The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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Libertarian666
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:58 am

Lonestar wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:56 am
Help me understand. A world crisis and the Fed basically announces another QE (assuming this weakens the dollar) and gold prices crater????
https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-03-16/G ... u-can.html
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:59 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:21 am
Well I bought Friday with it down almost 9% last week.

I will add another 50k today It I doubt I will add more if we fall. I will just sit with it. I had as much as 500k in it at one time.

gold is in a bad position lately ... it ran up from the fear ,, now lost it pretty much and then some from the sell off ... the dilemma is it is not doing well with fear high and it stands high odds of getting beat up as fear declines and equities at these levels become the golden child
The question is how long. This is obviously not a one day terrorist event. This is a multi-month slow motion disaster that is going to put equities (and gold?) at levels likely unimaginable just a couple month ago. No where to hide except cash, and maybe, we'll see, bonds.

Lonestar, all I can say is if gold reacts, it isn't on a day by day basis. It should work out in the end, but you'll hate it along the way and lose confidence in it!

The ups and downs on all the assets is doing a really good job for me mentally to not give a crap about how one performs vs. the others.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:14 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:59 am
mathjak107 wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:21 am
Well I bought Friday with it down almost 9% last week.

I will add another 50k today I doubt I will add more if we fall. I will just sit with it. I had as much as 500k in it at one time.

gold is in a bad position lately ... it ran up from the fear ,, now lost it pretty much and then some from the sell off ... the dilemma is it is not doing well with fear high and it stands high odds of getting beat up as fear declines and equities at these levels become the golden child
The question is how long. This is obviously not a one day terrorist event. This is a multi-month slow motion disaster that is going to put equities (and gold?) at levels likely unimaginable just a couple month ago. No where to hide except cash, and maybe, we'll see, bonds.

Lonestar, all I can say is if gold reacts, it isn't on a day by day basis. It should work out in the end, but you'll hate it along the way and lose confidence in it!

The ups and downs on all the assets is doing a really good job for me mentally to not give a crap about how one performs vs. the others.
very true ... when even the supposed flight to safety assets suck there is little to watch or care about .....the profit i will see in TLT today on what i bought friday is like peeing in the ocean .
Last edited by mathjak107 on Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:19 am

#humblebrag
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mdwilson1991 » Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:05 am

Lonestar wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:56 am
Help me understand. A world crisis and the Fed basically announces another QE (assuming this weakens the dollar) and gold prices crater????
This certainly seems like it would be one of those times that gold skyrockets. Instead the opposite.

Again, who can predict what will happen? Not many of us, for very long.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ad Orientem » Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:48 am

Gold trading around 1477 oz. I just ordered a krugerand because I couldn't stand it anymore.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:12 am

Ad Orientem wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:48 am
Gold trading around 1477 oz. I just ordered a krugerand because I couldn't stand it anymore.
I think German psychoanalyst Sigmund Freud coined the term for that, kaufkrugerrandkanntschtanditknomor
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:21 am

dualstow wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:12 am
Ad Orientem wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:48 am
Gold trading around 1477 oz. I just ordered a krugerand because I couldn't stand it anymore.
I think German psychoanalyst Sigmund Freud coined the term for that, kaufkrugerrandkanntschtanditknomor
Good one. Gold popping back up, so good call AD.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:26 am

Gold is following stocks ....to funny ....
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:41 am

Guys this happens every time. Go look back at 2008, in the panic gold dropped along with stocks, even though fundamentally it was good for gold long term. It was one of the best buying opportunities for gold in decades. Same thing is playing out today. Gold will go up dramatically once the panic starts to subside and people have to stop selling gold to cover margin calls.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:51 am

pmward wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:41 am
Guys this happens every time. Go look back at 2008, in the panic gold dropped along with stocks, even though fundamentally it was good for gold long term. It was one of the best buying opportunities for gold in decades. Same thing is playing out today. Gold will go up dramatically once the panic starts to subside and people have to stop selling gold to cover margin calls.
Yes, and in fact in 2008 the "price drops" were more apparent than real. I tried to buy some gold when it dropped to $800, and the only physical metal I could find, namely 1 oz. Kitco bars, had a premium of 10%, which is at least twice the normal premium.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:57 am

