The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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vincent_c
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by vincent_c » Thu Sep 30, 2021 1:40 am

What are you getting?
barrett
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by barrett » Thu Sep 30, 2021 3:52 pm

vincent_c wrote:
Thu Sep 30, 2021 1:40 am
What are you getting?
Was this in reply to my question about real interest rates? If so, I am not sure what you are asking.
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Cortopassi
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Sep 30, 2021 3:54 pm

Wait -- gold up, everything else down? Are we in the mirror universe?
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by barrett » Thu Sep 30, 2021 4:54 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Sep 30, 2021 3:54 pm
Wait -- gold up, everything else down? Are we in the mirror universe?
Silver was up as well, right? I was wondering about your silver allocation and how you see it fitting into your asset allocation. Precious metals diversification? Industrial metal speculation? Fun to look at?
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Kriegsspiel
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Thu Sep 30, 2021 6:55 pm

You can sing the Silver And Gold song from claymation Rudolph and not feel like a poser.
And as for him who lacks the courage to defend even his own soul: Let him not brag of his progressive views, boast of his status as an academician or a recognized artist, a distinguished citizen or general. Let him say to himself plainly: I am cattle, I am a coward, I seek only warmth and to eat my fill.
Solzhenitsyn, Live Not By Lies
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Sep 30, 2021 6:57 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Thu Sep 30, 2021 6:55 pm
You can sing the Silver And Gold song from claymation Rudolph and not feel like a poser.
O0
The Beatles started it - they did it the best, and everyone who came after them were a kind of Beatles tribute band. ~ Kurt Cobain
vincent_c
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by vincent_c » Thu Sep 30, 2021 7:46 pm

barrett wrote:
Thu Sep 30, 2021 3:52 pm
vincent_c wrote:
Thu Sep 30, 2021 1:40 am
What are you getting?
Was this in reply to my question about real interest rates? If so, I am not sure what you are asking.
Yeah, you asked me to clarify how I am calculating real yields. I am just looking it up from that link in my post so there's nothing really to calculate. You simply need to look up the yield from a year ago and compare it to today and if it is less negative, then real yields are going up. You seemed to have a different calculation so I asked you what you were getting with your calculation.
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Cortopassi
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Sep 30, 2021 8:23 pm

barrett wrote:
Thu Sep 30, 2021 4:54 pm
Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Sep 30, 2021 3:54 pm
Wait -- gold up, everything else down? Are we in the mirror universe?
Silver was up as well, right? I was wondering about your silver allocation and how you see it fitting into your asset allocation. Precious metals diversification? Industrial metal speculation? Fun to look at?
I like looking at red numbers... ^-^

Seriously, I wanted volatility to have it cross bands more often, and it has.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by barrett » Fri Oct 01, 2021 7:43 am

vincent_c wrote:
Thu Sep 30, 2021 7:46 pm
barrett wrote:
Thu Sep 30, 2021 3:52 pm
vincent_c wrote:
Thu Sep 30, 2021 1:40 am
What are you getting?
Was this in reply to my question about real interest rates? If so, I am not sure what you are asking.
Yeah, you asked me to clarify how I am calculating real yields. I am just looking it up from that link in my post so there's nothing really to calculate. You simply need to look up the yield from a year ago and compare it to today and if it is less negative, then real yields are going up. You seemed to have a different calculation so I asked you what you were getting with your calculation.
Ah, now I see what you are saying. I had read this that you wrote:

"Depending on which part of the curve you're using, real yields are flat for 5 and 7 year and up for the 10 year."

The words "flat" and "up" I was reading as "zero" and "positive" when in fact real yields are still negative across the yield curve, but generally headed in the right direction from your point of view. Thanks for clarifying, vincent.
vincent_c
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by vincent_c » Fri Oct 01, 2021 9:02 am

Well if you want to understand the price movements of gold, which is what we were talking about, then it is the movement (and direction of that move) of real yields that is important. Negative real yields have been the norm for some time now and unlikely to reverse.
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buddtholomew
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Oct 29, 2021 8:45 am

Junk
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Cortopassi
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Fri Oct 29, 2021 8:53 am

Yeah Gold!

Gold Sucks!

Repeat!

Interesting volatility lately for sure. Every cross of 1800 is beaten back. One day..in the future...maybe the very distant future...

At least I don't care much anymore.
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buddtholomew
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Oct 29, 2021 8:54 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Fri Oct 29, 2021 8:53 am
Yeah Gold!

Gold Sucks!

Repeat!

Interesting volatility lately for sure. Every cross of 1800 is beaten back. One day..in the future...maybe the very distant future...

At least I don't care much anymore.
Me neither really...
Maybe gold is obsolete after all.
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Ugly_Bird
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ugly_Bird » Fri Oct 29, 2021 8:54 am

buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Oct 29, 2021 8:45 am
Junk
Yeah! Time to buy.
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buddtholomew
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Oct 29, 2021 9:00 am

Ugly_Bird wrote:
Fri Oct 29, 2021 8:54 am
buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Oct 29, 2021 8:45 am
Junk
Yeah! Time to buy.
Time to buy was at 900 not 1800, but please go ahead with your purchase.
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Ugly_Bird
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ugly_Bird » Fri Oct 29, 2021 9:05 am

buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Oct 29, 2021 9:00 am
Ugly_Bird wrote:
Fri Oct 29, 2021 8:54 am
buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Oct 29, 2021 8:45 am
Junk
Yeah! Time to buy.
Time to buy was at 900 not 1800, but please go ahead with your purchase.
450 was even better than that. Or maybe 225.
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buddtholomew
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Oct 29, 2021 9:10 am

I was too young for that.
Getting in circa 1000 was when I entered Gold.

