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Re: The GOLD scream room

Posted: Fri May 10, 2019 3:28 pm
by pmward
Don wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 3:18 pm
pmward wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 12:37 pm
Don wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 12:05 pm

Wait until you get their huge capital gains distributions in December!
Good job ignoring the argument I presented and picking and choosing a couple small points that you want to try to argue with. Where I come from, they call that trolling.
I don't argue with idiots. You're blocked forever.
Let the record show that Don makes no attempt to even consider or refute a logical argument that is presented to refute his claims, he is simply here to troll the forum, try to annoy the members of the forum, and bash the PP for no logical reason. When presented with a logical argument that refutes his claims he completely ignores it and then blocks the person presenting it.

Re: The GOLD scream room

Posted: Fri May 10, 2019 7:25 pm
by ochotona
pmward wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 3:28 pm
Don wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 3:18 pm
pmward wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 12:37 pm


Good job ignoring the argument I presented and picking and choosing a couple small points that you want to try to argue with. Where I come from, they call that trolling.
I don't argue with idiots. You're blocked forever.
Let the record show that Don makes no attempt to even consider or refute a logical argument that is presented to refute his claims, he is simply here to troll the forum, try to annoy the members of the forum, and bash the PP for no logical reason. When presented with a logical argument that refutes his claims he completely ignores it and then blocks the person presenting it.
Such a person will always call any investment strategy other than what has been winning lately an idiot, it's not just limited to anti-PP. It's anti-anything-but-US-Equities. In 1980 it was if-you're-not-in-gold-you're-an-idiot. In 2007, if-you're-not-in-EM-you're-an-idiot. In a few years it will be something else. At the next bottom it may be if-you're-not-in-PP-you're-an-idiot.

Re: The GOLD scream room

Posted: Fri May 10, 2019 7:44 pm
by pmward
ochotona wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 7:25 pm
pmward wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 3:28 pm
Don wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 3:18 pm

I don't argue with idiots. You're blocked forever.
Let the record show that Don makes no attempt to even consider or refute a logical argument that is presented to refute his claims, he is simply here to troll the forum, try to annoy the members of the forum, and bash the PP for no logical reason. When presented with a logical argument that refutes his claims he completely ignores it and then blocks the person presenting it.
Such a person will always call any investment strategy other than what has been winning lately an idiot, it's not just limited to anti-PP. It's anti-anything-but-US-Equities. In 1980 it was if-you're-not-in-gold-you're-an-idiot. In 2007, if-you're-not-in-EM-you're-an-idiot. In a few years it will be something else. At the next bottom it may be if-you're-not-in-PP-you're-an-idiot.
Yeah. I mean, I'm not going to claim the PP is for everyone. There's reason why it is not a popular investing style, and never will be (aside from those moments like you mention of extreme capitulation... which is the worst time to swap to a PP, imo). I don't see the point though in someone coming to a forum about the PP and subjectively bashing it and then refusing to discuss the subject when someone refutes them. If someone has legitimate complaints about the PP I seriously want to have a discussion with them. But it seems we just get people that want to throw the baby out with the bathwater and make sweeping blanket judgements simply because the 3-5% consistent real compounded return is not good enough for them. Saying subjective prodding lines like "the PP is garbage" or "Some of you will say anything to defend the PP, even if it's totally illogical" without presenting any context, data, or logic behind the claim is silly. Only forum trolls behave that way. We got rid of one troll, and the discussions lately on this forum have been super constructive since then... until troll #2 jumped in today right where the first one left off, haha.

Re: The GOLD scream room

Posted: Sat May 11, 2019 12:05 pm
by Kbg
A lot of blocking forever going on lately on this board. I felt pretty cool earlier this week when I got blocked by someone for the first time ever. I don't think I'm the trolly type, but I will layout what I hope is a factual well reasoned counterpoint if I think someone is just wrong on something. It seems gold has an almost religious aspect to it. Kinda weird I think. I'm not anti or pro gold, for me it's a financial asset with known characteristics. Historically, we know the following:

1. It used to be money. It no longer is money. Who know's if it will ever be money again.
2. It has no productive value in the economic sense of "productive" other than for ornamental jewelry and specialized coatings.
3. It has weak correlation to most other financial assets and has demonstrated an ability to be a good diversifier at somewhere in the 10-25% range.
4. Most serious studies have shown that it is a hard asset to nail down what it drives or is driven by or reacts to consistently and most of what we think it does actually does not.

