The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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drumminj
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by drumminj » Thu Jun 20, 2019 9:04 pm

And now it's up over $1410. Not gonna complain!
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dualstow
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri Jun 21, 2019 1:50 am

O0
You know you’re into the pp when you see expiration dates at the grocery store and think, I have some bonds coming due then.
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Kriegsspiel
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Fri Jun 21, 2019 8:47 am

Dieter wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 8:45 pm
Wow, Quicken doth say my gold ROI is > 0%.
jacksonM wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 4:25 pm
Physical gold, unfortunately, is still a bit underwater as some of the first ones I bought were for $1725/ounce. (Correction: Even my physical gold hit the break even point yesterday)
Same here. Bought some gold back in 2012 for close to $1800, but overall it's at 0% nominal. If you look at Tyler's heat map, 2013-2015 really brutalized gold's returns.
To die, to sleep
To sleep, perchance to dream; ay, there's the rub
For in that sleep of death what dreams may come
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by jacksonM » Fri Jun 21, 2019 1:27 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Fri Jun 21, 2019 8:47 am
Dieter wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 8:45 pm
Wow, Quicken doth say my gold ROI is > 0%.
jacksonM wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 4:25 pm
Physical gold, unfortunately, is still a bit underwater as some of the first ones I bought were for $1725/ounce. (Correction: Even my physical gold hit the break even point yesterday)
Same here. Bought some gold back in 2012 for close to $1800, but overall it's at 0% nominal. If you look at Tyler's heat map, 2013-2015 really brutalized gold's returns.
Yes, I remember the brutalization of gold very well but strangely enough it increased my confidence in the PP because it showed me that one sector can endure a complete meltdown without ruining the whole portfolio. I think I was down, at the most, about 2% overall during that period.
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dualstow
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri Jun 21, 2019 1:51 pm

I'm still down 5-6% overall and very envious of you breakeven guys.
You know you’re into the pp when you see expiration dates at the grocery store and think, I have some bonds coming due then.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Fri Jun 21, 2019 2:31 pm

Well I think it's safe to say bonds was a false breakout, as they spent one day above resistance and then plunged back down very powerfully today. Stocks also rejected, though not with as much strength as bonds. So Krieg got himself not one, but TWO prairie dogs today, lol. So far gold is the only of the three assets to be holding their breakout. It does seem to be getting some hesitation at $1400 though, I think getting some space above that level is key to trigger the more stubborn shorts to cover.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri Jun 21, 2019 3:31 pm

pmward wrote:
Fri Jun 21, 2019 2:31 pm
So Krieg got himself not one, but TWO prairie dogs today, lol.
I recommend psyllium seed and plenty of water.
You know you’re into the pp when you see expiration dates at the grocery store and think, I have some bonds coming due then.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by sophie » Sat Jun 22, 2019 1:26 pm

pmward wrote:
Fri Jun 21, 2019 2:31 pm
Well I think it's safe to say bonds was a false breakout, as they spent one day above resistance and then plunged back down very powerfully today. Stocks also rejected, though not with as much strength as bonds. So Krieg got himself not one, but TWO prairie dogs today, lol. So far gold is the only of the three assets to be holding their breakout. It does seem to be getting some hesitation at $1400 though, I think getting some space above that level is key to trigger the more stubborn shorts to cover.
This sounds like coverage of a horse race!

It's kind of fun to listen to stuff like this even though it's not even slightly doing justice to the market forces that are driving these trends - which are likely far more complex than any one person understands. It's why trying to manipulate prices produces results that even people who spend lifetimes studying it can't predict.

Very few people seem to understand this...Harry Browne did, very well.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Sun Jun 23, 2019 9:47 am

sophie wrote:
Sat Jun 22, 2019 1:26 pm
pmward wrote:
Fri Jun 21, 2019 2:31 pm
Well I think it's safe to say bonds was a false breakout, as they spent one day above resistance and then plunged back down very powerfully today. Stocks also rejected, though not with as much strength as bonds. So Krieg got himself not one, but TWO prairie dogs today, lol. So far gold is the only of the three assets to be holding their breakout. It does seem to be getting some hesitation at $1400 though, I think getting some space above that level is key to trigger the more stubborn shorts to cover.
This sounds like coverage of a horse race!

It's kind of fun to listen to stuff like this even though it's not even slightly doing justice to the market forces that are driving these trends - which are likely far more complex than any one person understands. It's why trying to manipulate prices produces results that even people who spend lifetimes studying it can't predict.

Very few people seem to understand this...Harry Browne did, very well.
Haha, yeah I'm just looking at the short term on this. The only reason for short term moves is pretty much all speculation. There's no real reason or logic behind it, it's all greed and fear. The complexity behind what is causing that speculation is out of my wheelhouse, all I can do is examine and analyze the results of the speculation, not the underlying cause. At any point in time there are large institutional shorts and longs for every asset, and there are certain levels that both will throw in the towel and levels that both will double down. These short term levels are fairly predictable and do follow repeatable patterns. Short term sentiment can also change on a dime though, there is no such thing as a risk free trade. But sometimes that short term sentiment turns into long term sentiment and that is what benefits us here. Mainly the reason I post this stuff now is because I am extremely bullish on gold, and the negativity on gold the last few months here has made no sense to me since from a technical standpoint every signal I use is bullish on gold and has been for months now. While most have been pessimistic on gold, I've been slowly watching the steam build up since back in the winter, just waiting for the moment the top blows off, haha.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Dieter » Tue Jun 25, 2019 9:30 pm

dualstow wrote:
Fri Jun 21, 2019 1:51 pm
I'm still down 5-6% overall and very envious of you breakeven guys.
I did go slow (and am still low gold - GBish for part of retirement savings), but a solid percentage of my Gold still underwater.

Started buying IAU in 2012. To date, purchase price between around 16.5 (2012) and 11 (2016).

Interesting first few years of Gold and LTT ownership. 2013 sucked (switched from Bogleheadish ~65/35 in 2012)

But yes, nice to be overall Gold positive.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Jul 02, 2019 2:15 pm

If the last month in gold doesn't have your head spinning, you are a very calm person.

Sunday night, oh yeah, Trump is pulling back on all the China tariff talk, gold is going to get hammered. And it did.

Tuesday morning -- what changed??
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Xan » Tue Jul 02, 2019 2:25 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Jul 02, 2019 2:15 pm
If the last month in gold doesn't have your head spinning, you are a very calm person.
Or you're not paying attention. Which the PP is good at letting you do.
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