The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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Cortopassi
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Feb 21, 2019 2:25 pm

And yet again, what is it 3/4 years now? Bump against ~$1350 and repelled. Getting old.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Thu Feb 21, 2019 3:29 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Feb 21, 2019 2:25 pm
And yet again, what is it 3/4 years now? Bump against ~$1350 and repelled. Getting old.
To be fair... there was a very large open gap on the open Monday begging to be closed. Since it's rallied 15% from the bottom already in a very short time span, it would make 0 sense for that gap not to get closed. The rally is way too extended and long in the tooth to allow a huge breakaway gap like that. And that's really all that happened today, was the gap just barely got closed. Also, are you sure you really want gold to out-perform? I mean, if gold is out-performing it's not a good sign. Be careful what you wish for, imo.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Feb 21, 2019 3:49 pm

pmward wrote:
Thu Feb 21, 2019 3:29 pm
Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Feb 21, 2019 2:25 pm
And yet again, what is it 3/4 years now? Bump against ~$1350 and repelled. Getting old.
To be fair... there was a very large open gap on the open Monday begging to be closed. Since it's rallied 15% from the bottom already in a very short time span, it would make 0 sense for that gap not to get closed. The rally is way too extended and long in the tooth to allow a huge breakaway gap like that. And that's really all that happened today, was the gap just barely got closed. Also, are you sure you really want gold to out-perform? I mean, if gold is out-performing it's not a good sign. Be careful what you wish for, imo.
Just ONCE I want to rebalance out of gold because it hit my 140% band! :D
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Thu Feb 21, 2019 5:50 pm

pmward wrote:
Thu Feb 21, 2019 3:29 pm
Also, are you sure you really want gold to out-perform? I mean, if gold is out-performing it's not a good sign. Be careful what you wish for, imo.
Yup. I remember either Craig or MediumTex saying the same thing a while ago.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Dieter » Thu Feb 21, 2019 8:43 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Thu Feb 21, 2019 5:50 pm
pmward wrote:
Thu Feb 21, 2019 3:29 pm
Also, are you sure you really want gold to out-perform? I mean, if gold is out-performing it's not a good sign. Be careful what you wish for, imo.
Yup. I remember either Craig or MediumTex saying the same thing a while ago.
I was so close to my gold getting up to a 0% return.... :)
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Fri Feb 22, 2019 4:42 am

Dieter wrote:
Thu Feb 21, 2019 8:43 pm
Kriegsspiel wrote:
Thu Feb 21, 2019 5:50 pm
pmward wrote:
Thu Feb 21, 2019 3:29 pm
Also, are you sure you really want gold to out-perform? I mean, if gold is out-performing it's not a good sign. Be careful what you wish for, imo.
Yup. I remember either Craig or MediumTex saying the same thing a while ago.
I was so close to my gold getting up to a 0% return.... :)
I'm afraid I'm very far from that point. ;)
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona » Tue Feb 26, 2019 2:19 pm

Newmont and Barrick deal: good, bad, other...?

I just wish Barrick sweetens the deal so my few Newmont shares will catch a bid and I can get out of them and get some GLDM. Sounds like they low-balled.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona » Wed Feb 27, 2019 8:07 am

gold cannot catch a bid even though nuclear India and nuclear Pakistan are shooting at each other. I think gold's role as a crisis hedge is vastly overstated or just plain wrong.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Feb 27, 2019 8:16 am

ochotona wrote:
Wed Feb 27, 2019 8:07 am
I think gold's role as a crisis hedge is vastly overstated or just plain wrong.
It looks that way, doesn’t it? Maybe it used to be right and now markets (and people) are more resilient. It’s natural to question gold and the pp as stocks continue to climb- or, whether it’s natural or not, it’s what I do - but no way am I exiting my gold position while it’s down. I plan to let my nieces deal with it.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Feb 27, 2019 8:49 am

I would just sell and be done with it...
Much more relaxing and financially rewarding.
Same applies to LTT’s and the PP as a whole.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Feb 27, 2019 9:04 am

buddtholomew wrote:
Wed Feb 27, 2019 8:49 am
I would just sell and be done with it...
Much more relaxing and financially rewarding.
Same applies to LTT’s and the PP as a whole.
I think you did the right thing for you, but I’m not stressed. (bites nails) 😰 really I’m not. O0
I have about 11% in gold (vp+pp), and I don’t want to buy more to lower the average cost, either. Hanging tight.