Re: The GOLD scream room

Posted: Sat May 11, 2019 12:26 pm
by pmward
Kbg wrote:
Sat May 11, 2019 12:05 pm
A lot of blocking forever going on lately on this board. I felt pretty cool earlier this week when I got blocked by someone for the first time ever. I don't think I'm the trolly type, but I will layout what I hope is a factual well reasoned counterpoint if I think someone is just wrong on something. It seems gold has an almost religious aspect to it. Kinda weird I think. I'm not anti or pro gold, for me it's a financial asset with known characteristics. Historically, we know the following:

1. It used to be money. It no longer is money. Who know's if it will ever be money again.
2. It has no productive value in the economic sense of "productive" other than for ornamental jewelry and specialized coatings.
3. It has weak correlation to most other financial assets and has demonstrated an ability to be a good diversifier at somewhere in the 10-25% range.
4. Most serious studies have shown that it is a hard asset to nail down what it drives or is driven by or reacts to consistently and most of what we think it does actually does not.
I don't think I've ever seen you do anything I would consider trolling. When you present an opinion it's always well thought out, objective, and you provide actual data or sources where applicable. That's good discussion in my opinion. This is what I wish the anti-PP'ers around here would do, bring some actual data, facts, and logical well thought out arguments to the table. Then we can have a constructive discussion. Just simply saying "x is bad, y is good" by projecting the current market environment infinitely into the future doesn't provide any real substance and serves to do nothing but annoy.

Aside from that I generally agree with all you say here about gold. I think it's greatest fundamental strength is that it is uncorrelated to pretty much everything and anything; it just marches to the beat of its own drum most of the time. It also tends to go up in those SHTF type moments. There is always money looking for a home in any market environment, which is why there always will be at least one asset class going up. When stocks and/or bonds are doing bad money always tends to find its way into gold. That is where gold pays its rent in a portfolio.

Re: The GOLD scream room

Posted: Sat May 11, 2019 1:52 pm
by ochotona
Kbg wrote:
Sat May 11, 2019 12:05 pm
A lot of blocking forever going on lately on this board. I felt pretty cool earlier this week when I got blocked by someone for the first time ever. I don't think I'm the trolly type, but I will layout what I hope is a factual well reasoned counterpoint if I think someone is just wrong on something. It seems gold has an almost religious aspect to it. Kinda weird I think. I'm not anti or pro gold, for me it's a financial asset with known characteristics. Historically, we know the following:

1. It used to be money. It no longer is money. Who know's if it will ever be money again.
2. It has no productive value in the economic sense of "productive" other than for ornamental jewelry and specialized coatings.
3. It has weak correlation to most other financial assets and has demonstrated an ability to be a good diversifier at somewhere in the 10-25% range.
4. Most serious studies have shown that it is a hard asset to nail down what it drives or is driven by or reacts to consistently and most of what we think it does actually does not.
Points 1. and 2.inform my decision to pursue a 10% allocation, not 25%. Because if there is a risk the money put into gold becomes dead money, I don't want to deaden 25% of my port. But if gold is going to $10,000 per ounce then 10% is probably enough.

Re: The GOLD scream room

Posted: Sat May 11, 2019 2:50 pm
by dualstow
pmward wrote:
Sat May 11, 2019 12:26 pm
Kbg wrote:
Sat May 11, 2019 12:05 pm
A lot of blocking forever going on lately on this board. I felt pretty cool earlier this week when I got blocked by someone for the first time ever. I don't think I'm the trolly type,
...


I don't think I've ever seen you do anything I would consider trolling.
But you’ve only been on the forum for five minutes. O0
I’m kidding. Kbg has always been nice.

Re: The GOLD scream room

Posted: Sat May 11, 2019 7:14 pm
by Ugly_Bird
pmward wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 7:44 pm
Only forum trolls behave that way.
Well, do not feed the trolls :-)
pmward wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 7:44 pm
We got rid of one troll, and the discussions lately on this forum have been super constructive since then... until troll #2 jumped in today right where the first one left off, haha.
This is a particular example of the fundamental conservation law.
Trolls can neither be created nor destroyed; rather, they can only be transformed or transferred from one form to another.

Re: The GOLD scream room

Posted: Sat May 11, 2019 9:23 pm
by Kbg
Ugly_Bird wrote:
Sat May 11, 2019 7:14 pm
This is a particular example of the fundamental conservation law.
Trolls can neither be created nor destroyed; rather, they can only be transformed or transferred from one form to another.
Now THIS was funny.

Re: The GOLD scream room

Posted: Mon May 13, 2019 8:33 am
by Cortopassi
Today gold is working as hoped.

Re: The GOLD scream room

Posted: Mon May 13, 2019 9:03 am
by mathjak107
well i certainly "hoped " it would have done far better then it is doing but the dollar is still in the drivers seat

Re: The GOLD scream room

Posted: Mon May 13, 2019 9:14 am
by pmward
Guys, it's one day of a one week pull back. Your expectations are ridiculous. Gold is not going to go up every day or week that stocks are down. They are UNcorrelated not negatively correlated. I think the root of the frustrations with gold on this board are that people have unrealistic expectations of it.

Re: The GOLD scream room

Posted: Mon May 13, 2019 9:37 am
by Ad Orientem
pmward wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 9:14 am
Guys, it's one day of a one week pull back. Your expectations are ridiculous. Gold is not going to go up every day or week that stocks are down. They are UNcorrelated not negatively correlated. I think the root of the frustrations with gold on this board are that people have unrealistic expectations of it.

