The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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ochotona
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona » Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:46 pm

dualstow wrote:Gold < 1250

The Salvation Army lady dumped my krugerrand right out of her bucket.
j/k O0
Gold is Poor Man's Bitcoin
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buddtholomew
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Mon Dec 11, 2017 3:28 pm

Gold = damaged goods.
Thank god for the increased equity exposure else I would feel like a total lemming owning this useless piece of metal. It’s certainly lost its luster for me, if it had any to begin with in the first place.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Dec 11, 2017 3:58 pm

buddtholomew wrote:Gold = damaged goods.
Thank god for the increased equity exposure else I would feel like a total lemming owning this useless piece of metal. It’s certainly lost its luster for me, if it had any to begin with in the first place.
A lot of gold analysts out there are saying (maybe a broken record) that once gold tags the 1200-1220 range, (in one case 1124), then it will begin a multiyear rise, along with the dollar continuing down.

I barely looked today. I don't care anymore, which helps. At this point, I will rebalance to targets on Jan 1, so barring some huge Dec. move, I will be adding gold and silver and selling some stocks, which feels right. TLT as a 25% holding is at 24.98%, so as the metals drop and stocks rise, bonds have stayed flat percentage-wise.
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Hal
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Hal » Mon Dec 11, 2017 5:26 pm

buddtholomew wrote:Gold = damaged goods.
Thank god for the increased equity exposure else I would feel like a total lemming owning this useless piece of metal. It’s certainly lost its luster for me, if it had any to begin with in the first place.
Ok, now I am curious....

Whats your thoughts on why Central Banks hold this "piece of metal" ?

Hal

https://www.forbes.com/sites/afontevecc ... 75f1cb52c4
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Mon Dec 11, 2017 5:37 pm

Hal wrote:
buddtholomew wrote:Gold = damaged goods.
Thank god for the increased equity exposure else I would feel like a total lemming owning this useless piece of metal. It’s certainly lost its luster for me, if it had any to begin with in the first place.
Ok, now I am curious....

Whats your thoughts on why Central Banks hold this "piece of metal" ?

Hal

https://www.forbes.com/sites/afontevecc ... 75f1cb52c4
Central banks have an infinite time frame whereas my life is limited. Gold may at some time have relevance again but will it in my lifetime?
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Hal » Mon Dec 11, 2017 5:46 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Hal wrote:
buddtholomew wrote:Gold = damaged goods.
Thank god for the increased equity exposure else I would feel like a total lemming owning this useless piece of metal. It’s certainly lost its luster for me, if it had any to begin with in the first place.
Ok, now I am curious....

Whats your thoughts on why Central Banks hold this "piece of metal" ?

Hal

https://www.forbes.com/sites/afontevecc ... 75f1cb52c4
Central banks have an infinite time frame whereas my life is limited. Gold may at some time have relevance again but will it in my lifetime?
Thanks for your thoughts.

Relevance to the Central Banks - Store of Wealth, or an investment or ...... ?

Relevance to yourself is...... ?

I totally understand your feelings about the time frame. Recently found a small bar of silver in the back of the garage still with the 1980's receipt. Roughly 37 years and still haven't broken even !
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Mon Dec 11, 2017 5:47 pm

buddtholomew wrote:Gold = damaged goods.
Thank god for the increased equity exposure else I would feel like a total lemming owning this useless piece of metal. It’s certainly lost its luster for me, if it had any to begin with in the first place.
So when are you selling?
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Mon Dec 11, 2017 5:47 pm

ochotona wrote:
dualstow wrote:Gold < 1250

The Salvation Army lady dumped my krugerrand right out of her bucket.
j/k O0
Gold is Poor Man's Bitcoin
No, that would be Beanie Babies.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Mon Dec 11, 2017 5:51 pm

Libertarian666 wrote:
buddtholomew wrote:Gold = damaged goods.
Thank god for the increased equity exposure else I would feel like a total lemming owning this useless piece of metal. It’s certainly lost its luster for me, if it had any to begin with in the first place.
So when are you selling?
I’m not selling until I recognize a profit and only to rebalance. Anything else would require me to abandon the PP.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona » Mon Dec 11, 2017 6:44 pm

buddtholomew wrote:Gold = damaged goods.
Thank god for the increased equity exposure else I would feel like a total lemming owning this useless piece of metal. It’s certainly lost its luster for me, if it had any to begin with in the first place.
I remember everyone felt the same about equities in 1982.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Mon Dec 11, 2017 7:33 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Libertarian666 wrote:
buddtholomew wrote:Gold = damaged goods.
Thank god for the increased equity exposure else I would feel like a total lemming owning this useless piece of metal. It’s certainly lost its luster for me, if it had any to begin with in the first place.
So when are you selling?
I’m not selling until I recognize a profit and only to rebalance. Anything else would require me to abandon the PP.
Yes, you would have to abandon the PP.

But why do you want to keep the PP if you hate gold so much? I would never invest in a way that would require me to hold a significant quantity of an investment that gives me heartburn.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by barrett » Mon Dec 11, 2017 7:40 pm

I think gold going absolutely nowhere for long periods when stocks are on fire is precisely one of the deals you make with yourself when you set up a PP. In very general terms gold carried a PP in the 1970s and 2000s and has just been a total non-contributor in the 1980s, 1990s and the current decade. Stocks stunk up the joint in the 1970s and 2000s. These are supposed to be assets with low correlations, right? I think it's just really hard to accept that one is going to be holding a lousy performer at any given time, which is really at the heart of this thread. Most investors are sort of OK when stocks are doing poorly because of the commiseration factor.

