The GOLD scream room
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Re: The GOLD scream room
Personally, I think it's because the market is sniffing deflation... and they are going back to the old trusty deflation handbook. Long bonds are *the* asset right now and nothing else matters. If the virus starts to take hold in the U.S. I expect to see gold react a bit more. I also think it will react more if/when the Fed announces rate cuts or QE. But I'm not surprised to see it consolidating right now in the short term while bonds are running like they stole something. From a long term perspective, it's probably better for it to consolidate and digest its recent gains a bit. If it kept screaming higher like bonds are it would also put gold at risk of a blowoff top.
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Re: The GOLD scream room
A bit light on Gold at the moment. Considering doing my IRA contributions early (I usually wait until the last minute) to get back in range.
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Re: The GOLD scream room
I think we must be in the end times.
I say that because I sold a chunk yesterday just before today's plunge.
This is against all previous history, which would predict that it would soar after I sold.
I say that because I sold a chunk yesterday just before today's plunge.
This is against all previous history, which would predict that it would soar after I sold.
Re: The GOLD scream room
Is is possible that gold is loosing because the investors want to free up cash to buy stocks, which can stop plummeting any moment if the fear goes away?Cortopassi wrote: ↑Fri Feb 28, 2020 8:20 am I was wondering what your thoughts are over the past 2-3 days where gold has languished.
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Re: The GOLD scream room
I don't think that's the explanation. I think speculators are selling to meet margin calls in the stock market, but of course now there are also margin calls in the gold market.Ugly_Bird wrote: ↑Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:44 pmIs is possible that gold is loosing because the investors want to free up cash to buy stocks, which can stop plummeting any moment if the fear goes away?Cortopassi wrote: ↑Fri Feb 28, 2020 8:20 am I was wondering what your thoughts are over the past 2-3 days where gold has languished.
But once everything settles out I think gold will resume its uptrend.
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Re: The GOLD scream room
Wow. If you could only predict this stuff.
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Re: The GOLD scream room
I can predict it.
It will fluctuate!
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Re: The GOLD scream room
"Today the world’s gold stock is about 170,000 metric tons. If all of this gold were melded together, it
would form a cube of about 68 feet per side. (Picture it fitting comfortably within a baseball infield.) At
$1,750 per ounce – gold’s price as I write this – its value would be $9.6 trillion. Call this cube pile A.
Let’s now create a pile B costing an equal amount. For that, we could buy all U.S. cropland (400
million acres with output of about $200 billion annually), plus 16 Exxon Mobils (the world’s most
profitable company, one earning more than $40 billion annually). After these purchases, we would
have about $1 trillion left over for walking-around money (no sense feeling strapped after this buying
binge).
Can you imagine an investor with $9.6 trillion selecting pile A over pile B?
Beyond the staggering valuation given the existing stock of gold, current prices make today’s annual
production of gold command about $160 billion. Buyers – whether jewelry and industrial users,
frightened individuals, or speculators – must continually absorb this additional supply to merely
maintain an equilibrium at present prices.
A century from now the 400 million acres of farmland will have produced staggering amounts of corn,
wheat, cotton, and other crops – and will continue to produce that valuable bounty, whatever the
currency may be. Exxon Mobil will probably have delivered trillions of dollars in dividends to its
owners and will also hold assets worth many more trillions (and, remember, you get 16 Exxons). The
170,000 tons of gold will be unchanged in size and still incapable of producing anything. You can
fondle the cube, but it will not respond.
Admittedly, when people a century from now are fearful, it’s likely many will still rush to gold. I’m
confident, however, that the $9.6 trillion current valuation of pile A will compound over the century at
a rate far inferior to that achieved by pile B."
would form a cube of about 68 feet per side. (Picture it fitting comfortably within a baseball infield.) At
$1,750 per ounce – gold’s price as I write this – its value would be $9.6 trillion. Call this cube pile A.
Let’s now create a pile B costing an equal amount. For that, we could buy all U.S. cropland (400
million acres with output of about $200 billion annually), plus 16 Exxon Mobils (the world’s most
profitable company, one earning more than $40 billion annually). After these purchases, we would
have about $1 trillion left over for walking-around money (no sense feeling strapped after this buying
binge).
Can you imagine an investor with $9.6 trillion selecting pile A over pile B?
