The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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Tortoise
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Tortoise » Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:07 pm

vincent_c wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 11:59 am
If anything, I think you should be monitoring your portfolios as much as you can because if you're invested in the PP you are paying for that reduced volatility. Since you're also buying into the PP every single day you hold it a fresh evaluation of the assumptions of why you invested in it should be done on a constant basis. It may only take a moment's reflection but to ignore it is just to be ignorant and you will suffer the consequences if such risks arise and you're not prepared or cannot react fast enough.

It just comes down to this question: Are you speculating with the PP or investing in it?

If you're speculating with it, then yes, by all means check your portfolio every day to decide whether to keep going or change course.

But if you're investing in it, checking your portfolio every day is pointless at best and counterproductive at worst. You are tempting fate by doing that.

I think of it like riding through choppy water. If I'm speculating, I'm on a jet ski and need to know at all times if a big wave is approaching so I can maneuver appropriately to avoid getting clobbered by it. But if I'm investing, I'm on a big boat and don't need to worry myself and possibly jump overboard every time the ship bobs up and down from a wave. I just need the boat to be stable enough that I don't get violently seasick from the motion. Even if the boat's size and stability slows my journey down a bit, I can be confident that I'll reach my destination eventually.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:09 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:07 pm
vincent_c wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 11:59 am
If anything, I think you should be monitoring your portfolios as much as you can because if you're invested in the PP you are paying for that reduced volatility. Since you're also buying into the PP every single day you hold it a fresh evaluation of the assumptions of why you invested in it should be done on a constant basis. It may only take a moment's reflection but to ignore it is just to be ignorant and you will suffer the consequences if such risks arise and you're not prepared or cannot react fast enough.

It just comes down to this question: Are you speculating with the PP or investing in it?

If you're speculating with it, then yes, by all means check your portfolio every day to decide whether to keep going or change course.

But if you're investing in it, checking your portfolio every day is pointless at best and counterproductive at worst. You are tempting fate by doing that.

I think of it like riding through choppy water. If I'm speculating, I'm on a jet ski and need to know at all times if a big wave is approaching so I can maneuver appropriately to avoid getting clobbered by it. But if I'm investing, I'm on a big boat and don't need to worry myself and possibly jump overboard every time the ship bobs up and down from a wave. I just need the boat to be stable enough that I don't get violently seasick from the motion. Even if the boat's size and stability slows my journey down a bit, I can be confident that I'll reach my destination eventually.
That boat analogy should be in a book!
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pp4me » Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:27 pm

vincent_c wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 11:59 am
If anything, I think you should be monitoring your portfolios as much as you can because if you're invested in the PP you are paying for that reduced volatility. Since you're also buying into the PP every single day you hold it a fresh evaluation of the assumptions of why you invested in it should be done on a constant basis. It may only take a moment's reflection but to ignore it is just to be ignorant and you will suffer the consequences if such risks arise and you're not prepared or cannot react fast enough.
You obviously disagree with those who wrote the books on the PP (HB,MT,and Craig). As for the reacting fast part, I remember HB did recommend paying attention when there was something extraordinary going on in the economy.

I do agree that new PPer's should watch at the beginning when they first start out just to get a feel on how the volatility plays out. I had never done anything like this before I started the PP and was amazed to see how much volatility there can be in a single day. Apparently there a lot of portfolio watchers reacting fast to economic events. Eventually I got bored and put it mostly on auto-pilot.
Last edited by pp4me on Fri Sep 17, 2021 2:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ugly_Bird » Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:55 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:01 pm
Notice how gold and LTT’s just go lower even with stocks falling. This is not new to anyone.
Stocks are falling all day, what a crap, -0.88% already. This is dog shit, man. Total joke.
:)
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Sep 17, 2021 2:04 pm

Ugly_Bird wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:55 pm
buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:01 pm
Notice how gold and LTT’s just go lower even with stocks falling. This is not new to anyone.
Stocks are falling all day, what a crap, -0.88% already. This is dog shit, man. Total joke.
:)
S&P still up 21% YTD
Gold and LTT’s NEGATIVE YTD by a lot.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ugly_Bird » Fri Sep 17, 2021 2:16 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 2:04 pm
Ugly_Bird wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:55 pm
buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:01 pm
Notice how gold and LTT’s just go lower even with stocks falling. This is not new to anyone.
Stocks are falling all day, what a crap, -0.88% already. This is dog shit, man. Total joke.
:)
S&P still up 21% YTD
Gold and LTT’s NEGATIVE YTD by a lot.
S&P is -0.94% today and keeps going down! :P
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buddtholomew
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Sep 17, 2021 2:16 pm