Apmex doesn't have the coins I want. 2020 year kangaroos. I can wait.
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Tue Mar 17, 2020 12:49 pm

I am looking at all the stimulus they have announced in the last week. All I have to say is holy crap! I would be shocked if gold isn't at new highs in the next year to two at most. I'm almost hoping this panic selling takes gold back down to that $1350-1400 range, as I would love to do a ~5% overbalance there (from bonds). I just cannot fathom a scenario where gold isn't up big a year from now. I'm incredibly bullish gold long term.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Tortoise » Tue Mar 17, 2020 12:53 pm

Maybe the fact that coin dealers are completely selling out of gold bullion coins this past week is a leading indicator for the price of gold?
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Tue Mar 17, 2020 12:55 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 12:53 pm
Maybe the fact that coin dealers are completely selling out of gold bullion coins this past week is a leading indicator for the price of gold?
Yeah, I think the selling has mostly been in paper markets. Big funds selling to meet margin calls or to increase liquidity. There's no way this is not good for gold long term. How often do we get a chance to buy an asset that is fundamentally increasing in value at the same time price is declining? I now have my rules in place for where I would do another stock rebalance if needed, and now I also have rules in place for when I could do a 5% overbalance into gold. Now that the plan is in place, I can just sit back, relax, and see if any of the rules I've put in place get triggered.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ppnewbie » Tue Mar 17, 2020 2:45 pm

Looking through some of the large sellers Provident, Apmex, JM Bullion and many of them are sold out of a majority of their gold inventory bars and coins
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Tue Mar 17, 2020 2:59 pm

pmward wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 12:55 pm
Tortoise wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 12:53 pm
Maybe the fact that coin dealers are completely selling out of gold bullion coins this past week is a leading indicator for the price of gold?
Yeah, I think the selling has mostly been in paper markets. Big funds selling to meet margin calls or to increase liquidity. There's no way this is not good for gold long term. How often do we get a chance to buy an asset that is fundamentally increasing in value at the same time price is declining? I now have my rules in place for where I would do another stock rebalance if needed, and now I also have rules in place for when I could do a 5% overbalance into gold. Now that the plan is in place, I can just sit back, relax, and see if any of the rules I've put in place get triggered.
I have an even easier plan.
Do nothing because I'm already at 65% gold.
Don't try this at home, kids. :D
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Mar 17, 2020 4:07 pm

ppnewbie wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 2:45 pm
Looking through some of the large sellers Provident, Apmex, JM Bullion and many of them are sold out of a majority of their gold inventory bars and coins
I placed an alert for when a single coin was back in stock. I guess I responded too slowly because it's sold out again.
That's ok. If gold soars, I won't complain.
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ppnewbie » Tue Mar 17, 2020 4:28 pm

I need to work on my overbalance rules. I did get my hands on a sweet valcambi CombiBar!
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Tue Mar 17, 2020 5:44 pm

ppnewbie wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 4:28 pm
I need to work on my overbalance rules. I did get my hands on a sweet valcambi CombiBar!
PICTURES. PICTURES. PICTURES.

You have no idea how jealous I am.
I still find the James Rickards portfolio fascinating.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Tue Mar 17, 2020 6:45 pm

Smith1776 wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 5:44 pm
ppnewbie wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 4:28 pm
I need to work on my overbalance rules. I did get my hands on a sweet valcambi CombiBar!
PICTURES. PICTURES. PICTURES.

You have no idea how jealous I am.
Here you go: Image
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:21 pm

Just print the photo in full color and keep it in your pocket. It’s worth about the same.
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:04 pm

dualstow wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:21 pm
Just print the photo in full color and keep it in your pocket. It’s worth about the same.
If your printer uses real gold for that color, that may be right.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:33 am

Libertarian666 wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:04 pm
dualstow wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:21 pm
Just print the photo in full color and keep it in your pocket. It’s worth about the same.
If your printer uses real gold for that color, that may be right.
Mere hyperbole. O0 I’m just proselytizing for 1oz coins.
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Vil » Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:42 am

On a funny note, today https://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html , returns back HTTP response code 504 with the following explanation:

We can't connect to the server for this app or website at this time. There might be too much traffic or a configuration error.

;D

Guess those are words of wisdom and actually they meant some more global configuration error .. ;D
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