UUP down .63% yesterday, gold flat
UUP up .56% today, gold down 1.4%
Hmm...so weak dollar, gold flat and strong dollar gold down.
Nice!!
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri Oct 29, 2021 10:24 am

buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Oct 29, 2021 8:45 am
Junk
O0 Welcome back, Budd. How was your sabbatical?
The Beatles started it - they did it the best, and everyone who came after them were a kind of Beatles tribute band. ~ Kurt Cobain
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mathjak107
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Sat Oct 30, 2021 4:47 am

buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Oct 29, 2021 9:10 am
I was too young for that.
Getting in circa 1000 was when I entered Gold.

UUP down .63% yesterday, gold flat
UUP up .56% today, gold down 1.4%
Hmm...so weak dollar, gold flat and strong dollar gold down.
Nice!!
a good inflation hedge i like is 5% gold , 5% commodities , I use dbc ,5% cash or floating rate loan fund and 5% Bitcoin , I use gbtc .

The other 80% are my conventional models of stock funds and short , high yield and intermediate term bonds .it is doing well after my rocky start in a hole with the pp this year
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buddtholomew
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Sat Oct 30, 2021 6:14 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Sat Oct 30, 2021 4:47 am
buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Oct 29, 2021 9:10 am
I was too young for that.
Getting in circa 1000 was when I entered Gold.

UUP down .63% yesterday, gold flat
UUP up .56% today, gold down 1.4%
Hmm...so weak dollar, gold flat and strong dollar gold down.
Nice!!
a good inflation hedge i like is 5% gold , 5% commodities , I use dbc ,5% cash or floating rate loan fund and 5% Bitcoin , I use gbtc .

The other 80% are my conventional models of stock funds and short , high yield and intermediate term bonds .it is doing well after my rocky start in a hole with the pp this year
I too have shortened duration (cash and ITT’s), 5% Gold, 7.5% REIT, a smidge of Bitcoin and the remaining 85% in US/INT stocks including SCV and EM.

PP +3% YTD, Gold down 7% while we have the highest inflation readings in 30 years. PP losing to inflation by 2+%

SPY is +24% and REIT is +35%. That is how a true inflation hedge should perform not have a negative YTD return.
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mathjak107
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Sat Oct 30, 2021 7:54 am

Gold will not respond to inflation as long as inflation is not hurting stocks . High inflation can crush stocks like it did for 2 decades. But as long as better vehicles exist gold and inflation have little correlation.

Just because we have demand - pull inflation and not monetary inflation as the source of our higher than normal inflation does not mean money will channel to gold when other assets are doing well

Which is why today with the ease of adding commodities I like having having a commodities etf in my mix. Bitcoin may work too but no history on it
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buddtholomew
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Sat Oct 30, 2021 8:20 am

Why do you exclude REITs?
Real estate (both residential and trust) have performed superbly since my initial investments 10+ years ago.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Sat Oct 30, 2021 8:29 am

I owned plenty of real estate before I retired .

I find reits are wishy washy …they respond one way one time and another way another time which is why the pp doesn’t use it , plus it is subject to local conditions .

Reits in my opinion are better outdone by stocks and a commodity etf .reits depend heavily on borrowed money and rates .

The same as I felt about long term treasuries this year I feel rising rates are reits kryptonite

I owned a private reit once too ,,, it eventually went public and I sold .. it sucked and still sucks …some like o are good but again to subject to local economies for my taste.

Dbc up 46% ytd and 69% over the one year .

Vti up up 23% ytd and 44% over the one year

O reit up 18% ytd 28% over the one year

Gold down about 6% for the ytd and one year

Tlt down about 5% over the same time frames
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buddtholomew
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Sat Oct 30, 2021 8:48 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Sat Oct 30, 2021 8:29 am
I owned plenty of real estate before I retired .

I find reits are wishy washy …they respond one way one time and another way another time which is why the pp doesn’t use it , plus it is subject to local conditions .

Reits in my opinion are better outdone by stocks and a commodity etf .reits depend heavily on borrowed money and rates .

The same as I felt about long term treasuries this year I feel rising rates are reits kryptonite

I owned a private reit once too ,,, it eventually went public and I sold .. it sucked and still sucks …some like o are good but again to subject to local economies for my taste.

Dbc up 46% ytd and 69% over the one year .

Vti up up 23% ytd and 44% over the one year

O reit up 18% ytd 28% over the one year

Gold down about 6% for the ytd and one year

Tlt down about 5% over the same time frames
I think REITs are less wishy washy than Gold and Gold would have to reach 6000 for it to surpass my real estate gains. Also yields have risen and REITs continue their upward move.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Sat Oct 30, 2021 8:51 am

No doubt but in my opinion gold is a proxy not for stocks or even bonds…gold is a competitor to the dollar and as such it really should be compared to having that money in cash instruments ….

Yes , the pp makes a distinction but for comparison purposes it makes no sense to compare equity returns to gold returns since gold is a store of value like cash instruments.

Gold should go with stocks if one does not want 80-100% equities….it is not instead of equities if you follow my drift …it is like stocks have been matched to bond allocations forever if one does not want 100% equities …it isn’t an either or comparison.

You are just buying gold with some of the money you may have had in bonds or cash instruments….so gold and cash instruments are a better comparison then gold or stocks would be
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