Ugly_Bird wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 2:16 pm
buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 2:04 pm
Ugly_Bird wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:55 pm
buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:01 pm
Notice how gold and LTT’s just go lower even with stocks falling. This is not new to anyone.
Stocks are falling all day, what a crap, -0.88% already. This is dog shit, man. Total joke.
:)
S&P still up 21% YTD
Gold and LTT’s NEGATIVE YTD by a lot.
S&P is -0.94% today and keeps going down! :P
Still up 21%. I’d be more worried about your gold and bonds foo.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ugly_Bird » Fri Sep 17, 2021 2:32 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 2:16 pm
Ugly_Bird wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 2:16 pm
buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 2:04 pm
Ugly_Bird wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:55 pm
buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:01 pm
Notice how gold and LTT’s just go lower even with stocks falling. This is not new to anyone.
Stocks are falling all day, what a crap, -0.88% already. This is dog shit, man. Total joke.
:)
S&P still up 21% YTD
Gold and LTT’s NEGATIVE YTD by a lot.
S&P is -0.94% today and keeps going down! :P
Still up 21%. I’d be more worried about your gold and bonds foo.
OK. So be worried.
I'm not :-)
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buddtholomew
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Sep 17, 2021 2:33 pm

Ugly_Bird wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 2:32 pm
buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 2:16 pm
Ugly_Bird wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 2:16 pm
buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 2:04 pm
Ugly_Bird wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:55 pm
buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:01 pm
Notice how gold and LTT’s just go lower even with stocks falling. This is not new to anyone.
Stocks are falling all day, what a crap, -0.88% already. This is dog shit, man. Total joke.
:)
S&P still up 21% YTD
Gold and LTT’s NEGATIVE YTD by a lot.
S&P is -0.94% today and keeps going down! :P
Still up 21%. I’d be more worried about your gold and bonds foo.
OK. So be worried.
I'm not :-)
Ok good for you.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ugly_Bird » Fri Sep 17, 2021 2:42 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 2:33 pm
Ugly_Bird wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 2:32 pm
buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 2:16 pm
Ugly_Bird wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 2:16 pm
buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 2:04 pm
Ugly_Bird wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:55 pm
buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:01 pm
Notice how gold and LTT’s just go lower even with stocks falling. This is not new to anyone.
Stocks are falling all day, what a crap, -0.88% already. This is dog shit, man. Total joke.
:)
S&P still up 21% YTD
Gold and LTT’s NEGATIVE YTD by a lot.
S&P is -0.94% today and keeps going down! :P
Still up 21%. I’d be more worried about your gold and bonds foo.
OK. So be worried.
I'm not :-)
Ok good for you.
Invest in crypto. There will be plenty of days to pull the hair out. :-)
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri Sep 17, 2021 2:51 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:09 pm
That boat analogy should be in a book!
Or maybe like, a gyroscope! O0
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by vincent_c » Fri Sep 17, 2021 3:47 pm

pp4me wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:27 pm
I do agree that new PPer's should watch at the beginning when they first start out just to get a feel on how the volatility plays out. I had never done anything like this before I started the PP and was amazed to see how much volatility there can be in a single day. Apparently there a lot of portfolio watchers reacting fast to economic events. Eventually I got bored and put it mostly on auto-pilot.
Hey don't get me wrong, I expect to evaluate the assumptions and verify that nothing needs to be done. Reacting fast means taking action when assumptions fail, not when an asset experiences volatility.

Edit: Oh maybe instead of checking the portfolio I should be saying evaluating the assumptions and price is really just one indicator i.e. if the price doesn't seem off then there's probably nothing to think about. If something is up with the price then it deserves a deeper dive into what's going on. So that's really what I meant rather than checking the price of each asset, I actually recommend looking only at % changes for the assets and focusing on the value of the entire portfolio.
Last edited by vincent_c on Fri Sep 17, 2021 4:01 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by vincent_c » Fri Sep 17, 2021 3:54 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:07 pm
It just comes down to this question: Are you speculating with the PP or investing in it?

If you're speculating with it, then yes, by all means check your portfolio every day to decide whether to keep going or change course.

But if you're investing in it, checking your portfolio every day is pointless at best and counterproductive at worst. You are tempting fate by doing that.

