:55 pm

dualstow wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 11:15 am
I wonder what China is going to do about Hong Kong and how that will affect gold.
If they do a 1989-style Tienanmen suppression, who knows?
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Aug 05, 2019 2:18 pm

ochotona wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 12:55 pm
dualstow wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 11:15 am
I wonder what China is going to do about Hong Kong and how that will affect gold.
If they do a 1989-style Tienanmen suppression, who knows?
God, I hope that can't still happen 30 years later. I know it can, but jeez. That's a yeah, great, I own gold scenario, but what good is it if the world goes to shit.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Aug 05, 2019 2:31 pm

And for posterity's sake, when some poster a few months or years from now posts here saying how much gold sucks, why should I own it:

Don't know about you guys but my PP even to slightly up today. Again, I wish I found this allocation 30 years ago.

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