Gyroscopic Investing

pmward wrote: ↑Mon May 13, 2019 9:14 am Guys, it's one day of a one week pull back. Your expectations are ridiculous. Gold is not going to go up every day or week that stocks are down. They are UNcorrelated not negatively correlated. I think the root of the frustrations with gold on this board are that people have unrealistic expectations of it.

^^^+1^^^

Ad Orientem wrote: ↑Mon May 13, 2019 9:37 am

pmward wrote: ↑Mon May 13, 2019 9:14 am Guys, it's one day of a one week pull back. Your expectations are ridiculous. Gold is not going to go up every day or week that stocks are down. They are UNcorrelated not negatively correlated. I think the root of the frustrations with gold on this board are that people have unrealistic expectations of it.

^^^+1^^^

Pass the Kool-Aid please.

Don wrote: ↑Fri May 17, 2019 2:15 pm

Ad Orientem wrote: ↑Mon May 13, 2019 9:37 am

pmward wrote: ↑Mon May 13, 2019 9:14 am Guys, it's one day of a one week pull back. Your expectations are ridiculous. Gold is not going to go up every day or week that stocks are down. They are UNcorrelated not negatively correlated. I think the root of the frustrations with gold on this board are that people have unrealistic expectations of it.

^^^+1^^^

Pass the Kool-Aid please.

It's all kool-aid.

You believe the market will go up forever
or are always waiting for it to drop
or that the debt will destroy the dollar
or you believe technical indicators
or fundamentals
or are a gold bug
or only do CDs and money markets
or stash cash under your mattress.
.....

Gotta believe in something. We believe a little in everything.

I believe in having some of everything, but don't put all of my trust in any one thing.

jhogue wrote: ↑Fri May 17, 2019 4:40 pm I believe in having some of everything, but don't put all of my trust in any one thing.

Yes.

TLT is leading the pack in one year returns.

Ditto

It looks like bonds have been at the top for a lot of the past year.

And to boot that is a Yahoo Finance graph which does not include yields, only change in the ETF value. So bonds are in actuality up even more. Bonds have a lot of momentum right now.

MangoMan wrote: ↑Fri May 17, 2019 8:25 pm

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Fri May 17, 2019 6:53 pm TLT is leading the pack in one year returns.

I don't pay close attention, so I am shocked to hear that. I would have guessed stocks.

(kriegsspiel) Ditto.

Thirded!

Well I guess the one good part of this trade mess is that gold is catching a bid. Gold broke above the downward sloping channel line, as well as it's 50 day moving average, and just set a higher high (in conjunction with a higher low). It's now above all short and long term averages as well, and momentum just turned positive and is picking up steam. In my book that fits all the criteria I use for an uptrend.

pmward, do you still see gold getting bid? We've done this $1200 something to $1350 something dance now it seems for years.

I know I am not really supposed to care, but if budd and mathjak are lurking, wonder what their thoughts are on the current 1 year comparison. There are few people who would have called what's going on with TLT.

Boom! In the last 3 trading days alone we've officially engulfed the entire last 9 weeks of trading. It looks to me that the market wants to retest that strong ~1350-1375 resistance level. We've got a lot of short term momentum starting to brew (momentum on the daily chart has started to spike up in the positive the last few days, on a weekly chart it's just starting to turn up) so there is a chance...

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Mon Jun 03, 2019 1:02 pm pmward, do you still see gold getting bid? We've done this $1200 something to $1350 something dance now it seems for years.

I know I am not really supposed to care, but if budd and mathjak are lurking, wonder what their thoughts are on the current 1 year comparison. There are few people who would have called what's going on with TLT.

Lol, looks like we cross posted. See above. But yeah, I think we have a chance of breaking out from that stubborn 1350-1375 supply zone. I'm not going to get too excited until we break above that. But with an 8 year consolidation at that level, I think that we could get a very strong break out if we can get above and stay above that level. I pretty much view that 1350-1375 range as *the* line in the sand, where when we break above it and hold above it I think we will officially start the next cyclical bull market in gold. We will get a short squeeze when we break those levels, and I believe that will be enough to get the longs excited, and the longs are what will sustain the next bull cycle. We just need to get above that level and not prairie dog it and good things will happen.

I'm also still bullish on bonds, but I do think that the market has gotten ahead of itself and that we have a pullback, chop, or some form of consolidation coming in the near term. The long bond trade has been a bit too easy lately. Bonds don't tend to just shoot straight up like a rocket ship like this.

So, what is going on here? I'm good with it, but this head fake has happened so many times before...

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Wed Jun 05, 2019 7:43 am So, what is going on here? I'm good with it, but this head fake has happened so many times before...

Fed is hinting at easing and the DXY is dropping. The sellers have indeed been ruthless at the $1350-1375 range. So I expect them to come out again as that short sell has been easy money for 8 years straight now. But if the market keeps faltering the bulls could overpower the bears, and cause a short squeeze that finally breaks that strong resistance level. We will have to see. It really just depends on who has the most steam, the bulls or bears. I will say that momentum is very strong right now, so that at least gives a small edge to the bulls. But that momentum could also fade as we get into testing that supply range.

And that lasted about 3 hours...

