The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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sophie
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by sophie » Sun Jul 22, 2018 9:51 am

buddtholomew wrote:
Thu Jul 19, 2018 9:42 am
Is everyone sitting down?
I’ve come full circle, acceptance.
Sticking to rebalancing bands and focusing on loss harvesting.
It’s easier that way for all of us!
Who are you and what have you done with Buddtholomew!

Congrats to you! Your peace of mind will thank you. Put the gold investment out of sight/out of mind, and when you need it, it'll be there for you.

BTW I don't buy that 17 year cycle bit. Gold prices react to whatever's going on in the world, and what's happening now is not the same as what's happened in the past, nor the future. The world changes and its state will never be repeated. Even if the same event happens, say, at two time points 20 years apart, the state of the world at those time points is different so the reaction will be different. I just don't think anyone has enough information to make these sorts of predictions.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by modeljc » Sun Jul 22, 2018 2:50 pm

sophie wrote:
Sun Jul 22, 2018 9:51 am
buddtholomew wrote:
Thu Jul 19, 2018 9:42 am
Is everyone sitting down?
I’ve come full circle, acceptance.
Sticking to rebalancing bands and focusing on loss harvesting.
It’s easier that way for all of us!
Who are you and what have you done with Buddtholomew!

Congrats to you! Your peace of mind will thank you. Put the gold investment out of sight/out of mind, and when you need it, it'll be there for you.

BTW I don't buy that 17 year cycle bit. Gold prices react to whatever's going on in the world, and what's happening now is not the same as what's happened in the past, nor the future. The world changes and its state will never be repeated. Even if the same event happens, say, at two time points 20 years apart, the state of the world at those time points is different so the reaction will be different. I just don't think anyone has enough information to make these sorts of predictions.
I agree but I still take the bet!
modeljc
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by modeljc » Sun Jul 22, 2018 6:28 pm

modeljc wrote:
Sun Jul 22, 2018 2:50 pm
sophie wrote:
Sun Jul 22, 2018 9:51 am
buddtholomew wrote:
Thu Jul 19, 2018 9:42 am
Is everyone sitting down?
I’ve come full circle, acceptance.
Sticking to rebalancing bands and focusing on loss harvesting.
It’s easier that way for all of us!
Who are you and what have you done with Buddtholomew!

Congrats to you! Your peace of mind will thank you. Put the gold investment out of sight/out of mind, and when you need it, it'll be there for you.

BTW I don't buy that 17 year cycle bit. Gold prices react to whatever's going on in the world, and what's happening now is not the same as what's happened in the past, nor the future. The world changes and its state will never be repeated. Even if the same event happens, say, at two time points 20 years apart, the state of the world at those time points is different so the reaction will be different. I just don't think anyone has enough information to make these sorts of predictions.
I agree but I still take the bet!
I thought about it and there is no way to collect the bet! I am 81 on July 26th. I love your posts!
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ochotona
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona » Tue Jul 31, 2018 8:33 am

Whew almost broke 1213...
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Aug 02, 2018 4:11 pm

ochotona wrote:
Tue Jul 31, 2018 8:33 am
Whew almost broke 1213...
Gold sucks. Figure we break 1200 tomorrow. 1.5 years wiped away, yet again. I am channeling budd here...

I need a crystal ball to tell me where my portfolio is in 10 years. Higher than now? If yes, I should just pull the plug on all these stupid sites I STILL go to and delete all my bookmarks to this site and any and all investment and business sites.

What am I going to hear about on the drive home?? Oohhhh, Apple is a TRILLION dollars. And that will be on the regular news, the nightly news the news websites, etc, etc.

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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by hardlawjockey » Thu Aug 02, 2018 4:34 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Aug 02, 2018 4:11 pm
What am I going to hear about on the drive home?? Oohhhh, Apple is a TRILLION dollars. And that will be on the regular news, the nightly news the news websites, etc, etc.
Try some music.
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ochotona
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona » Thu Aug 02, 2018 6:29 pm

The decline won't persist forever. It'll bounce eventually
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buddtholomew
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Thu Aug 02, 2018 6:46 pm

