The GOLD scream room

[ochotona]

It's the scream room let people let off steam

It's interesting that every December now, 2015, 2016, and now 2017 we make higher lows. Maybe the bottom is in, December 2015. I said maybe.

[Libertarian666]

It's the scream room let people let off steam

It's interesting that every December now, 2015, 2016, and now 2017 we make higher lows. Maybe the bottom is in, December 2015. I said maybe.

I think it is.

But I advise no one to act on my opinion. I have terrible timing.

[Cortopassi]

For some reason, the feeling in the air today has me really liking gold as a safe haven. It is not perfect but I can't think of a better worldly insurance policy.

I was really hating it just a month or so ago.

Edit:
Of course this means that it is about to really tank hard. So probably a good time to sell.

No offense intended to anyone but what does the "feeling in the air today" have to do with the permanent portfolio? Or whatever it was you were hating a month ago for that matter?

I read Harry Browne's book and also Craig and MT's and my impression was that the whole point of the portfolio was that it had a track record of doing well over the long haul and it would therefore free up your time and energy for other pursuits. I could be wrong but it seems to me that if you are going to keep second guessing and checking in every day then maybe this isn't the portfolio for you.

Just sayin'. Maybe some people need to make a New Years resolution not to check so often.

It's something about gold. Shiny. Mesmerizing. Real, in your hands. Elicits more emotion. But I agree, I have been checking the PP much less lately, and guess what, it just keeps on chugging without me looking 8 times a day!

[dualstow]

It's the scream room let people let off steam

The Gold Steam Room, further down the hall.

[Libertarian666]

Don't look now, but gold is over $1300 at the moment. That's up about $150 for 2017, for about a 13% increase for the year.

Sure, the stock market has done even better, about 20% as measured by the S&P 500 excluding dividends, so probably around 22% including them.

T-bonds seem to be up about 8% YTD on a total return basis.

If we assume that cash has had a yield of 1% this year, the HBPP should be up roughly 11% for the year.

Not too shabby, right?

[Cortopassi]

Not shabby at all. A good year. I'll take 10 more of these please...

Happy New Year!

[Libertarian666]

At the present rate of increase YTD, compounded daily, gold will be at $3800 by the end of this year!

[PP67]

And at this rate I will break even by April 1st... (No kidding!)

[Cortopassi]

At the present rate of increase YTD, compounded daily, gold will be at $3800 by the end of this year!

It was supposed to wait until I could rebalance my IRA contributions into it, dammit!

[ochotona]

Someone is trying to beat gold down this afternoon.

[buddtholomew]

The latest FED minutes were released and gold dropped like a ton of gold. Rebounded nicely.

[dualstow]

Do I hear 1350?
hey-oooooooohhhh!!

[Cortopassi]

Do I hear 1350?
hey-oooooooohhhh!!

We are here once again, My physical gold return since I started buying in 2008 is dead even (sigh...)

[Libertarian666]

Do I hear 1350?
hey-oooooooohhhh!!

We are here once again, My physical gold return since I started buying in 2008 is dead even (sigh...)

I really don't want gold to take off right now, as I'm going to be buying quite a bit.

Probably a fair amount will be paper gold like IAU because I expect a big stock market drop after which I will establish something more like a 4x25 PP, and physical is too inconvenient and expensive in that situation. I'm certainly not buying bonds or stocks right here.

[ochotona]

Do I hear 1350?
hey-oooooooohhhh!!

We are here once again, My physical gold return since I started buying in 2008 is dead even (sigh...)

If it takes a big dive from here, do look into taking a tax loss and rebuying it. See if you can cover the cost of re-acquisition with the tax loss.

[dualstow]

When you do buy stocks, Libertarian666, will it be your first time?

...
I really don't want gold to take off right now, as I'm going to be buying quite a bit.

Probably a fair amount will be paper gold like IAU because I expect a big stock market drop after which I will establish something more like a 4x25 PP, and physical is too inconvenient and expensive in that situation. I'm certainly not buying bonds or stocks right here.

[Libertarian666]

When you do buy stocks, Libertarian666, will it be your first time?

...
I really don't want gold to take off right now, as I'm going to be buying quite a bit.

Probably a fair amount will be paper gold like IAU because I expect a big stock market drop after which I will establish something more like a 4x25 PP, and physical is too inconvenient and expensive in that situation. I'm certainly not buying bonds or stocks right here.

No, I ran a standard 4x25 PP during the 1990's.

[boglerdude]

whats your stock buying trigger and how long will you wait...

[Libertarian666]

whats your stock buying trigger and how long will you wait...

I haven't developed a detailed plan yet because I don't have the cash yet.

My general plan is to try to capitalize on a panic like 2008 in stocks and bonds, which I will be able to do without tax consequences because the funds are in a retirement account.

If it never happens, then I'll be "stuck" with gold, which is fine with me.

[ochotona]

https://jimrickards.blogspot.com/2018/0 ... y.html?m=1

[Libertarian666]

https://jimrickards.blogspot.com/2018/0 ... y.html?m=1

Sounds reasonable, but of course timing is always very difficult.

[buddtholomew]

Gold is useless and the PP has been very disappointing.
If stocks continue to fall I am switching to a BH portfolio.
This is what we have been waiting for and the PP declines like everything else. Sad but true.

[Cortopassi]

Deleveraging? Selling gold to cover margin calls? Manipulation? Locusts?

Here's the problem. Most no one still knows about actually owning gold as an investment. I heard, on the radio this morning, "with interest rates rising and stocks falling, where are there alternative places to invest?" I shit you not, the answer that came out of whoever was talking was "How about Bitcoin?"

Gold is off the radar for the majority. I haven't heard the gold price stated on the radio reports in a long time.

It is still the only asset positive for 2018.

[buddtholomew]

Perhaps few investors own gold since it doesn’t offer the safety aspects we expect. The portfolio dropped like a rock, where was gold? Nowhere.

[Libertarian666]

Gold is useless and the PP has been very disappointing.
If stocks continue to fall I am switching to a BH portfolio.
This is what we have been waiting for and the PP declines like everything else. Sad but true.

By all means, go right ahead and switch to a BH portfolio.

You'll be back as soon as we have another 2008-2009, with a lot less money.