Still, I’m only down 10%. Gold’s been down so g**damn long that it looks like up to me.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Wed Feb 27, 2019 10:38 am

ochotona wrote:
Wed Feb 27, 2019 8:07 am
gold cannot catch a bid even though nuclear India and nuclear Pakistan are shooting at each other. I think gold's role as a crisis hedge is vastly overstated or just plain wrong.
HB said gold would catch a bid during a crisis if the dollar was negatively affected by the crisis.

Is that the case here?
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Wed Feb 27, 2019 12:26 pm

Yeah I'm not so sure that situation is going to boost gold for U.S. holders, as gold is always relative to the currency and economy you are in at the moment.

What may benefit gold in the coming years is that debt levels in the U.S. and around the world are just ballooning, and they are only going to get worse as modern monetary theory and socialism inevitably are going to spread. There is no realistic possibility I see of us turning back and not walking off the cliff. Politicians are going to continue to spend globally until they run out of money and people willing to lend to them. I also think that the "trade wars" are a mirage for what is actually a currency war in disguise. Eventually there is going to be a currency crisis. Just like the financial crisis in 2008, I think it's going to be a domino effect that is going to effect the entire world. I don't think it's going to start with us, but likely will start somewhere in Europe then likely spread to Asia. Eventually the dominos will start falling and it will topple us over as well. I just don't see a plausible argument for there not to be a mass global devaluation in the coming years. Even central banks realize this, as they have been quietly building gold reserves like it's going out of style over the last few years. This is not even to mention the issues we have in corporate and personal debt. There's a lot of bills coming due, and we are bound to test the tipping point sooner rather than later. This currency crisis may not happen this year or next, but it's bound to happen sometime in my lifetime. Just knowing that, it's worth holding gold as an insurance policy, because gold will double or even triple damn near overnight in a currency crisis. When this happens, we all will be glad that we got in early and patiently waited, especially if we are holding hard gold as opposed to paper gold.

As an aside on the paper gold topic, I personally believe the paper gold market is what is holding the gold price down right now, as there is more "paper gold" being created and traded than there is gold to actually back it up. I think that when gold does spike next there will be a run on these paper gold holdings and they will fail, further adding to the spike in gold. Those holding physical gold will be the big winners here. Anyway, this is my theory at least. We will see what actually happens.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Wed Feb 27, 2019 3:16 pm

pmward wrote:
Wed Feb 27, 2019 12:26 pm
Yeah I'm not so sure that situation is going to boost gold for U.S. holders, as gold is always relative to the currency and economy you are in at the moment.

What may benefit gold in the coming years is that debt levels in the U.S. and around the world are just ballooning, and they are only going to get worse as modern monetary theory and socialism inevitably are going to spread. There is no realistic possibility I see of us turning back and not walking off the cliff. Politicians are going to continue to spend globally until they run out of money and people willing to lend to them. I also think that the "trade wars" are a mirage for what is actually a currency war in disguise. Eventually there is going to be a currency crisis. Just like the financial crisis in 2008, I think it's going to be a domino effect that is going to effect the entire world. I don't think it's going to start with us, but likely will start somewhere in Europe then likely spread to Asia. Eventually the dominos will start falling and it will topple us over as well. I just don't see a plausible argument for there not to be a mass global devaluation in the coming years. Even central banks realize this, as they have been quietly building gold reserves like it's going out of style over the last few years. This is not even to mention the issues we have in corporate and personal debt. There's a lot of bills coming due, and we are bound to test the tipping point sooner rather than later. This currency crisis may not happen this year or next, but it's bound to happen sometime in my lifetime. Just knowing that, it's worth holding gold as an insurance policy, because gold will double or even triple damn near overnight in a currency crisis. When this happens, we all will be glad that we got in early and patiently waited, especially if we are holding hard gold as opposed to paper gold.

As an aside on the paper gold topic, I personally believe the paper gold market is what is holding the gold price down right now, as there is more "paper gold" being created and traded than there is gold to actually back it up. I think that when gold does spike next there will be a run on these paper gold holdings and they will fail, further adding to the spike in gold. Those holding physical gold will be the big winners here. Anyway, this is my theory at least. We will see what actually happens.
Agreed on the inevitability of a major crisis.