Here’s the narrative out there as far as I can see.
Trade war = stronger dollar = higher yields = lower gold.
Until one of the variables change Gold will stay lower and lower and lower...
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Cortopassi
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Aug 02, 2018 8:28 pm

hardlawjockey wrote:
Thu Aug 02, 2018 4:34 pm
Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Aug 02, 2018 4:11 pm
What am I going to hear about on the drive home?? Oohhhh, Apple is a TRILLION dollars. And that will be on the regular news, the nightly news the news websites, etc, etc.
Try some music.
I have been. I am on T of my A to Z listening in my collection over the past few weeks!
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drumminj
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by drumminj » Thu Aug 02, 2018 10:08 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Aug 02, 2018 4:11 pm
ochotona wrote:
Tue Jul 31, 2018 8:33 am
Whew almost broke 1213...
Gold sucks. Figure we break 1200 tomorrow. 1.5 years wiped away, yet again. I am channeling budd here...
Are you selling anytime soon? No? Then it doesn't really matter.

As you know (and have said), it's about the portfolio, not the components in isolation. All have draw-downs. Insurance has a cost. Presumably the peace of mind given by the insurance has value -- focus on that!
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buddtholomew
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Aug 03, 2018 7:14 am

drumminj wrote:
Thu Aug 02, 2018 10:08 pm
Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Aug 02, 2018 4:11 pm
ochotona wrote:
Tue Jul 31, 2018 8:33 am
Whew almost broke 1213...
Gold sucks. Figure we break 1200 tomorrow. 1.5 years wiped away, yet again. I am channeling budd here...
Are you selling anytime soon? No? Then it doesn't really matter.

As you know (and have said), it's about the portfolio, not the components in isolation. All have draw-downs. Insurance has a cost. Presumably the peace of mind given by the insurance has value -- focus on that!
Isn’t the PP negative YTD?
How does one focus on the portfolio and ignore Gold when it is down almost 8% with a 15% drawdown this year?
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ochotona
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona » Fri Aug 03, 2018 7:26 am

Was listening to Macro Voices podcast, and an idea I picked up there is if that US Dollar Index could go from 95 to 100 or even higher, gold could retest lows below $1200.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Fri Aug 03, 2018 10:34 am

buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Aug 03, 2018 7:14 am
How does one focus on the portfolio and ignore Gold when it is down almost 8% with a 15% drawdown this year?
[pocket protector engage]After CAGRing 6.54% in the past couple years, the PP can be expected to regress to the mean.

Using Tyler's rolling returns calculator, the PP has had a 3 year rolling CAGR over 6% in 15/48 years, or about 31%.
4 year rolling drops to 29%
5 year 25%
6 year 16.6%
7 year 12.5%
[/pocket protector]
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buddtholomew
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Aug 03, 2018 12:15 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Fri Aug 03, 2018 10:34 am
buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Aug 03, 2018 7:14 am
How does one focus on the portfolio and ignore Gold when it is down almost 8% with a 15% drawdown this year?
[pocket protector engage]After CAGRing 6.54% in the past couple years, the PP can be expected to regress to the mean.

Using Tyler's rolling returns calculator, the PP has had a 3 year rolling CAGR over 6% in 15/48 years, or about 31%.
4 year rolling drops to 29%
5 year 25%
6 year 16.6%
7 year 12.5%
[/pocket protector]
The 3-year return may be impressive to some but the portfolio trails in comparison to the most conservative 50/50 stock/bond allocation. Gold has sucked and that’s why. There’s a billion excuses, one for each cherry picked date and time as to how great the portfolio has performed, but in reality since the 2008 crisis this has been a poor portfolio to hold.
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ochotona
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona » Fri Aug 03, 2018 12:59 pm

I haven't looked, but how has this portfolio done since the late 90s? Because that is where we are again with stock valuations
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by barrett » Fri Aug 03, 2018 1:35 pm

ochotona wrote:
Fri Aug 03, 2018 12:59 pm
I haven't looked, but how has this portfolio done since the late 90s? Because that is where we are again with stock valuations
Anything beyond a time horizon of just a few years and the PP has always been in the 3% to 6% real return range. Here is Tyler's PP heat map from his site:

https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/p ... portfolio/

Whether or not the 3% to 6% real return will hold true going forward, I sure can't say. My view is that current high stock valuations aren't really an effect of an economic boom, but maybe I'm just too pessimistic (Pessimistic Portfolio). ZIRP pushed plenty of money into stocks that might have otherwise stayed elsewhere. And I think stock buybacks as a result of corporate tax cuts are doing more of the same now. But the average American is way over leveraged and won't have any funds with which to buy stocks. Maybe a few rich folks at the top of the pyramid (not really the correct image, I guess) will be able to keep stock prices going up, but I am not convinced that is likely... or at least I am not willing to bet heavily on that outcome.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Aug 14, 2018 2:13 pm

The previous scream room post was Aug 3, 11 days ago!