Beyond the staggering valuation given the existing stock of gold, current prices make today’s annual
production of gold command about $160 billion. Buyers – whether jewelry and industrial users,
frightened individuals, or speculators – must continually absorb this additional supply to merely
maintain an equilibrium at present prices.
A century from now the 400 million acres of farmland will have produced staggering amounts of corn,
wheat, cotton, and other crops – and will continue to produce that valuable bounty, whatever the
currency may be. Exxon Mobil will probably have delivered trillions of dollars in dividends to its
owners and will also hold assets worth many more trillions (and, remember, you get 16 Exxons). The
170,000 tons of gold will be unchanged in size and still incapable of producing anything. You can
fondle the cube, but it will not respond.
Admittedly, when people a century from now are fearful, it’s likely many will still rush to gold. I’m
confident, however, that the $9.6 trillion current valuation of pile A will compound over the century at
a rate far inferior to that achieved by pile B."
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Re: The GOLD scream room
boglerdude’s post is an unattributed quote of Warren Buffett.
The Exxon Mobil part is out of date as of 2020.
The Exxon Mobil part is out of date as of 2020.
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Re: The GOLD scream room
A century from now we can be getting all our power from Mr. Fusion, and making our own food in our 3D food printer in the kitchen. Farmland is all national parks and Exxon is long gone.
Meanwhile I've cornered the market for gold jewelry for 100 years and am a gazillionaire. I also give tours of the shiny metal cube for $10 a pop.
Meanwhile I've cornered the market for gold jewelry for 100 years and am a gazillionaire. I also give tours of the shiny metal cube for $10 a pop.
Re: The GOLD scream room
Wasn't there a Twilight Zone episode where some robbers with stolen gold put themselves into suspended animation for 100 years, then try to hike through the desert to civilization with their gold? They die along the way. A passerby later finds them and notes that all the gold has been worthless since it was discovered how to manufacture it artificially.Cortopassi wrote: ↑Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:17 am A century from now we can be getting all our power from Mr. Fusion, and making our own food in our 3D food printer in the kitchen. Farmland is all national parks and Exxon is long gone.
Meanwhile I've cornered the market for gold jewelry for 100 years and am a gazillionaire. I also give tours of the shiny metal cube for $10 a pop.
It's hard to predict the future!
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Re: The GOLD scream room
Gold: worthless
a Hundred-Year Nap: Priceless
a Hundred-Year Nap: Priceless
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Re: The GOLD scream room
Jeffrey Gundlach just said that gold is near all-time highs with other currencies, and that he expects it will hit an all-time high relative to the dollar. (cnbc)
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Re: The GOLD scream room
Yes. Good episode!Xan wrote: ↑Thu Mar 05, 2020 9:22 amWasn't there a Twilight Zone episode where some robbers with stolen gold put themselves into suspended animation for 100 years, then try to hike through the desert to civilization with their gold? They die along the way. A passerby later finds them and notes that all the gold has been worthless since it was discovered how to manufacture it artificially.Cortopassi wrote: ↑Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:17 am A century from now we can be getting all our power from Mr. Fusion, and making our own food in our 3D food printer in the kitchen. Farmland is all national parks and Exxon is long gone.
Meanwhile I've cornered the market for gold jewelry for 100 years and am a gazillionaire. I also give tours of the shiny metal cube for $10 a pop.
It's hard to predict the future!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Rip_Van_Winkle_Caper
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Re: The GOLD scream room
I can't recall ever seeing a 45 degree up and to the right like this, without some dip along the way. I don't know whether that is good or bad, but good for today.
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Re: The GOLD scream room
$1700 on Kitco.
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Re: The GOLD scream room
Whoa!
Re: The GOLD scream room
And and stock future and oil futures are absolutely tanking. Going to be another fun, exciting day tomorrow, haha.
Re: The GOLD scream room
Re: The GOLD scream room
Meanwhile, down under....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e6N2oOT ... dex=4&t=0s
(happy I come across the PP nearly 10 years ago!)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e6N2oOT ... dex=4&t=0s
(happy I come across the PP nearly 10 years ago!)
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Re: The GOLD scream room
Back down to up only $3 on the day, at $1676.
Re: The GOLD scream room
Yeah, we've officially hit that public "SELL EVERYTHING!!!" point in the meltdown.
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Re: The GOLD scream room
Re: The GOLD scream room
Money has to go somewhere, and usually in those sell everything panic modes it winds up in bonds.Cortopassi wrote: ↑Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:03 amExcept bonds?