Timing is another matter. I've been holding gold for over 40 years, and although I can't complain about my investment results, I expected the major crisis long ago.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Wed Feb 27, 2019 3:42 pm

Libertarian666 wrote:
Wed Feb 27, 2019 3:16 pm

Agreed on the inevitability of a major crisis.

Timing is another matter. I've been holding gold for over 40 years, and although I can't complain about my investment results, I expected the major crisis long ago.
Agreed. I'm still only 37 years old, so I think it's safe to say it's likely to happen in my lifetime at the least. And if it doesn't, then well I just paid an insurance premium that I never used. There are worse things that could happen to my investments, haha. In the meantime, I've been sleeping very well since I transitioned my portfolio over, and that is worth it in and of itself. Now my luxury problem is something I read MediumTex post in the Bogleheads thread, that I need to find new things to do with the time I used to spend worrying about my investments :o
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by gaddyslapper007 » Wed Feb 27, 2019 4:06 pm

As long as Central banks print money to cover bad debt and buy gold reserves ....gold will still have its place imo. I've always found that interesting about non-gold believers…how they gloss over the fact that banks print funny money (for the people) and buy gold for their reserves!? If central banks move away from gold for its reserves....then yes....that will be the telltale sign the insurance policy wont pay off.

There is no denying the rest of the world is segueing away from US dollar. (Its reserve status has been constantly eroding for last 10 years or so) I'm starting to the believe a full on "flip the switch" catastrophic monetary collapse will not happen though....I lean toward the slow death spiral philosophy that we've seen for the last ~100years. (this reinforced further by MMT and Socialism as of late)
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Wed Feb 27, 2019 4:40 pm

Now my luxury problem is something I read MediumTex post in the Bogleheads thread, that I need to find new things to do with the time I used to spend worrying about my investments :o
History, golf, shooting guns, chess, science, baking, brewing alcohol, exercising... So many interesting things out there. Try picking a couple things to focus on for a few weeks then switching it up.
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by sophie » Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:30 am

pmward wrote:
Wed Feb 27, 2019 12:26 pm
What may benefit gold in the coming years is that debt levels in the U.S. and around the world are just ballooning, and they are only going to get worse as modern monetary theory and socialism inevitably are going to spread. There is no realistic possibility I see of us turning back and not walking off the cliff. Politicians are going to continue to spend globally until they run out of money and people willing to lend to them. I also think that the "trade wars" are a mirage for what is actually a currency war in disguise. Eventually there is going to be a currency crisis. Just like the financial crisis in 2008, I think it's going to be a domino effect that is going to effect the entire world. I don't think it's going to start with us, but likely will start somewhere in Europe then likely spread to Asia. Eventually the dominos will start falling and it will topple us over as well. I just don't see a plausible argument for there not to be a mass global devaluation in the coming years. Even central banks realize this, as they have been quietly building gold reserves like it's going out of style over the last few years. This is not even to mention the issues we have in corporate and personal debt. There's a lot of bills coming due, and we are bound to test the tipping point sooner rather than later. This currency crisis may not happen this year or next, but it's bound to happen sometime in my lifetime. Just knowing that, it's worth holding gold as an insurance policy, because gold will double or even triple damn near overnight in a currency crisis. When this happens, we all will be glad that we got in early and patiently waited, especially if we are holding hard gold as opposed to paper gold.

As an aside on the paper gold topic, I personally believe the paper gold market is what is holding the gold price down right now, as there is more "paper gold" being created and traded than there is gold to actually back it up. I think that when gold does spike next there will be a run on these paper gold holdings and they will fail, further adding to the spike in gold. Those holding physical gold will be the big winners here. Anyway, this is my theory at least. We will see what actually happens.
Interesting analysis!

