The GOLD scream room
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- mathjak107
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Re: The GOLD scream room
gold is the dollars competitor .as long as the dollar is strong there is no reason gold should be in demand because of these events ....
Re: The GOLD scream room
This is how uncorrelated assets work.
Re: The GOLD scream room
- Cortopassi
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Re: The GOLD scream room
They aren't inversely correlated. If they were they would perpetually cancel each other out. Just uncorrelated.
Bonds were up today.
But I agree that gold is one of the more frustrating assets to hold. And also the one that makes me feel most secure, strangely. I've also learned years ago that while gold is sometimes a barometer of world events, it never seems to last more than a day or two. Look at the graphs when Brexit was being voted and when Trump was elected. You'd think it was the end of the world. Until the next day...
My PP is up 6.32% YTD. No complaints.
- mathjak107
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Re: The GOLD scream room
which is why i basically trade gold and not wait when it sees a pop. i have one third of my gold position left at this point , about 4% of assets ... i sell a little each day we are up ..
- dualstow
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Re: The GOLD scream room
Yup. Even PRPFX is doing well, if Yahoo is accurate.Cortopassi wrote: ↑Thu May 09, 2019 8:25 pm And (gold is)also the (asset) that makes me feel most secure, strangely.
...
My PP is up 6.32% YTD. No complaints.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PRPFX?p ... c=fin-srch
Re: The GOLD scream room
Sorry, but that's not an exclusive feature of the PP, that's Modern Portfolio Theory in a nutshell. Are you saying you disagree with all the research and Nobel prizes that have been awarded for the various aspects of MPT?
Also, speaking to the PP specifically, it does exactly what it promises consistently. On any country and any time frame I have looked at (including Japan) the PP over the long run always hits a trusty 3-5% real CAGR with low volatility. If 3-5% real return with low volatility is your goal, then perfect. If that is not enough return to satisfy your greed, then you will need to concentrate to some degree and accept more risk and volatility. I don't see why this is a point of contention? It's common sense. If anyone bought into a PP then it's their own damn fault if 3-5% real is not enough to satisfy their desires. Nobody has ever claimed the PP would do more than this in real compounded terms. It's what it historically has always done and continues to do to this day. There is no problem with the portfolio, there can however be a problem with the individual if they go into the PP with unrealistic expectations or as a way to make a market timing bet that doesn't play out.
Re: The GOLD scream room
Wait until you get their huge capital gains distributions in December!dualstow wrote: ↑Fri May 10, 2019 7:49 amYup. Even PRPFX is doing well, if Yahoo is accurate.Cortopassi wrote: ↑Thu May 09, 2019 8:25 pm And (gold is)also the (asset) that makes me feel most secure, strangely.
...
My PP is up 6.32% YTD. No complaints.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PRPFX?p ... c=fin-srch
Re: The GOLD scream room
Good job ignoring the argument I presented and picking and choosing a couple small points that you want to try to argue with. Where I come from, they call that trolling.Don wrote: ↑Fri May 10, 2019 12:05 pmWait until you get their huge capital gains distributions in December!dualstow wrote: ↑Fri May 10, 2019 7:49 amYup. Even PRPFX is doing well, if Yahoo is accurate.Cortopassi wrote: ↑Thu May 09, 2019 8:25 pm And (gold is)also the (asset) that makes me feel most secure, strangely.
...
My PP is up 6.32% YTD. No complaints.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PRPFX?p ... c=fin-srch
- dualstow
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Re: The GOLD scream room
I don't own them anymore, but yes, good point. I'd forgotten about those distributions!Don wrote: ↑Fri May 10, 2019 12:05 pmWait until you get their huge capital gains distributions in December!dualstow wrote: ↑Fri May 10, 2019 7:49 am Yup. Even PRPFX is doing well, if Yahoo is accurate.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PRPFX?p ... c=fin-srch
I owned them for a while almost ten years ago, because it seemed like the most comfortable way for me to hold gold. Nice and abstracted. The ER bugged me, though, and after I started getting the other components together on my own, I took the plunge, bought some gold, and gave PRPFX the boot.
I think it could still be a nice vehicle for many investors. I just don't like the ER.
