The GOLD scream room

[dualstow]

Well, the surge was fun while it lasted.

[Libertarian666]

It's still up $30 this year so far.

If it does that every year, I'll be in pretty good shape.

[dualstow]

I’ll be in good shape if PHYS goes up. It’s been sitting at a loss for most of 9 years now.

[ochotona]

I got a Google alert that "Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index HGNSI" was bullish so I sold some ETF yesterday. When it gets bearish, I buy. Love Google alerts

[dualstow]

Strong dollar. Gold’s hanging in there, though.

[dualstow]

It's a good morning to be Libertarian666.

[Libertarian666]

It's a good morning to be Libertarian666.

Thanks.

It will be an even better morning if I can get the support people at Intel to get their server set up properly so I can test my program!

[boglerdude]

Good thread on deflation. Why do the admins lock everything interesting

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewto ... ?p=4388074

[Libertarian666]

Good thread on deflation. Why do the admins lock everything interesting

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewto ... ?p=4388074

Because they are following rules that don't make any sense.
I've been temporarily banned long in the past for "political" posts that weren't political at all.
They have a very odd definition of "political".

[boglerdude]

what did you post

[dualstow]

Good thread on deflation. Why do the admins lock everything interesting

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewto ... ?p=4388074

Because they are following rules that don't make any sense.
I've been temporarily banned long in the past for "political" posts that weren't political at all.
They have a very odd definition of "political".

It is both refreshing and infuriating. Since they're not the only investing forum, I like that I can go there and just read pure investing theory. It's also nice to know I can go elsewhere for discussions of the minimum wage, thoughts on what is driving the Fed, and how we never went to the moon.

[Libertarian666]

what did you post

I don't recall exactly, probably something about the Federal Reserve.
It was a long time ago.

[Cortopassi]

And yet again, what is it 3/4 years now? Bump against ~$1350 and repelled. Getting old.

[pmward]

And yet again, what is it 3/4 years now? Bump against ~$1350 and repelled. Getting old.

To be fair... there was a very large open gap on the open Monday begging to be closed. Since it's rallied 15% from the bottom already in a very short time span, it would make 0 sense for that gap not to get closed. The rally is way too extended and long in the tooth to allow a huge breakaway gap like that. And that's really all that happened today, was the gap just barely got closed. Also, are you sure you really want gold to out-perform? I mean, if gold is out-performing it's not a good sign. Be careful what you wish for, imo.

[Cortopassi]

And yet again, what is it 3/4 years now? Bump against ~$1350 and repelled. Getting old.

To be fair... there was a very large open gap on the open Monday begging to be closed. Since it's rallied 15% from the bottom already in a very short time span, it would make 0 sense for that gap not to get closed. The rally is way too extended and long in the tooth to allow a huge breakaway gap like that. And that's really all that happened today, was the gap just barely got closed. Also, are you sure you really want gold to out-perform? I mean, if gold is out-performing it's not a good sign. Be careful what you wish for, imo.

Just ONCE I want to rebalance out of gold because it hit my 140% band!

[Kriegsspiel]

Also, are you sure you really want gold to out-perform? I mean, if gold is out-performing it's not a good sign. Be careful what you wish for, imo.

Yup. I remember either Craig or MediumTex saying the same thing a while ago.

[Dieter]

Also, are you sure you really want gold to out-perform? I mean, if gold is out-performing it's not a good sign. Be careful what you wish for, imo.

Yup. I remember either Craig or MediumTex saying the same thing a while ago.

I was so close to my gold getting up to a 0% return....

[Libertarian666]

Also, are you sure you really want gold to out-perform? I mean, if gold is out-performing it's not a good sign. Be careful what you wish for, imo.

Yup. I remember either Craig or MediumTex saying the same thing a while ago.

I was so close to my gold getting up to a 0% return....

I'm afraid I'm very far from that point.

[ochotona]

Newmont and Barrick deal: good, bad, other...?

I just wish Barrick sweetens the deal so my few Newmont shares will catch a bid and I can get out of them and get some GLDM. Sounds like they low-balled.

[ochotona]

gold cannot catch a bid even though nuclear India and nuclear Pakistan are shooting at each other. I think gold's role as a crisis hedge is vastly overstated or just plain wrong.

[dualstow]

I think gold's role as a crisis hedge is vastly overstated or just plain wrong.

It looks that way, doesn’t it? Maybe it used to be right and now markets (and people) are more resilient. It’s natural to question gold and the pp as stocks continue to climb- or, whether it’s natural or not, it’s what I do - but no way am I exiting my gold position while it’s down. I plan to let my nieces deal with it.

[buddtholomew]

I would just sell and be done with it...
Much more relaxing and financially rewarding.
Same applies to LTT’s and the PP as a whole.

[dualstow]

I would just sell and be done with it...
Much more relaxing and financially rewarding.
Same applies to LTT’s and the PP as a whole.

I think you did the right thing for you, but I’m not stressed. (bites nails) really I’m not.
I have about 11% in gold (vp+pp), and I don’t want to buy more to lower the average cost, either. Hanging tight.

Still, I’m only down 10%. Gold’s been down so g**damn long that it looks like up to me.

[Libertarian666]

gold cannot catch a bid even though nuclear India and nuclear Pakistan are shooting at each other. I think gold's role as a crisis hedge is vastly overstated or just plain wrong.

HB said gold would catch a bid during a crisis if the dollar was negatively affected by the crisis.

Is that the case here?

[pmward]

Yeah I'm not so sure that situation is going to boost gold for U.S. holders, as gold is always relative to the currency and economy you are in at the moment.

What may benefit gold in the coming years is that debt levels in the U.S. and around the world are just ballooning, and they are only going to get worse as modern monetary theory and socialism inevitably are going to spread. There is no realistic possibility I see of us turning back and not walking off the cliff. Politicians are going to continue to spend globally until they run out of money and people willing to lend to them. I also think that the "trade wars" are a mirage for what is actually a currency war in disguise. Eventually there is going to be a currency crisis. Just like the financial crisis in 2008, I think it's going to be a domino effect that is going to effect the entire world. I don't think it's going to start with us, but likely will start somewhere in Europe then likely spread to Asia. Eventually the dominos will start falling and it will topple us over as well. I just don't see a plausible argument for there not to be a mass global devaluation in the coming years. Even central banks realize this, as they have been quietly building gold reserves like it's going out of style over the last few years. This is not even to mention the issues we have in corporate and personal debt. There's a lot of bills coming due, and we are bound to test the tipping point sooner rather than later. This currency crisis may not happen this year or next, but it's bound to happen sometime in my lifetime. Just knowing that, it's worth holding gold as an insurance policy, because gold will double or even triple damn near overnight in a currency crisis. When this happens, we all will be glad that we got in early and patiently waited, especially if we are holding hard gold as opposed to paper gold.

As an aside on the paper gold topic, I personally believe the paper gold market is what is holding the gold price down right now, as there is more "paper gold" being created and traded than there is gold to actually back it up. I think that when gold does spike next there will be a run on these paper gold holdings and they will fail, further adding to the spike in gold. Those holding physical gold will be the big winners here. Anyway, this is my theory at least. We will see what actually happens.