Have we all moved onto the Acceptance stage?
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Tue Aug 14, 2018 2:45 pm

Gold is really sperging out. Major lame. I'm going to get drunk and play a child's game.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by barrett » Tue Aug 14, 2018 3:07 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Aug 14, 2018 2:13 pm
The previous scream room post was Aug 3, 11 days ago!

Have we all moved onto the Acceptance stage?
My expectation for gold over the long haul is that it will do well in times when the USD is weak for extended periods. The link below is interesting:

https://www.macrotrends.net/1335/dollar ... -ten-years

Not sure why it says it's a ten year chart... when I pull it up I am seeing the gold/USD relationship all the way back to 1995, so almost 23 years of data. During the big run up in the 2000s, the USD was pretty weak in general. The relationship is far from being reliable in the short term but you can see, for example, that the low point in the USD in 2011 was pretty close to the high point in gold. The part of me that wants this relationship to REALLY make sense tells me that the last few hundred dollars of run up in 2010 and 2011 was largely a speculative bubble. Irrational Exuberance.

So, yeah, acceptance within this "understanding" of gold's price. As long as the stock market continues to hum along I expect gold to lag (and hopefully I'll be sensible enough to rebalance into it from time to time). Just my two cents.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Aug 14, 2018 3:37 pm

barrett, not sure that chart is accurate, or what info does it pull for the dollar basket? The dollar quote I use is this:

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/DXY

which is currently about 96.69, but the chart is showing the dollar, at least as of a couple weeks ago at 124, which is not even close?
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by barrett » Tue Aug 14, 2018 4:33 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Aug 14, 2018 3:37 pm
barrett, not sure that chart is accurate, or what info does it pull for the dollar basket? The dollar quote I use is this:

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/DXY

which is currently about 96.69, but the chart is showing the dollar, at least as of a couple weeks ago at 124, which is not even close?
That's an excellent damn question, Cortopassi! One sure can find all kinds of wacky gold and USD charts on the intraweb. While the absolute numbers on our two charts are quite different, they look fairly similar to me when looked at over the past three years (seems to be the only common timeframe of any meaning that I can get on both charts).

This FRED link seems to be pulling from the same basket as the first link I posted:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=33vD

And on the FRED chart, the weak USD/strong gold (and vice versa) relationship holds true for the most part.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Tue Aug 14, 2018 5:49 pm

I’ve always thought that a strong USD was the Achilles heal of the PP. With that in mind, I considered buying UUP until learning that the currency fluctuations were a wash over time according to Boglehead philosophy.

There is currently a positive relationship between a strong USD and SCV (not sure if this is historically true or the tariffs are contributing to domestic SC gains).

SCV has mitigated GLD losses this year and I am hopeful that holding this asset will continue to fill this void in the PP. Obviously this is the Golden Buttefly but do others see the strong USD a problem for the PP to mitigate?
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by modeljc » Tue Aug 14, 2018 6:16 pm

Gold is a precious metal. It so valuable that you can buy it at the cost of production! About $1100. Back up the truck. Get all you want. I do believe in PP. But it's a hard sell for all my friends. Think 1982 when interest rates were high. Went from $850 to $250. A little correction but it was a long one. Only about 20 years. All you lost was collecting the simple rate of interest. Now it is close to the cost of production. Maybe a store of value. Do you really want some! BUT if you bought it at $1900 probably not in my mind.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by barrett » Tue Aug 14, 2018 7:06 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Tue Aug 14, 2018 5:49 pm
I’ve always thought that a strong USD was the Achilles heal of the PP...
Looks like the FRED Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index includes includes currencies from the Euro Area, Canada, Japan, Mexico, China, United Kingdom, Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Brazil, Switzerland, Thailand, Philippines, Australia, Indonesia, India, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Sweden, Argentina, Venezuela, Chile and Colombia.

Don't know enough to answer your question, budd, but a strong USD would obviously be good for American companies that are importing raw materials to make stuff with. So quite possibly good for stocks while being bad for gold.

Not sure if or how this applies to the information economy though...
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by boglerdude » Wed Aug 15, 2018 1:51 am

Oh no, a strong currency. Those poor Swiss, cant export their chocolate and clocks :/
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