Re: The GOLD scream room
I don't argue with idiots. You're blocked forever.pmward wrote: ↑Fri May 10, 2019 12:37 pmGood job ignoring the argument I presented and picking and choosing a couple small points that you want to try to argue with. Where I come from, they call that trolling.Don wrote: ↑Fri May 10, 2019 12:05 pmWait until you get their huge capital gains distributions in December!dualstow wrote: ↑Fri May 10, 2019 7:49 am
Yup. Even PRPFX is doing well, if Yahoo is accurate.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PRPFX?p ... c=fin-srch
Re: The GOLD scream room
Let the record show that Don makes no attempt to even consider or refute a logical argument that is presented to refute his claims, he is simply here to troll the forum, try to annoy the members of the forum, and bash the PP for no logical reason. When presented with a logical argument that refutes his claims he completely ignores it and then blocks the person presenting it.
Re: The GOLD scream room
Such a person will always call any investment strategy other than what has been winning lately an idiot, it's not just limited to anti-PP. It's anti-anything-but-US-Equities. In 1980 it was if-you're-not-in-gold-you're-an-idiot. In 2007, if-you're-not-in-EM-you're-an-idiot. In a few years it will be something else. At the next bottom it may be if-you're-not-in-PP-you're-an-idiot.pmward wrote: ↑Fri May 10, 2019 3:28 pmLet the record show that Don makes no attempt to even consider or refute a logical argument that is presented to refute his claims, he is simply here to troll the forum, try to annoy the members of the forum, and bash the PP for no logical reason. When presented with a logical argument that refutes his claims he completely ignores it and then blocks the person presenting it.
Re: The GOLD scream room
Yeah. I mean, I'm not going to claim the PP is for everyone. There's reason why it is not a popular investing style, and never will be (aside from those moments like you mention of extreme capitulation... which is the worst time to swap to a PP, imo). I don't see the point though in someone coming to a forum about the PP and subjectively bashing it and then refusing to discuss the subject when someone refutes them. If someone has legitimate complaints about the PP I seriously want to have a discussion with them. But it seems we just get people that want to throw the baby out with the bathwater and make sweeping blanket judgements simply because the 3-5% consistent real compounded return is not good enough for them. Saying subjective prodding lines like "the PP is garbage" or "Some of you will say anything to defend the PP, even if it's totally illogical" without presenting any context, data, or logic behind the claim is silly. Only forum trolls behave that way. We got rid of one troll, and the discussions lately on this forum have been super constructive since then... until troll #2 jumped in today right where the first one left off, haha.ochotona wrote: ↑Fri May 10, 2019 7:25 pmSuch a person will always call any investment strategy other than what has been winning lately an idiot, it's not just limited to anti-PP. It's anti-anything-but-US-Equities. In 1980 it was if-you're-not-in-gold-you're-an-idiot. In 2007, if-you're-not-in-EM-you're-an-idiot. In a few years it will be something else. At the next bottom it may be if-you're-not-in-PP-you're-an-idiot.pmward wrote: ↑Fri May 10, 2019 3:28 pmLet the record show that Don makes no attempt to even consider or refute a logical argument that is presented to refute his claims, he is simply here to troll the forum, try to annoy the members of the forum, and bash the PP for no logical reason. When presented with a logical argument that refutes his claims he completely ignores it and then blocks the person presenting it.
Re: The GOLD scream room
A lot of blocking forever going on lately on this board. I felt pretty cool earlier this week when I got blocked by someone for the first time ever. I don't think I'm the trolly type, but I will layout what I hope is a factual well reasoned counterpoint if I think someone is just wrong on something. It seems gold has an almost religious aspect to it. Kinda weird I think. I'm not anti or pro gold, for me it's a financial asset with known characteristics. Historically, we know the following:
1. It used to be money. It no longer is money. Who know's if it will ever be money again.
2. It has no productive value in the economic sense of "productive" other than for ornamental jewelry and specialized coatings.
3. It has weak correlation to most other financial assets and has demonstrated an ability to be a good diversifier at somewhere in the 10-25% range.
4. Most serious studies have shown that it is a hard asset to nail down what it drives or is driven by or reacts to consistently and most of what we think it does actually does not.
1. It used to be money. It no longer is money. Who know's if it will ever be money again.
2. It has no productive value in the economic sense of "productive" other than for ornamental jewelry and specialized coatings.
3. It has weak correlation to most other financial assets and has demonstrated an ability to be a good diversifier at somewhere in the 10-25% range.
