Gyroscopic Investing

If the last month in gold doesn't have your head spinning, you are a very calm person.

Sunday night, oh yeah, Trump is pulling back on all the China tariff talk, gold is going to get hammered. And it did.

Tuesday morning -- what changed??

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2019 2:15 pmIf the last month in gold doesn't have your head spinning, you are a very calm person.

Or you're not paying attention. Which the PP is good at letting you do.

Xan wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2019 2:25 pm

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2019 2:15 pmIf the last month in gold doesn't have your head spinning, you are a very calm person.

Or you're not paying attention. Which the PP is good at letting you do.

+1

Xan wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2019 2:25 pm

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2019 2:15 pmIf the last month in gold doesn't have your head spinning, you are a very calm person.

I am only in my first year in PP and my head is spinning constantly, can't stop checking the charts.

Or you're not paying attention. Which the PP is good at letting you do.

They assured me go into PP and you can relax and sleep as a baby. it is a lie! Better go into 60/40 looks much more relaxed

johntaylor wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2019 6:26 pm

Xan wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2019 2:25 pm

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2019 2:15 pmIf the last month in gold doesn't have your head spinning, you are a very calm person.

I am only in my first year in PP and my head is spinning constantly, can't stop checking the charts.

Or you're not paying attention. Which the PP is good at letting you do.

They assured me go into PP and you can relax and sleep as a baby. it is a lie! Better go into 60/40 looks much more relaxed

If a 60/40 portfolio would make you more comfortable then by all means go there. If you are not sleeping at night then you need to make some changes.

Ray Dalio says gold will be a top investment during upcoming ‘paradigm shift’ for global markets...

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/17/ray-dal ... rkets.html

Ad Orientem wrote: ↑Wed Jul 17, 2019 1:47 pm Ray Dalio says gold will be a top investment during upcoming ‘paradigm shift’ for global markets...

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/17/ray-dal ... rkets.html

Love it.

Technically speaking, gold just broke out of another consolidation today. After breaking out of the wedge like a rocket last month, the last 4 weeks it's been consolidating in a pennant. A pennant formation can be either bullish or bearish. So I've been watching it closely to see which way it resolves. Today was a pretty decisive breakout above that pennant. It's also the highest daily close we've had of this rally. All the above using IAU for analysis.

I would love for you to be right, but I'll be climbing that wall of worry, until I can rebalance because gold breaks my upper band!

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Wed Jul 17, 2019 3:59 pm I would love for you to be right, but I'll be climbing that wall of worry, until I can rebalance because gold breaks my upper band!

What price is your rebalance band triggered at?

And while we are on the subject... silver has shot all the way up to $16.00. I have been nibbling in silver for the last year as the silver gold price ration has climbed from the high 70s:1 range up to 93:1. Just recently... touching a 45 year high.

pmward wrote: ↑Wed Jul 17, 2019 4:33 pm

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Wed Jul 17, 2019 3:59 pm I would love for you to be right, but I'll be climbing that wall of worry, until I can rebalance because gold breaks my upper band!

What price is your rebalance band triggered at?

It’s all back and forth with the other assets, right? If the others were to stay exactly as where they are now, I would rebalance at gold north of $2000 an ounce, 140% band.

Sure....I’ll be happy if I can rebalance out of gold a bit at my annual rebalance in Jan

Almost $1450 this afternoon. Yay?

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 01, 2019 8:19 pm Almost $1450 this afternoon. Yay?

Yay indeed, tech. Yea on that yay.

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Wed Jul 17, 2019 3:59 pm I would love for you to be right, but I'll be climbing that wall of worry, until I can rebalance because gold breaks my upper band!

How far apart are your contractions?

$1453 on Kitco.

Stock futures are dumping now also. Bonds and gold tomorrow for sure.

New 6 year high over $1460.

If mathjak or budd are lurking, what are your thoughts now looking at the one year returns below? Seems gold is maybe finally having its day after a very, very, very long wait. And bonds are smoking.

I don't obviously see what changes how things are looking at least short term. It doesn't feel like there will be some snapback stock rally, that Trump or Mnuchin or someone else has much ability anymore to come out and move markets in a positive sense. I think they've all been called out.

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Mon Aug 05, 2019 8:46 am If mathjak or budd are lurking, what are your thoughts now looking at the one year returns below? Seems gold is maybe finally having its day after a very, very, very long wait. And bonds are smoking.

I don't obviously see what changes how things are looking at least short term. It doesn't feel like there will be some snapback stock rally, that Trump or Mnuchin or someone else has much ability anymore to come out and move markets in a positive sense. I think they've all been called out.

If we are looking at a major market decline, it won't go in a straight line. We'll go to December lows, then have a blistering rally, some will get sucked back in... but it will fail, and then after some more thrashing, it will go below December lows. Then another heroic rally, and so on. The true capitulation will come much later. Below 2015 highs, for example.

Yeah I also am of the mind that a correction in stocks is likely coming. How large of a correction, and when I'm not sure. But we are getting close to that ominous September/October timeframe and stocks are definitely sitting on shaky ground at the moment. We just lost that 2880 support level that signaled the start of the last correction back in the fall. I'm not really sure that anything other than a trade war deal that eliminates all tariffs, and another rate cut in September (with dovish forward guidance) could save this market. And I think the odds of both are slim. I also have doubts that a 25bp cut would be enough to really bull up the market. I think we would need at least another 50bp taken off to really wake up the animal spirits enough to really drive the market significantly higher. Otherwise, I think we are bound to either correct in the near future, or stagnate and chop sideways for a long while before eventually resolving one way or the other. That's my prognostication at least. I'm a big fan of gold and bonds in the short term.

pmward wrote: ↑Mon Aug 05, 2019 10:03 am ... or stagnate and chop sideways for a long while before eventually resolving one way or the other. That's my prognostication at least. I'm a big fan of gold and bonds in the short term.

So here's something that will scare lots of people on this board, but who knows?

1. cash at 0%
2. gold chops around here
3. even while cash at 0%, long bond rates go up... steepening the yield curve
4. stocks stagnate and chop sideways

I wonder what China is going to do about Hong Kong and how that will affect gold.

dualstow wrote: ↑Mon Aug 05, 2019 11:15 am I wonder what China is going to do about Hong Kong and how that will affect gold.

If they do a 1989-style Tienanmen suppression, who knows?

ochotona wrote: ↑Mon Aug 05, 2019 12:55 pm

dualstow wrote: ↑Mon Aug 05, 2019 11:15 am I wonder what China is going to do about Hong Kong and how that will affect gold.

If they do a 1989-style Tienanmen suppression, who knows?

God, I hope that can't still happen 30 years later. I know it can, but jeez. That's a yeah, great, I own gold scenario, but what good is it if the world goes to shit.

And for posterity's sake, when some poster a few months or years from now posts here saying how much gold sucks, why should I own it:

Don't know about you guys but my PP even to slightly up today. Again, I wish I found this allocation 30 years ago.