Can you elaborate more on the comment about gold ETFs having insufficient reserves? I've been wondering for quite a while about the wisdom of trusting them, but they claim to be fully backed up by physical gold.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by gaddyslapper007 » Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:27 am

sophie wrote:
Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:30 am

Can you elaborate more on the comment about gold ETFs having insufficient reserves? I've been wondering for quite a while about the wisdom of trusting them, but they claim to be fully backed up by physical gold.
Perhaps rehypothecation?.....I heard on podcast a while back where this issue was more prevalent before the 08 crash...some assests were theoretically "owned" / lent out by factor of 7X. The Wall Street "expert" said now days maybe a factor of 3X.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/re ... cation.asp
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:46 am

sophie wrote:
Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:30 am
pmward wrote:
Wed Feb 27, 2019 12:26 pm
What may benefit gold in the coming years is that debt levels in the U.S. and around the world are just ballooning, and they are only going to get worse as modern monetary theory and socialism inevitably are going to spread. There is no realistic possibility I see of us turning back and not walking off the cliff. Politicians are going to continue to spend globally until they run out of money and people willing to lend to them. I also think that the "trade wars" are a mirage for what is actually a currency war in disguise. Eventually there is going to be a currency crisis. Just like the financial crisis in 2008, I think it's going to be a domino effect that is going to effect the entire world. I don't think it's going to start with us, but likely will start somewhere in Europe then likely spread to Asia. Eventually the dominos will start falling and it will topple us over as well. I just don't see a plausible argument for there not to be a mass global devaluation in the coming years. Even central banks realize this, as they have been quietly building gold reserves like it's going out of style over the last few years. This is not even to mention the issues we have in corporate and personal debt. There's a lot of bills coming due, and we are bound to test the tipping point sooner rather than later. This currency crisis may not happen this year or next, but it's bound to happen sometime in my lifetime. Just knowing that, it's worth holding gold as an insurance policy, because gold will double or even triple damn near overnight in a currency crisis. When this happens, we all will be glad that we got in early and patiently waited, especially if we are holding hard gold as opposed to paper gold.

As an aside on the paper gold topic, I personally believe the paper gold market is what is holding the gold price down right now, as there is more "paper gold" being created and traded than there is gold to actually back it up. I think that when gold does spike next there will be a run on these paper gold holdings and they will fail, further adding to the spike in gold. Those holding physical gold will be the big winners here. Anyway, this is my theory at least. We will see what actually happens.
Interesting analysis!

Can you elaborate more on the comment about gold ETFs having insufficient reserves? I've been wondering for quite a while about the wisdom of trusting them, but they claim to be fully backed up by physical gold.
I think big gold ETF's are the safest form of paper gold, because like you mentioned they do have large stores of gold. They also have the SEC to deal with. While the ones that honor redemption could experience a run, it shouldn't effect the ETF price too much as redeemed gold shares would be taken out of the float. The biggest risk in those is that if gold really goes through the roof, the ETF fund could choose to cash everyone out and hold or sell the gold for themselves, leaving the share holders that were relying on gold for protection out in the cold. If the U.S. did an overnight devaluation like in the 30's or 70's again, and the ETF companies got whisper of this in advance, I could see them cashing people out in money that was going to be less valuable tomorrow to hold gold that would be more valuable. That would be my only real fear in the major gold ETF's.

What worries me more than ETF's however is a lot of banks, gold dealers, etc essentially sell nothing more than promissory notes. These are more of a promise to fulfill on redemption without the full physical backing. They are taking an uncovered short position, taking your money for nothing now and promising to purchase the gold or pay the difference when/if you redeem. This means there is more gold that is owned and traded than actually exists. I know JP Morgan was rumored to at one point to have had uncovered shorts on gold in quantities greater than the entire supply of the U.S. reserves. They have since covered and are now long both gold and silver, but they are not the only large company that issues uncovered shorts on gold. If we really had a massive run up in gold and everyone went to cash those promissory notes in... well one could imagine what that would do to the price of gold. It would essentially be a short squeeze and send the price up through the stratosphere. I'm sure that at a certain point a lot of the paper gold issuers would choose to default instead of covering their shorts, especially if the price doubles or triples as it would lead to greater than 100% losses.
Last edited by pmward on Thu Feb 28, 2019 12:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:40 am

