The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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Cortopassi
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Jun 19, 2019 9:12 pm

Holy crap! Is this a breakout?
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ochotona
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona » Wed Jun 19, 2019 10:26 pm

I think where it goes on the next pullback is quite important. If it never goes below $1250, that's good.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona » Thu Jun 20, 2019 6:23 am

My gold stake has grown all by itself from 10% to 11%. I am well pleased. I'm going let it run.
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Cortopassi
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Jun 20, 2019 7:52 am

ochotona wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 10:26 pm
I think where it goes on the next pullback is quite important. If it never goes below $1250, that's good.
$1250 or $1350? $1250 would be a pretty large pullback at this point
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Jun 20, 2019 8:34 am

I was wondering the same thing.
Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 7:52 am
ochotona wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 10:26 pm
I think where it goes on the next pullback is quite important. If it never goes below $1250, that's good.
$1250 or $1350? $1250 would be a pretty large pullback at this point
Gold has been above 1445
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Thu Jun 20, 2019 9:32 am

Yes this is a legit breakout from an 8 year base. If we drop much below $1350 then it's a failed breakout and is likely to drop fast. So we don't want to see below $1350 ever. However, it would not be a surprise at all if we pulled back and retested that $1350 in the coming weeks. I think that would be healthy to cement in the support level with a successful retest. It's also possible we could rocket up if we get a short squeeze and never retest. I think about $1400 is when the short squeeze is likely to really pick up steam.

My only concern is that bonds (TLT) and the S&P are both testing breakouts today as well (though it looks like the S&P is rejecting at the moment). Though both of them are a bit more extended and not coming out of as nice of a base as gold, it is very strange to see all 3 testing breakouts on the same day. I suspect 1 or 2 will be false breakouts and prairie dog it. Which will it be? Gold certainly seems to be the most decisive breakout today, so that's a good sign for gold. Though, who knows with this administration, every day there is potential for surprise, haha.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Thu Jun 20, 2019 12:53 pm

Gold has gone up a bit since I last checked, solid. But I'm finding it more awesome that 'prairie dogging' is a technical analysis term, since I'm more familiar with it as poop humor.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Jun 20, 2019 1:50 pm

pmward wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 9:32 am
it is very strange to see all 3 testing breakouts on the same day
+1
I don't like 3 assets going up on the same day even when it's not a breakout. Makes me nervous.

kriegs: ugh. Reabsorption, I bet.
Gold has been above 1445
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Cortopassi
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Jun 20, 2019 4:01 pm

Almost 6.5 years since gold has been at this level. March 2014. Wow. Hope it holds. About freaking time.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by jacksonM » Thu Jun 20, 2019 4:25 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 4:01 pm
Almost 6.5 years since gold has been at this level. March 2014. Wow. Hope it holds. About freaking time.
Original ETF gold I bought (IAU) just went from red to green for the first time in a long time.

Physical gold, unfortunately, is still a bit underwater as some of the first ones I bought were for $1725/ounce. (Correction: Even my physical gold hit the break even point yesterday)

Assuming the huge jump today was because of the threat of war with Iran. Despite the gains, I would rather that didn't happen.
Last edited by jacksonM on Fri Jun 21, 2019 6:37 am, edited 2 times in total.
pmward
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Thu Jun 20, 2019 5:05 pm

I think it's mostly about the Fed to be honest. I think that's why everything is rallying, expectations of Fed easing. However, I'm not so sure Fed easing is really a good thing for stocks long term, it's just buying a little bit of time is all.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Dieter » Thu Jun 20, 2019 8:45 pm

Wow, Quicken doth say my gold ROI is > 0%.

Weird....

:)
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