Gold is up over 4% in the last 5 trading sessions. I wouldn't complain too much that we are only up about ten bp today.

I'm going to channel budd here -- were were up $19 earlier, and it totally turned around and lost it all quickly.

I guess is it concurrent with the dollar doing the exact opposite, but still feels ominous, yet again.

Not a time to buy

How is contemplating a rate cut even possible in this screwed up world?

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Wed Jun 05, 2019 11:40 am I'm going to channel budd here -- were were up $19 earlier, and it totally turned around and lost it all quickly.

I guess is it concurrent with the dollar doing the exact opposite, but still feels ominous, yet again.

Have patience, it's a couple hours of one day. We are still positive on the day, and it's shot up like a rocket over the last 5 sessions. A day of consolidation and a bit of selling is to be expected, and probably even healthy. It's not going to go up in a straight line, and if that's your expectation then you will always be disappointed. I personally see nothing to complain about with a 4%+ gain in one week and bullish signals being thrown left and right. Gold is still above the light resistance/support level it broke above yesterday. It's quite common to retest support before moving higher after breaking above a resistance level. It's above it's 50 day, 200 day, 20 day, and 8 day moving averages. It has set a series of two higher lows and higher highs on both the daily and weekly chart. Momentum is positive and increasing. Macd just had a bullish cross today. 50 day moving average is above the 200 day moving average. 8 day moving average is above the 20 day moving average (and bullishly spreading). There is not a single bearish signal right now aside from a morning reversal (which is probably due more to the positive stock reversal leading to risk on from some more dovish Fed comments that came out than anything). Have patience. A couple hours is not enough data to pass judgements on.

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Wed Jun 05, 2019 11:56 am How is contemplating a rate cut even possible in this screwed up world?

It is simple. Someone is lying. But with PP we should not care. Maybe :-)

pmward wrote: ↑Wed Jun 05, 2019 12:01 pm

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Wed Jun 05, 2019 11:40 am I'm going to channel budd here -- were were up $19 earlier, and it totally turned around and lost it all quickly.

I guess is it concurrent with the dollar doing the exact opposite, but still feels ominous, yet again.

Have patience, it's a couple hours of one day. We are still positive on the day, and it's shot up like a rocket over the last 5 sessions. A day of consolidation and a bit of selling is to be expected, and probably even healthy. It's not going to go up in a straight line, and if that's your expectation then you will always be disappointed. I personally see nothing to complain about with a 4%+ gain in one week and bullish signals being thrown left and right. Gold is still above the light resistance/support level it broke above yesterday. It's quite common to retest support before moving higher after breaking above a resistance level. It's above it's 50 day, 200 day, 20 day, and 8 day moving averages. It has set a series of two higher lows and higher highs on both the daily and weekly chart. Momentum is positive and increasing. Macd just had a bullish cross today. 50 day moving average is above the 200 day moving average. 8 day moving average is above the 20 day moving average (and bullishly spreading). There is not a single bearish signal right now aside from a morning reversal (which is probably due more to the positive stock reversal leading to risk on from some more dovish Fed comments that came out than anything). Have patience. A couple hours is not enough data to pass judgements on.

I know. Except... it's not a couple hours. It's been years. My average price in my gold holdings is $1349. Started buying in 2008. Beating my chest in 2011. Been 8 years of false hope since. Gold's resistance happens to match my average.

In the PP for 5 years, I have only been able to very minimally sell down gold in early 2019 to buy other assets for rebalancing.

But I care less and less.

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Wed Jun 05, 2019 1:16 pm
I know. Except... it's not a couple hours. It's been years. My average price in my gold holdings is $1349. Started buying in 2008. Beating my chest in 2011. Been 8 years of false hope since. Gold's resistance happens to match my average.

In the PP for 5 years, I have only been able to very minimally sell down gold in early 2019 to buy other assets for rebalancing.

But I care less and less.

Assets go on multi year, sometimes multi decade, cyclical trends. You bought at the tail end of the last cyclical uptrend in gold. That sucks, and I feel for you. But, you are already lumped in and you're doing the right thing by being patient and waiting to rebalance. Gold will break out eventually. When it does, it will likely go on one of the multi year bull market uptrends that it's known for. When that time comes you'll be able to rebalance and take profits. On the long term trend, it's been consolidating in a bullish wedge formation since 2013 and that wedge does not come to a point until around the 2022-2023 time frame. So, in all reality, it could continue to keep consolidating for quite a few years. But eventually it will break, and the longer the consolidation the stronger the break. So, both the short term, and the long term look bullish. I personally am about as bullish gold as I can get. I think that in 2029 when we look back we will see that gold was the asset of the decade vs stocks and bonds (I'm curious to see what crypto does as well). We may not break out this time, the sellers may win again. We will have to see. I think a lot is resting on both stocks and the Fed. If stocks sell and the Fed lowers rates (bringing the dollar down) then that should be enough. Hell, even just the Fed cutting the predicted 50bp and stopping QT might even be enough in itself to do it regardless of what the stock market does.

Either way, all signs are positive in the gold market right now. So this should not be a day to be upset.

DXY and gold rallying hard today. Interesting...

Yes. Good to see. PP at high for year for me, up 7.93% No complaints, does its thing on autopilot.