Did anyone else on here read this article of Tyler's?

https://portfoliocharts.com/2017/11/20/ ... -investor/

My favorite part is, "When other portfolios are doing extremely well, you are happy for those investors but feel no envy because you are thankful that your own portfolio consistently meets your financial needs just fine."

The PP is designed to be a slow upward grind.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Dec 11, 2017 8:03 pm

barrett wrote:I think gold going absolutely nowhere for long periods when stocks are on fire is precisely one of the deals you make with yourself when you set up a PP. In very general terms gold carried a PP in the 1970s and 2000s and has just been a total non-contributor in the 1980s, 1990s and the current decade. Stocks stunk up the joint in the 1970s and 2000s. These are supposed to be assets with low correlations, right? I think it's just really hard to accept that one is going to be holding a lousy performer at any given time, which is really at the heart of this thread. Most investors are sort of OK when stocks are doing poorly because of the commiseration factor.

Did anyone else on here read this article of Tyler's?

https://portfoliocharts.com/2017/11/20/ ... -investor/

My favorite part is, "When other portfolios are doing extremely well, you are happy for those investors but feel no envy because you are thankful that your own portfolio consistently meets your financial needs just fine."

The PP is designed to be a slow upward grind.
Barrett, that is almost where I am at. Great explanation. I am again seeing virtually every blogger out there negative on gold, many talking about bitcoin. I suspect we are close to a bottom.

98% of the time gold's price action doesn't bother me. 2% still does. Was flipped not too long ago.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Mon Dec 11, 2017 11:56 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
barrett wrote:I think gold going absolutely nowhere for long periods when stocks are on fire is precisely one of the deals you make with yourself when you set up a PP. In very general terms gold carried a PP in the 1970s and 2000s and has just been a total non-contributor in the 1980s, 1990s and the current decade. Stocks stunk up the joint in the 1970s and 2000s. These are supposed to be assets with low correlations, right? I think it's just really hard to accept that one is going to be holding a lousy performer at any given time, which is really at the heart of this thread. Most investors are sort of OK when stocks are doing poorly because of the commiseration factor.

Did anyone else on here read this article of Tyler's?

https://portfoliocharts.com/2017/11/20/ ... -investor/

My favorite part is, "When other portfolios are doing extremely well, you are happy for those investors but feel no envy because you are thankful that your own portfolio consistently meets your financial needs just fine."

The PP is designed to be a slow upward grind.
Barrett, that is almost where I am at. Great explanation. I am again seeing virtually every blogger out there negative on gold, many talking about bitcoin. I suspect we are close to a bottom.

98% of the time gold's price action doesn't bother me. 2% still does. Was flipped not too long ago.
The bottom was about two years ago. We are up almost $200 from that point.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Dec 12, 2017 7:12 am

tech,

A local bottom for the painful last few weeks...
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Tue Dec 12, 2017 9:05 am

Cortopassi wrote:tech,

A local bottom for the painful last few weeks...
You should stop looking at the price if:

1. You aren't going to do anything about it; and
2. It bothers you when it goes down.

How about if we have a special thread here where people can post when it goes up? Then you won't have to worry about missing out! :D
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Dec 12, 2017 9:46 am

Libertarian666 wrote:
Cortopassi wrote:tech,

A local bottom for the painful last few weeks...
You should stop looking at the price if:

1. You aren't going to do anything about it; and
2. It bothers you when it goes down.

How about if we have a special thread here where people can post when it goes up? Then you won't have to worry about missing out! :D
I am hoping for sub 1200 at this point, hopefully right around Jan 1. I want weak hands flushed out and I want to rebalance to add more gold and silver and less stocks. All seemingly going in the right direction right now.

It doesn't bother me anymore. Just another asset.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:07 am

Gold, for the money you can afford to lose.
That’s my new quote.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Don » Tue Dec 12, 2017 1:57 pm

And this is the time of year when gold is historically stronger. Look out below?
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona » Tue Dec 12, 2017 4:25 pm

Don wrote:And this is the time of year when gold is historically stronger. Look out below?
But it hit lows in very late 2015 and 2016, why not late 2017?
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona » Sat Dec 16, 2017 5:48 pm

More scheming...

I sold IAU on 11/3/17 at a profit when it was crashing. Now I have the chance to re-buy it below where I sold it. That's a gift. I just put in a buy stop-limit so it doesn't get away from me. And if it keeps on declining, the stop won't get triggered, and I'll buy it lower still at some future date. Eventually, as I have more cash, I'll swap it for molecular gold. It really feels better to have the metal. Because it's harder to sell, so you don't.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Sat Dec 16, 2017 5:51 pm

What about the coin at 1260...forgot that one eh?
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Sat Dec 16, 2017 6:27 pm

ochotona wrote:More scheming...

I sold IAU on 11/3/17 at a profit when it was crashing. Now I have the chance to re-buy it below where I sold it. That's a gift. I just put in a buy stop-limit so it doesn't get away from me. And if it keeps on declining, the stop won't get triggered, and I'll buy it lower still at some future date. Eventually, as I have more cash, I'll swap it for molecular gold. It really feels better to have the metal. Because it's harder to sell, so you don't.
Molecular gold? Wow, that sounds very... technological! :D
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Sat Dec 16, 2017 6:28 pm

buddtholomew wrote:What about the coin at 1260...forgot that one eh?
Wow, a $5 loss? That's the end of his plan!
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Sat Dec 16, 2017 6:56 pm

Libertarian666 wrote:
buddtholomew wrote:What about the coin at 1260...forgot that one eh?
Wow, a $5 loss? That's the end of his plan!
Selective memory is all.
Hey tech, happy Saturday.
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