The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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buddtholomew
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Tue Oct 23, 2018 3:03 pm

Eh same as ever..PP gave up all the gains in Gld and LTT’s as soon as stocks caught a bid. At the end of trading, Gld was up .60 and LTT’s up .32 while S&P ended down -.54
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Oct 23, 2018 3:12 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 3:03 pm
Eh same as ever..PP gave up all the gains in Gld and LTT’s as soon as stocks caught a bid. At the end of trading, Gld was up .60 and LTT’s up .32 while S&P ended down -.54
Yeah, but forgetting the day-to-day stuff, do you believe gold and long bonds will take care of you when there's a sustained downward trend in stocks. That is the important question.
TLT hit a 52-wk high, or so says an email from Vanguard 📈
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Tue Oct 23, 2018 3:17 pm

dualstow wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 3:12 pm
buddtholomew wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 3:03 pm
Eh same as ever..PP gave up all the gains in Gld and LTT’s as soon as stocks caught a bid. At the end of trading, Gld was up .60 and LTT’s up .32 while S&P ended down -.54
Yeah, but forgetting the day-to-day stuff, do you believe gold and long bonds will take care of you when there's a sustained downward trend in stocks. That is the important question.
I don’t know...we are in correction territory already and both gold and LTT’s are down YTD. So to answer your question, I don’t think they will protect in a downturn unless stocks are pummeled. At that point one should be a stock buyer anyway.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Oct 23, 2018 3:24 pm

Sounds good to me. I mean, if we're able to buy stocks with sales of those other assets.
I admit, that probably won't happen for me anytime soon as my gold has not been above water since 2011, I think.
But, it might.
TLT hit a 52-wk high, or so says an email from Vanguard 📈
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Tue Oct 23, 2018 3:34 pm

dualstow wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 3:24 pm
Sounds good to me. I mean, if we're able to buy stocks with sales of those other assets.
I admit, that probably won't happen for me anytime soon as my gold has not been above water since 2011, I think.
But, it might.
Yeah that is the dream...good to see gold somewhat steady but the pessimist in me sees a 2-3% decline before end of month.
Did want to highlight that 70/30 AA is now losing more than the PP so I am losing less in taxable but not gaining.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Oct 23, 2018 6:05 pm

Hmm, look at nisiprius’ post in this BH thread on bonds.
4th post from top.
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewto ... 1&t=262116
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by boglerdude » Tue Oct 23, 2018 9:22 pm

Direct links to posts are near the posters name =)

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewto ... 9#p4180094
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dualstow
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Oct 23, 2018 9:42 pm

boglerdude wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 9:22 pm
Direct links to posts are near the posters name =)

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewto ... 9#p4180094
Good point, thank you.
Nisi’s was the final post at the time, so I’d lazily used the address bar.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by sophie » Wed Oct 24, 2018 7:55 am

Budd, gold and bonds will rescue the portfolio from a stock market decline, but only over time scales of months at least - not days. This could simply be a "ohmigodwhat'sgoingtohappenwithchinatariffs" bleep in the market, rather than a true correction. No one knows yet.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Oct 24, 2018 9:26 am

a line from the Bogleheads post:

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Fair call out that it would be better to say independent vs negatively correlated. I definitely wouldn't seek an asset class that was anywhere near 100% inversely correlated given that would cancel out any gains in an evenly mixed portfolio.

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That's probably the best way to look at bonds and gold. Diversification. Sometimes tracks with, sometimes against, hopefully over the years the rebalancing helps capture gains and put money into the current losers.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Oct 24, 2018 12:41 pm

sophie wrote:
Wed Oct 24, 2018 7:55 am
Budd, gold and bonds will rescue the portfolio from a stock market decline, but only over time scales of months at least - not days. This could simply be a "ohmigodwhat'sgoingtohappenwithchinatariffs" bleep in the market, rather than a true correction. No one knows yet.
Eh, same shit different day.
Everyone keeps waiting for the magical moment one of the other assets takes over.
Here’s how it plays out...
Stocks decline, Gold and LTT’s decline, stocks recover and Gold and LTT’s self off.
Rinse and repeat.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Oct 24, 2018 1:47 pm

That's why I like dividends & interest.
Everything else, you just have to tear yourself away from. That's why it is so highly recommended, albeit difficult, to check the portfolio once a year.
TLT hit a 52-wk high, or so says an email from Vanguard 📈
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