4. Most serious studies have shown that it is a hard asset to nail down what it drives or is driven by or reacts to consistently and most of what we think it does actually does not.
Re: The GOLD scream room
I don't think I've ever seen you do anything I would consider trolling. When you present an opinion it's always well thought out, objective, and you provide actual data or sources where applicable. That's good discussion in my opinion. This is what I wish the anti-PP'ers around here would do, bring some actual data, facts, and logical well thought out arguments to the table. Then we can have a constructive discussion. Just simply saying "x is bad, y is good" by projecting the current market environment infinitely into the future doesn't provide any real substance and serves to do nothing but annoy.Kbg wrote: ↑Sat May 11, 2019 12:05 pm A lot of blocking forever going on lately on this board. I felt pretty cool earlier this week when I got blocked by someone for the first time ever. I don't think I'm the trolly type, but I will layout what I hope is a factual well reasoned counterpoint if I think someone is just wrong on something. It seems gold has an almost religious aspect to it. Kinda weird I think. I'm not anti or pro gold, for me it's a financial asset with known characteristics. Historically, we know the following:
1. It used to be money. It no longer is money. Who know's if it will ever be money again.
2. It has no productive value in the economic sense of "productive" other than for ornamental jewelry and specialized coatings.
3. It has weak correlation to most other financial assets and has demonstrated an ability to be a good diversifier at somewhere in the 10-25% range.
4. Most serious studies have shown that it is a hard asset to nail down what it drives or is driven by or reacts to consistently and most of what we think it does actually does not.
Aside from that I generally agree with all you say here about gold. I think it's greatest fundamental strength is that it is uncorrelated to pretty much everything and anything; it just marches to the beat of its own drum most of the time. It also tends to go up in those SHTF type moments. There is always money looking for a home in any market environment, which is why there always will be at least one asset class going up. When stocks and/or bonds are doing bad money always tends to find its way into gold. That is where gold pays its rent in a portfolio.
Re: The GOLD scream room
Points 1. and 2.inform my decision to pursue a 10% allocation, not 25%. Because if there is a risk the money put into gold becomes dead money, I don't want to deaden 25% of my port. But if gold is going to $10,000 per ounce then 10% is probably enough.Kbg wrote: ↑Sat May 11, 2019 12:05 pm A lot of blocking forever going on lately on this board. I felt pretty cool earlier this week when I got blocked by someone for the first time ever. I don't think I'm the trolly type, but I will layout what I hope is a factual well reasoned counterpoint if I think someone is just wrong on something. It seems gold has an almost religious aspect to it. Kinda weird I think. I'm not anti or pro gold, for me it's a financial asset with known characteristics. Historically, we know the following:
1. It used to be money. It no longer is money. Who know's if it will ever be money again.
2. It has no productive value in the economic sense of "productive" other than for ornamental jewelry and specialized coatings.
3. It has weak correlation to most other financial assets and has demonstrated an ability to be a good diversifier at somewhere in the 10-25% range.
4. Most serious studies have shown that it is a hard asset to nail down what it drives or is driven by or reacts to consistently and most of what we think it does actually does not.
- dualstow
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Re: The GOLD scream room
Re: The GOLD scream room
Well, do not feed the trolls :-)
This is a particular example of the fundamental conservation law.
Trolls can neither be created nor destroyed; rather, they can only be transformed or transferred from one form to another.
- Cortopassi
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Re: The GOLD scream room
Today gold is working as hoped.
- mathjak107
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Re: The GOLD scream room
well i certainly "hoped " it would have done far better then it is doing but the dollar is still in the drivers seat
Re: The GOLD scream room
Guys, it's one day of a one week pull back. Your expectations are ridiculous. Gold is not going to go up every day or week that stocks are down. They are UNcorrelated not negatively correlated. I think the root of the frustrations with gold on this board are that people have unrealistic expectations of it.
- Ad Orientem
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Re: The GOLD scream room
pmward wrote: ↑Mon May 13, 2019 9:14 am Guys, it's one day of a one week pull back. Your expectations are ridiculous. Gold is not going to go up every day or week that stocks are down. They are UNcorrelated not negatively correlated. I think the root of the frustrations with gold on this board are that people have unrealistic expectations of it.
^^^+1^^^