Gyroscopic Investing

Trade war fears again, but sigh, no love for gold with this fear.

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Mon May 06, 2019 7:44 am Trade war fears again, but sigh, no love for gold with this fear.

If it is solid and not a fluke, give it a few days... (or more?)

Maybe traders have to raise some cash by selling gold

Wow this thread has been eerily silent lately... it was almost shocking to see activity here today.

Yeah this feels like last spring/summer all over again. Trump did a weekend trade tirade on Twitter, international markets plunged, U.S. stocks opened up with a large gap down and then slowly recovered throughout the day as if to say "meh", small caps out performing large today, etc. I feel like I went back in time a year.

pmward wrote: ↑Mon May 06, 2019 1:40 pm Wow this thread has been eerily silent lately... it was almost shocking to see activity here today.

Yeah this feels like last spring/summer all over again. Trump did a weekend trade tirade on Twitter, international markets plunged, U.S. stocks opened up with a large gap down and then slowly recovered throughout the day as if to say "meh", small caps out performing large today, etc. I feel like I went back in time a year.

Since Budd, er, left.

As it should be. Once you're allocated, it's like watching paint dry.

ochotona wrote: ↑Mon May 06, 2019 8:14 am Maybe traders have to raise some cash by selling gold

I just sold some gold, but not because of trading.

It was to pay for this:

It's supposed to be here tomorrow. So this is like Christmas Eve!

Selling gold to buy the best bitcoin mining rig money can buy. Nice.

(In all seriousness, I'm very jealous)

Tyler wrote: ↑Mon May 06, 2019 9:28 pm Selling gold to buy the best bitcoin mining rig money can buy. Nice.

(In all seriousness, I'm very jealous)

Thanks!

Actually it wouldn't be very good for bitcoin mining, as it doesn't have top-end graphics cards.

What it is good for is developing and testing my new key-value store, which is aimed at accelerating big data applications, maybe by a factor of 100.

That's because of the Optane DC Persistent Memory modules. That technology is the first new memory technology since the invention of DRAM almost 50 years ago, and it's also the first new storage technology since flash in the 1970's.

How cool is that?

Markets are down greatly in the past few days. A trade deal with China is in jeopardy. N Korea launched 2 missiles today. We're sending B52s and a carrier fleet towards Iran. And yet, gold is only up a fraction. What's up with this?

Don wrote: ↑Thu May 09, 2019 10:52 am Markets are down greatly in the past few days. A trade deal with China is in jeopardy. N Korea launched 2 missiles today. We're sending B52s and a carrier fleet towards Iran. And yet, gold is only up a fraction. What's up with this?

It's better than being down, right?

It takes more than a couple days to make a trend. One weeks behavior is meaningless; it's nothing but pure noise. Gold is in a secondary downtrend of a primary uptrend that started back in August, that is inside of a bullish wedge consolidation (a long series of higher lows and flat highs) that started back in 2013. In layman's terms gold is fine technically, and sooner or later it will break out, and when that happens with that long of a consolidation it will likely break out violently to the upside. Have some patients, all will be just fine in the end.

Don wrote: ↑Thu May 09, 2019 10:52 am Markets are down greatly in the past few days. A trade deal with China is in jeopardy. N Korea launched 2 missiles today. We're sending B52s and a carrier fleet towards Iran. And yet, gold is only up a fraction. What's up with this?

You’ve been sold a promise that isn’t accurate?

Why should gold intrinsically outperform during times of geopolitical risk?

Charlie Munger/Carl Jacobi: Invert, always invert.

gold is the dollars competitor .as long as the dollar is strong there is no reason gold should be in demand because of these events ....

Don wrote: ↑Thu May 09, 2019 10:52 am Markets are down greatly in the past few days. A trade deal with China is in jeopardy. N Korea launched 2 missiles today. We're sending B52s and a carrier fleet towards Iran. And yet, gold is only up a fraction. What's up with this?

This is how uncorrelated assets work.

Ugly_Bird wrote: ↑Thu May 09, 2019 1:49 pm

Don wrote: ↑Thu May 09, 2019 10:52 am Markets are down greatly in the past few days. A trade deal with China is in jeopardy. N Korea launched 2 missiles today. We're sending B52s and a carrier fleet towards Iran. And yet, gold is only up a fraction. What's up with this?

This is how uncorrelated assets work.

Some of you will say anything to defend the PP, even if it's totally illogical.

Don wrote: ↑Thu May 09, 2019 7:35 pm

Ugly_Bird wrote: ↑Thu May 09, 2019 1:49 pm

Don wrote: ↑Thu May 09, 2019 10:52 am Markets are down greatly in the past few days. A trade deal with China is in jeopardy. N Korea launched 2 missiles today. We're sending B52s and a carrier fleet towards Iran. And yet, gold is only up a fraction. What's up with this?

This is how uncorrelated assets work.

Some of you will say anything to defend the PP, even if it's totally illogical.

They aren't inversely correlated. If they were they would perpetually cancel each other out. Just uncorrelated.

Bonds were up today.

But I agree that gold is one of the more frustrating assets to hold. And also the one that makes me feel most secure, strangely. I've also learned years ago that while gold is sometimes a barometer of world events, it never seems to last more than a day or two. Look at the graphs when Brexit was being voted and when Trump was elected. You'd think it was the end of the world. Until the next day...

