Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio
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Cortopassi
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by Cortopassi » Mon Dec 11, 2017 8:03 pm
barrett wrote:I think gold going absolutely nowhere
for long periods when stocks are on fire is precisely one of the deals you make with yourself when you set up a PP. In very general terms gold carried a PP in the 1970s and 2000s and has just been a total non-contributor in the 1980s, 1990s and the current decade. Stocks stunk up the joint in the 1970s and 2000s. These are
supposed to be assets with low correlations, right? I think it's just really hard to accept that one is going to be holding a lousy performer at any given time, which is really at the heart of this thread. Most investors are sort of OK when stocks are doing poorly because of the commiseration factor.
Did anyone else on here read this article of Tyler's?
https://portfoliocharts.com/2017/11/20/ ... -investor/
My favorite part is, "When other portfolios are doing extremely well, you are happy for those investors but feel no envy because you are thankful that your own portfolio consistently meets your financial needs just fine."
The PP is designed to be a slow upward grind.
Barrett, that is almost where I am at. Great explanation. I am again seeing virtually every blogger out there negative on gold, many talking about bitcoin. I suspect we are close to a bottom.
98% of the time gold's price action doesn't bother me. 2% still does. Was flipped not too long ago.
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Libertarian666
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by Libertarian666 » Mon Dec 11, 2017 11:56 pm
Cortopassi wrote:barrett wrote:I think gold going absolutely nowhere
for long periods when stocks are on fire is precisely one of the deals you make with yourself when you set up a PP. In very general terms gold carried a PP in the 1970s and 2000s and has just been a total non-contributor in the 1980s, 1990s and the current decade. Stocks stunk up the joint in the 1970s and 2000s. These are
supposed to be assets with low correlations, right? I think it's just really hard to accept that one is going to be holding a lousy performer at any given time, which is really at the heart of this thread. Most investors are sort of OK when stocks are doing poorly because of the commiseration factor.
Did anyone else on here read this article of Tyler's?
https://portfoliocharts.com/2017/11/20/ ... -investor/
My favorite part is, "When other portfolios are doing extremely well, you are happy for those investors but feel no envy because you are thankful that your own portfolio consistently meets your financial needs just fine."
The PP is designed to be a slow upward grind.
Barrett, that is almost where I am at. Great explanation. I am again seeing virtually every blogger out there negative on gold, many talking about bitcoin. I suspect we are close to a bottom.
98% of the time gold's price action doesn't bother me. 2% still does. Was flipped not too long ago.
The bottom was about two years ago. We are up almost $200 from that point.
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Libertarian666
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by Libertarian666 » Tue Dec 12, 2017 9:05 am
Cortopassi wrote:tech,
A local bottom for the painful last few weeks...
You should stop looking at the price if:
1. You aren't going to do anything about it; and
2. It bothers you when it goes down.
How about if we have a special thread here where people can post when it goes up? Then you won't have to worry about missing out!
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Cortopassi
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by Cortopassi » Tue Dec 12, 2017 9:46 am
Libertarian666 wrote:Cortopassi wrote:tech,
A local bottom for the painful last few weeks...
You should stop looking at the price if:
1. You aren't going to do anything about it; and
2. It bothers you when it goes down.
How about if we have a special thread here where people can post when it goes up? Then you won't have to worry about missing out!
I am hoping for sub 1200 at this point, hopefully right around Jan 1. I want weak hands flushed out and I want to rebalance to add more gold and silver and less stocks. All seemingly going in the right direction right now.
It doesn't bother me anymore. Just another asset.
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buddtholomew
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by buddtholomew » Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:07 am
Gold, for the money you can afford to lose.
That’s my new quote.
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Don
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by Don » Tue Dec 12, 2017 1:57 pm
And this is the time of year when gold is historically stronger. Look out below?
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ochotona
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by ochotona » Tue Dec 12, 2017 4:25 pm
Don wrote:And this is the time of year when gold is historically stronger. Look out below?
But it hit lows in very late 2015 and 2016, why not late 2017?
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ochotona
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by ochotona » Sat Dec 16, 2017 5:48 pm
More scheming...
I sold IAU on 11/3/17 at a profit when it was crashing. Now I have the chance to re-buy it below where I sold it. That's a gift. I just put in a buy stop-limit so it doesn't get away from me. And if it keeps on declining, the stop won't get triggered, and I'll buy it lower still at some future date. Eventually, as I have more cash, I'll swap it for molecular gold. It really feels better to have the metal. Because it's harder to sell, so you don't.
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buddtholomew
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by buddtholomew » Sat Dec 16, 2017 5:51 pm
What about the coin at 1260...forgot that one eh?
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Libertarian666
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by Libertarian666 » Sat Dec 16, 2017 6:27 pm
ochotona wrote:More scheming...
