The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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jhogue
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by jhogue » Fri May 17, 2019 4:40 pm

I believe in having some of everything, but don't put all of my trust in any one thing.
“Groucho Marx wrote:
A stock trader asked him, "Groucho, where do you put all your money?" Groucho was said to have replied, "In Treasury bonds", and the trader said, "You can't make much money on those." Groucho said, "You can if you have enough of them!"
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Cortopassi
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Fri May 17, 2019 6:53 pm

jhogue wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 4:40 pm
I believe in having some of everything, but don't put all of my trust in any one thing.
Yes.

TLT is leading the pack in one year returns.

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pugchief
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pugchief » Fri May 17, 2019 8:25 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 6:53 pm

TLT is leading the pack in one year returns.
I don't pay close attention, so I am shocked to hear that. I would have guessed stocks.
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Kriegsspiel
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Fri May 17, 2019 9:47 pm

Ditto

It looks like bonds have been at the top for a lot of the past year.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Sat May 18, 2019 9:11 am

And to boot that is a Yahoo Finance graph which does not include yields, only change in the ETF value. So bonds are in actuality up even more. Bonds have a lot of momentum right now.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Sat May 18, 2019 12:25 pm

pugchief wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 8:25 pm
Cortopassi wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 6:53 pm
TLT is leading the pack in one year returns.
I don't pay close attention, so I am shocked to hear that. I would have guessed stocks.
(kriegsspiel) Ditto.
Thirded!
Perth Mint ETF makes NYSE debut as gold hits a six-year high - yahoo
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pmward
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Fri May 31, 2019 9:39 am

Well I guess the one good part of this trade mess is that gold is catching a bid. Gold broke above the downward sloping channel line, as well as it's 50 day moving average, and just set a higher high (in conjunction with a higher low). It's now above all short and long term averages as well, and momentum just turned positive and is picking up steam. In my book that fits all the criteria I use for an uptrend.
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Cortopassi
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Jun 03, 2019 1:02 pm

pmward, do you still see gold getting bid? We've done this $1200 something to $1350 something dance now it seems for years.

I know I am not really supposed to care, but if budd and mathjak are lurking, wonder what their thoughts are on the current 1 year comparison. There are few people who would have called what's going on with TLT.

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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Mon Jun 03, 2019 1:02 pm

Boom! In the last 3 trading days alone we've officially engulfed the entire last 9 weeks of trading. It looks to me that the market wants to retest that strong ~1350-1375 resistance level. We've got a lot of short term momentum starting to brew (momentum on the daily chart has started to spike up in the positive the last few days, on a weekly chart it's just starting to turn up) so there is a chance...
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Mon Jun 03, 2019 1:06 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Mon Jun 03, 2019 1:02 pm
pmward, do you still see gold getting bid? We've done this $1200 something to $1350 something dance now it seems for years.

I know I am not really supposed to care, but if budd and mathjak are lurking, wonder what their thoughts are on the current 1 year comparison. There are few people who would have called what's going on with TLT.

Image
Lol, looks like we cross posted. See above. But yeah, I think we have a chance of breaking out from that stubborn 1350-1375 supply zone. I'm not going to get too excited until we break above that. But with an 8 year consolidation at that level, I think that we could get a very strong break out if we can get above and stay above that level. I pretty much view that 1350-1375 range as *the* line in the sand, where when we break above it and hold above it I think we will officially start the next cyclical bull market in gold. We will get a short squeeze when we break those levels, and I believe that will be enough to get the longs excited, and the longs are what will sustain the next bull cycle. We just need to get above that level and not prairie dog it and good things will happen.

I'm also still bullish on bonds, but I do think that the market has gotten ahead of itself and that we have a pullback, chop, or some form of consolidation coming in the near term. The long bond trade has been a bit too easy lately. Bonds don't tend to just shoot straight up like a rocket ship like this.
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Cortopassi
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Jun 05, 2019 7:43 am

So, what is going on here? I'm good with it, but this head fake has happened so many times before...
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Wed Jun 05, 2019 9:05 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Wed Jun 05, 2019 7:43 am
So, what is going on here? I'm good with it, but this head fake has happened so many times before...
Fed is hinting at easing and the DXY is dropping. The sellers have indeed been ruthless at the $1350-1375 range. So I expect them to come out again as that short sell has been easy money for 8 years straight now. But if the market keeps faltering the bulls could overpower the bears, and cause a short squeeze that finally breaks that strong resistance level. We will have to see. It really just depends on who has the most steam, the bulls or bears. I will say that momentum is very strong right now, so that at least gives a small edge to the bulls. But that momentum could also fade as we get into testing that supply range.
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