My PP is up 6.32% YTD. No complaints.

which is why i basically trade gold and not wait when it sees a pop. i have one third of my gold position left at this point , about 4% of assets ... i sell a little each day we are up ..

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Thu May 09, 2019 8:25 pm And (gold is)also the (asset) that makes me feel most secure, strangely.
...
My PP is up 6.32% YTD. No complaints.

Yup. Even PRPFX is doing well, if Yahoo is accurate.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PRPFX?p ... c=fin-srch

Don wrote: ↑Thu May 09, 2019 7:35 pm

Ugly_Bird wrote: ↑Thu May 09, 2019 1:49 pm

Don wrote: ↑Thu May 09, 2019 10:52 am Markets are down greatly in the past few days. A trade deal with China is in jeopardy. N Korea launched 2 missiles today. We're sending B52s and a carrier fleet towards Iran. And yet, gold is only up a fraction. What's up with this?

This is how uncorrelated assets work.

Some of you will say anything to defend the PP, even if it's totally illogical.

Sorry, but that's not an exclusive feature of the PP, that's Modern Portfolio Theory in a nutshell. Are you saying you disagree with all the research and Nobel prizes that have been awarded for the various aspects of MPT?

Also, speaking to the PP specifically, it does exactly what it promises consistently. On any country and any time frame I have looked at (including Japan) the PP over the long run always hits a trusty 3-5% real CAGR with low volatility. If 3-5% real return with low volatility is your goal, then perfect. If that is not enough return to satisfy your greed, then you will need to concentrate to some degree and accept more risk and volatility. I don't see why this is a point of contention? It's common sense. If anyone bought into a PP then it's their own damn fault if 3-5% real is not enough to satisfy their desires. Nobody has ever claimed the PP would do more than this in real compounded terms. It's what it historically has always done and continues to do to this day. There is no problem with the portfolio, there can however be a problem with the individual if they go into the PP with unrealistic expectations or as a way to make a market timing bet that doesn't play out.

Don wrote: ↑Thu May 09, 2019 7:35 pm Some of you will say anything to defend the PP, even if it's totally illogical.

OK. Let it be that way... :-)

dualstow wrote: ↑Fri May 10, 2019 7:49 am

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Thu May 09, 2019 8:25 pm And (gold is)also the (asset) that makes me feel most secure, strangely.
...
My PP is up 6.32% YTD. No complaints.

Yup. Even PRPFX is doing well, if Yahoo is accurate.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PRPFX?p ... c=fin-srch

Wait until you get their huge capital gains distributions in December!

Don wrote: ↑Fri May 10, 2019 12:05 pm

dualstow wrote: ↑Fri May 10, 2019 7:49 am

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Thu May 09, 2019 8:25 pm And (gold is)also the (asset) that makes me feel most secure, strangely.
...
My PP is up 6.32% YTD. No complaints.

Yup. Even PRPFX is doing well, if Yahoo is accurate.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PRPFX?p ... c=fin-srch

Wait until you get their huge capital gains distributions in December!

Good job ignoring the argument I presented and picking and choosing a couple small points that you want to try to argue with. Where I come from, they call that trolling.

Don wrote: ↑Fri May 10, 2019 12:05 pm

dualstow wrote: ↑Fri May 10, 2019 7:49 am Yup. Even PRPFX is doing well, if Yahoo is accurate.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PRPFX?p ... c=fin-srch

Wait until you get their huge capital gains distributions in December!

I don't own them anymore, but yes, good point. I'd forgotten about those distributions!
I owned them for a while almost ten years ago, because it seemed like the most comfortable way for me to hold gold. Nice and abstracted. The ER bugged me, though, and after I started getting the other components together on my own, I took the plunge, bought some gold, and gave PRPFX the boot.

I think it could still be a nice vehicle for many investors. I just don't like the ER.

pmward wrote: ↑Fri May 10, 2019 12:37 pm

Don wrote: ↑Fri May 10, 2019 12:05 pm

dualstow wrote: ↑Fri May 10, 2019 7:49 am
Yup. Even PRPFX is doing well, if Yahoo is accurate.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PRPFX?p ... c=fin-srch

Wait until you get their huge capital gains distributions in December!

Good job ignoring the argument I presented and picking and choosing a couple small points that you want to try to argue with. Where I come from, they call that trolling.

I don't argue with idiots. You're blocked forever.

Don wrote: ↑Fri May 10, 2019 3:18 pm

pmward wrote: ↑Fri May 10, 2019 12:37 pm

Don wrote: ↑Fri May 10, 2019 12:05 pm
Wait until you get their huge capital gains distributions in December!

Good job ignoring the argument I presented and picking and choosing a couple small points that you want to try to argue with. Where I come from, they call that trolling.

I don't argue with idiots. You're blocked forever.

Let the record show that Don makes no attempt to even consider or refute a logical argument that is presented to refute his claims, he is simply here to troll the forum, try to annoy the members of the forum, and bash the PP for no logical reason. When presented with a logical argument that refutes his claims he completely ignores it and then blocks the person presenting it.