^^^+1^^^

Re: The GOLD scream room

Posted: Fri May 17, 2019 2:15 pm
by Don
Ad Orientem wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 9:37 am
pmward wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 9:14 am
Guys, it's one day of a one week pull back. Your expectations are ridiculous. Gold is not going to go up every day or week that stocks are down. They are UNcorrelated not negatively correlated. I think the root of the frustrations with gold on this board are that people have unrealistic expectations of it.

^^^+1^^^
Pass the Kool-Aid please.

Re: The GOLD scream room

Posted: Fri May 17, 2019 3:30 pm
by Cortopassi
Don wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 2:15 pm
Ad Orientem wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 9:37 am
pmward wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 9:14 am
Guys, it's one day of a one week pull back. Your expectations are ridiculous. Gold is not going to go up every day or week that stocks are down. They are UNcorrelated not negatively correlated. I think the root of the frustrations with gold on this board are that people have unrealistic expectations of it.

^^^+1^^^
Pass the Kool-Aid please.
It's all kool-aid.

You believe the market will go up forever
or are always waiting for it to drop
or that the debt will destroy the dollar
or you believe technical indicators
or fundamentals
or are a gold bug
or only do CDs and money markets
or stash cash under your mattress.
.....

Gotta believe in something. We believe a little in everything.

Re: The GOLD scream room

Posted: Fri May 17, 2019 4:40 pm
by jhogue
I believe in having some of everything, but don't put all of my trust in any one thing.

Re: The GOLD scream room

Posted: Fri May 17, 2019 6:53 pm
by Cortopassi
jhogue wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 4:40 pm
I believe in having some of everything, but don't put all of my trust in any one thing.
Yes.

TLT is leading the pack in one year returns.

Image

Re: The GOLD scream room

Posted: Fri May 17, 2019 9:47 pm
by Kriegsspiel
Ditto

It looks like bonds have been at the top for a lot of the past year.

Re: The GOLD scream room

Posted: Sat May 18, 2019 9:11 am
by pmward
And to boot that is a Yahoo Finance graph which does not include yields, only change in the ETF value. So bonds are in actuality up even more. Bonds have a lot of momentum right now.

Re: The GOLD scream room

Posted: Sat May 18, 2019 12:25 pm
by dualstow
MangoMan wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 8:25 pm
Cortopassi wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 6:53 pm
TLT is leading the pack in one year returns.
I don't pay close attention, so I am shocked to hear that. I would have guessed stocks.
(kriegsspiel) Ditto.
Thirded!

Re: The GOLD scream room

Posted: Fri May 31, 2019 9:39 am
by pmward
Well I guess the one good part of this trade mess is that gold is catching a bid. Gold broke above the downward sloping channel line, as well as it's 50 day moving average, and just set a higher high (in conjunction with a higher low). It's now above all short and long term averages as well, and momentum just turned positive and is picking up steam. In my book that fits all the criteria I use for an uptrend.

Re: The GOLD scream room

Posted: Mon Jun 03, 2019 1:02 pm
by Cortopassi
pmward, do you still see gold getting bid? We've done this $1200 something to $1350 something dance now it seems for years.

I know I am not really supposed to care, but if budd and mathjak are lurking, wonder what their thoughts are on the current 1 year comparison. There are few people who would have called what's going on with TLT.

Image

Re: The GOLD scream room

Posted: Mon Jun 03, 2019 1:02 pm
by pmward
Boom! In the last 3 trading days alone we've officially engulfed the entire last 9 weeks of trading. It looks to me that the market wants to retest that strong ~1350-1375 resistance level. We've got a lot of short term momentum starting to brew (momentum on the daily chart has started to spike up in the positive the last few days, on a weekly chart it's just starting to turn up) so there is a chance...

Re: The GOLD scream room

Posted: Mon Jun 03, 2019 1:06 pm
by pmward
Cortopassi wrote:
Mon Jun 03, 2019 1:02 pm
pmward, do you still see gold getting bid? We've done this $1200 something to $1350 something dance now it seems for years.

I know I am not really supposed to care, but if budd and mathjak are lurking, wonder what their thoughts are on the current 1 year comparison. There are few people who would have called what's going on with TLT.

Image
Lol, looks like we cross posted. See above. But yeah, I think we have a chance of breaking out from that stubborn 1350-1375 supply zone. I'm not going to get too excited until we break above that. But with an 8 year consolidation at that level, I think that we could get a very strong break out if we can get above and stay above that level. I pretty much view that 1350-1375 range as *the* line in the sand, where when we break above it and hold above it I think we will officially start the next cyclical bull market in gold. We will get a short squeeze when we break those levels, and I believe that will be enough to get the longs excited, and the longs are what will sustain the next bull cycle. We just need to get above that level and not prairie dog it and good things will happen.

I'm also still bullish on bonds, but I do think that the market has gotten ahead of itself and that we have a pullback, chop, or some form of consolidation coming in the near term. The long bond trade has been a bit too easy lately. Bonds don't tend to just shoot straight up like a rocket ship like this.

Re: The GOLD scream room

Posted: Wed Jun 05, 2019 7:43 am
by Cortopassi
So, what is going on here? I'm good with it, but this head fake has happened so many times before...