I sold IAU on 11/3/17 at a profit when it was crashing. Now I have the chance to re-buy it below where I sold it. That's a gift. I just put in a buy stop-limit so it doesn't get away from me. And if it keeps on declining, the stop won't get triggered, and I'll buy it lower still at some future date. Eventually, as I have more cash, I'll swap it for molecular gold. It really feels better to have the metal. Because it's harder to sell, so you don't.
Molecular gold? Wow, that sounds very... technological!
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Libertarian666
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by Libertarian666 » Sat Dec 16, 2017 6:28 pm
buddtholomew wrote:What about the coin at 1260...forgot that one eh?
Wow, a $5 loss? That's the end of his plan!
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buddtholomew
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by buddtholomew » Sat Dec 16, 2017 6:56 pm
Libertarian666 wrote:buddtholomew wrote:What about the coin at 1260...forgot that one eh?
Wow, a $5 loss? That's the end of his plan!
Selective memory is all.
Hey tech, happy Saturday.
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dualstow
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by dualstow » Sat Dec 16, 2017 7:31 pm
Libertarian666 wrote:ochotona wrote:Eventually, as I have more cash, I'll swap it for molecular gold.
Molecular gold? Wow, that sounds very... technological!
Elemental?
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
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Libertarian666
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by Libertarian666 » Sat Dec 16, 2017 8:32 pm
buddtholomew wrote:Libertarian666 wrote:buddtholomew wrote:What about the coin at 1260...forgot that one eh?
Wow, a $5 loss? That's the end of his plan!
Selective memory is all.
Hey tech, happy Saturday.
Same to you!
BTW, here's one of my recent acquisitions:
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ochotona
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by ochotona » Sat Dec 16, 2017 11:10 pm
buddtholomew wrote:What about the coin at 1260...forgot that one eh?
See, that prove my point. It's in my possession, I forgot about it. But the ETFs are like video games, they tempt you to buy or sell.
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eufo
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by eufo » Sun Dec 17, 2017 11:30 am
ochotona wrote:buddtholomew wrote:What about the coin at 1260...forgot that one eh?
See, that prove my point. It's in my possession, I forgot about it. But the ETFs are like video games, they tempt you to buy or sell.
This is an interesting, although expected, phenomenon. The less liquid an item is, the less likely we are to be traders. We have been able to liquify objects through our markets that normally would be super illiquid (and the underlying assets truly are, regardless of how many ETFs we have). Gold is fairly liquid for a real asset. Land, is not. But we can buy and sell REITs all day.
It's a weird kind of gamification we have added to "investing".
Don't agree with me too strongly or I'm going to change my mind
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dualstow
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by dualstow » Sun Dec 17, 2017 10:23 pm
Guess I'm not anon anymore.
j/k Not me.
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ochotona
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by ochotona » Thu Dec 21, 2017 5:52 pm
Some dumped shares of SGOL right at market close! Down 0.42%, but gold was up. Talk about huge tracking error. Crazy nuts.
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eufo
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by eufo » Thu Dec 21, 2017 6:45 pm
ochotona wrote:Some dumped shares of SGOL right at market close! Down 0.42%, but gold was up. Talk about huge tracking error. Crazy nuts.
Yeah, it seems to take turns that GLD and IAU do not. It'll rebound tomorrow (relatively).
Don't agree with me too strongly or I'm going to change my mind
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whatchamacallit
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by whatchamacallit » Tue Dec 26, 2017 3:38 pm
For some reason, the feeling in the air today has me really liking gold as a safe haven. It is not perfect but I can't think of a better worldly insurance policy.
I was really hating it just a month or so ago.
Edit:
Of course this means that it is about to really tank hard. So probably a good time to sell.
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farjean2
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by farjean2 » Tue Dec 26, 2017 4:25 pm
whatchamacallit wrote:For some reason, the feeling in the air today has me really liking gold as a safe haven. It is not perfect but I can't think of a better worldly insurance policy.
I was really hating it just a month or so ago.
Edit:
Of course this means that it is about to really tank hard. So probably a good time to sell.
No offense intended to anyone but what does the "feeling in the air today" have to do with the permanent portfolio? Or whatever it was you were hating a month ago for that matter?
I read Harry Browne's book and also Craig and MT's and my impression was that the whole point of the portfolio was that it had a track record of doing well over the long haul and it would therefore free up your time and energy for other pursuits. I could be wrong but it seems to me that if you are going to keep second guessing and checking in every day then maybe this isn't the portfolio for you.
Just sayin'. Maybe some people need to make a New Years resolution not to check so often.
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ochotona
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by ochotona » Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:06 pm
It's the scream room let people let off steam
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ochotona
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by ochotona » Tue Dec 26, 2017 7:57 pm
ochotona wrote:It's the scream room let people let off steam
It's interesting that every December now, 2015, 2016, and now 2017 we make higher lows. Maybe the bottom is in, December 2015. I said maybe.