I think of it like riding through choppy water. If I'm speculating, I'm on a jet ski and need to know at all times if a big wave is approaching so I can maneuver appropriately to avoid getting clobbered by it. But if I'm investing, I'm on a big boat and don't need to worry myself and possibly jump overboard every time the ship bobs up and down from a wave. I just need the boat to be stable enough that I don't get violently seasick from the motion. Even if the boat's size and stability slows my journey down a bit, I can be confident that I'll reach my destination eventually.
The way I view speculation and investing would be like this.

If there is an expected return then it is an investment.

If there is no expected return but it is a greater fool asset then it is a speculation. What we hope is that the speculation on one asset class is offset by the speculation in another asset class when we buy the PP. This may be a false assumption and price does matter so it's probably better to enter a portfolio like the PP when gold in hindsight was undervalued due to speculation than when it is overvalued due to speculation.

A lot of us in the PP have a high allocation to gold and we did get lucky because we didn't enter into a price that was extremely overvalued without buying some other asset that was at the same time very undervalued. The problem is if you can't identify an offsetting asset that you think is currently undervalued because that could mean that it may be a very bad time to enter the HBPP.

Oh, and whether you're investing or speculating, the only reason checking your portfolio is sometimes said to be bad is due to human behavior/psychology and if you struggle with that then I can see a good reason why you wouldn't want to check (i.e. undue stress), but something like the PP should allow you to be more robotic.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:20 pm

So pathetic, market down 1000 and this piece of crap up .5%..waste of space and time.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ugly_Bird » Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:32 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:20 pm
So pathetic, market down 1000 and this piece of crap up .5%..waste of space and time.
Uncorrelated assets...
You should have sold stocks last Friday :)
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:42 pm

Ugly_Bird wrote:
Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:32 pm
buddtholomew wrote:
Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:20 pm
So pathetic, market down 1000 and this piece of crap up .5%..waste of space and time.
Uncorrelated assets...
You should have sold stocks last Friday :)
Nah. Where' MJ? Stocks always come back. Time to buy! :D

Image
Last edited by Cortopassi on Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Tortoise » Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:43 pm

Gold's response to today's stock dip may be muted thus far, but I'm happy that the PP overall is down only -0.2% even though stocks are down -2.7%. Makes the stock drama less panicky.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ugly_Bird » Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:44 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:42 pm
Ugly_Bird wrote:
Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:32 pm
buddtholomew wrote:
Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:20 pm
So pathetic, market down 1000 and this piece of crap up .5%..waste of space and time.
Uncorrelated assets...
You should have sold stocks last Friday :)
Nah. Where' MJ? Stocks always come back. Time to buy! :D
Right! Sold last Friday bought today or... maybe tomorrow? Or the day after? Just need to keep the crystal ball crystal clear :P
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Xan » Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:24 pm

Budd has requested a temporary ban, so he'll be taking a break from posting for a while.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ugly_Bird » Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:38 pm

Xan wrote:
Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:24 pm
Budd has requested a temporary ban, so he'll be taking a break from posting for a while.
Déjà vu...
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:55 pm

While it appears that crypto is not yet ready for primetime as a safe haven (as the talking heads are pointing out), I am satisfied with gold’s performance today.
The Beatles started it - they did it the best, and everyone who came after them were a kind of Beatles tribute band. ~ Kurt Cobain
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by SomeDude » Mon Sep 20, 2021 3:49 pm

Ugly_Bird wrote:
Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:38 pm
Xan wrote:
Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:24 pm
Budd has requested a temporary ban, so he'll be taking a break from posting for a while.
Déjà vu...
Electronic lap-band surgery
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by SomeDude » Mon Sep 20, 2021 3:56 pm

dualstow wrote:
Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:55 pm
While it appears that crypto is not yet ready for primetime as a safe haven (as the talking heads are pointing out), I am satisfied with gold’s performance today.
Everyone needs to pile into bitcoin and keep the goldprice cheap for me. The crypto scam can end when I've got a few hundred more oz.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by vincent_c » Mon Sep 20, 2021 9:32 pm

A lot/almost all of the alt coins are way overvalued and will drop 90%+ and a lot of bitcoin’s value in adoption is tied to that so when the altcoin bubble bursts the air in bitcoin will be released too. It’s a mistake to dismiss bitcoin just because it’s overvalued. Everyone should be a buyer at the right price. The adoption needs to be more than just speculation and get rich quick thinking but it will get there, will you be holding bitcoin when it does?
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:40 pm

yes, I’m holding it now, but not as a safe haven.
The Beatles started it - they did it the best, and everyone who came after them were a kind of Beatles tribute band. ~ Kurt Cobain
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