pmward wrote:
Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:46 am
sophie wrote:
Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:30 am
pmward wrote:
Wed Feb 27, 2019 12:26 pm
What may benefit gold in the coming years is that debt levels in the U.S. and around the world are just ballooning, and they are only going to get worse as modern monetary theory and socialism inevitably are going to spread. There is no realistic possibility I see of us turning back and not walking off the cliff. Politicians are going to continue to spend globally until they run out of money and people willing to lend to them. I also think that the "trade wars" are a mirage for what is actually a currency war in disguise. Eventually there is going to be a currency crisis. Just like the financial crisis in 2008, I think it's going to be a domino effect that is going to effect the entire world. I don't think it's going to start with us, but likely will start somewhere in Europe then likely spread to Asia. Eventually the dominos will start falling and it will topple us over as well. I just don't see a plausible argument for there not to be a mass global devaluation in the coming years. Even central banks realize this, as they have been quietly building gold reserves like it's going out of style over the last few years. This is not even to mention the issues we have in corporate and personal debt. There's a lot of bills coming due, and we are bound to test the tipping point sooner rather than later. This currency crisis may not happen this year or next, but it's bound to happen sometime in my lifetime. Just knowing that, it's worth holding gold as an insurance policy, because gold will double or even triple damn near overnight in a currency crisis. When this happens, we all will be glad that we got in early and patiently waited, especially if we are holding hard gold as opposed to paper gold.

As an aside on the paper gold topic, I personally believe the paper gold market is what is holding the gold price down right now, as there is more "paper gold" being created and traded than there is gold to actually back it up. I think that when gold does spike next there will be a run on these paper gold holdings and they will fail, further adding to the spike in gold. Those holding physical gold will be the big winners here. Anyway, this is my theory at least. We will see what actually happens.
Interesting analysis!

Can you elaborate more on the comment about gold ETFs having insufficient reserves? I've been wondering for quite a while about the wisdom of trusting them, but they claim to be fully backed up by physical gold.
I think big gold ETF's are the safest form of paper gold, because like you mentioned they do have large stores of gold. They also have the SEC to deal with. While the ones that honor redemption could experience a run, it shouldn't effect the ETF price too much as redeemed gold shares would be taken out of the float. The biggest risk in those is that if gold really goes through the roof, the ETF fund could choose to cash everyone out and hold or sell the gold for themselves, leaving the share holders that were relying on gold for protection out in the cold.

What worries me more than ETF's however is a lot of banks, gold dealers, etc essentially sell nothing more than promissory notes. These are more of a promise to fulfill on redemption without the full physical backing. They are taking an uncovered short position, taking your money for nothing now and promising to purchase the gold or pay the difference when/if you redeem. This means there is more gold that is owned and traded than actually exists. I know JP Morgan was rumored to at one point to have had uncovered shorts on gold in quantities greater than the entire supply of the U.S. reserves. They have since covered and are now long both gold and silver, but they are not the only large company that issues uncovered shorts on gold. If we really had a massive run up in gold and everyone went to cash those promissory notes in... well one could imagine what that would do to the price of gold. It would essentially be a short squeeze and send the price up through the stratosphere. I'm sure that at a certain point a lot of the paper gold issuers would choose to default instead of covering their shorts, especially if the price doubles or triples as it would lead to greater than 100% losses.
This is why I like the Texas Bullion Depository. They send you pictures of your actual holdings as they are checked into the vault, and will provide serial numbers for bars on request if there are too many to show clearly in the pictures.

No paper gold there!
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:55 am

Libertarian666 wrote:
Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:40 am

This is why I like the Texas Bullion Depository. They send you pictures of your actual holdings as they are checked into the vault, and will provide serial numbers for bars on request if there are too many to show clearly in the pictures.

No paper gold there!
What are their prices and fees like?
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Thu Feb 28, 2019 11:18 am

You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Thu Feb 28, 2019 11:20 am

pmward wrote:
Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:55 am
Libertarian666 wrote:
Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:40 am

This is why I like the Texas Bullion Depository. They send you pictures of your actual holdings as they are checked into the vault, and will provide serial numbers for bars on request if there are too many to show clearly in the pictures.

No paper gold there!
What are their prices and fees like?
Basically 50 basis points a year with a minimum of $25/quarter.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Thu Feb 28, 2019 5:29 pm

MangoMan wrote:
Thu Feb 28, 2019 1:00 pm
Libertarian666 wrote:
Thu Feb 28, 2019 11:20 am
pmward wrote:
Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:55 am


What are their prices and fees like?
Basically 50 basis points a year with a minimum of $25/quarter.
Plus the ridiculous bid/ask spread on physical gold.
Currently about 4% on Eagles, less on some bars, if you have a wholesale account anyway.

And if you hold for 10 years, you can divide that by 10 per year, obviously.
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