The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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pmward
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Thu Sep 05, 2019 11:20 am

ochotona wrote:
Thu Sep 05, 2019 9:40 am
Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Sep 05, 2019 8:17 am
Once again, all is right with the world, US and China are going to meet...Groundhog Day.
Gold and long Treasuries will be under assault for a while...
"Assault" might be a bit extreme of a term. Both assets are due for a consolidation. This doesn't mean the long term uptrend is in danger for either. As we speak, even though both are having an ugly day, there is still 0 technical damage done to either chart. I don't see any need to provoke fear about both assets right now.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by boglerdude » Thu Sep 05, 2019 11:16 pm

I didnt read the article, but increasing non-monetary use of gold might screw with the PP philosophy?
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona » Fri Sep 06, 2019 4:55 am

I keep having purely good luck. Sold my Newmont Goldcorp and SIVR out of my HSA a few days ago, because am moving the HSA, but now prices are down, so I could rebuy at lower levels. Please don't recover before the cash moves over to Fidelity...
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Fri Sep 06, 2019 8:10 am

ochotona wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 4:55 am
I keep having purely good luck. Sold my Newmont Goldcorp and SIVR out of my HSA a few days ago, because am moving the HSA, but now prices are down, so I could rebuy at lower levels. Please don't recover before the cash moves over to Fidelity...
*Could* or will? This was always my dilemma.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ad Orientem » Sun Sep 08, 2019 10:55 pm

‘Gold is the way to go’ as interest rates fall, says Mark Mobius
Mark Mobius, the founding partner of Mobius Capital Partners, recommends that investors hold 10% of their portfolios in physical gold, and invest the rest in dividend yielding equities.
In the first half of this year, central banks bought 374 metric tons of gold, according to the World Gold Council. That was the largest net increase for the first half of the year since at least 2000.
China’s central has been adding to its gold reserves for eight straight months since December, scooping up another 10 metric tons of the yellow metal in July, according to data from the People’s Bank of China.

From here...
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/09/mark-mo ... rates.html
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Mon Sep 09, 2019 1:19 am

A3B56EEF-9A4C-46C5-9A22-3DDE7B7388B0.jpeg
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ad Orientem » Mon Sep 09, 2019 11:53 pm

Gold has dipped below $1500 oz and silver has fallen below $18 oz. in overnight trading.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Sep 12, 2019 9:00 am

Gold is quite volatile!
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Sep 12, 2019 11:49 am

Well, that didn't last long.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ad Orientem » Sun Sep 15, 2019 4:39 pm

Anyone buying physical metals over the weekend in response to recent events in the Middle East? I came close at least three times but held back.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:27 pm

Ad Orientem wrote:
Sun Sep 15, 2019 4:39 pm
Anyone buying physical metals over the weekend in response to recent events in the Middle East? I came close at least three times but held back.
I would buy at 1300/oz. That has nothing to do with analysis (although you all know I’m a huge fan), but it would be a good spot for lowering my avg cost.

Hoping to be rid of my BP shares on Monday, but it probably won’t happen. KSA seems to have everything under control.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Sep 16, 2019 7:58 am

dualstow wrote:
Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:27 pm
Ad Orientem wrote:
Sun Sep 15, 2019 4:39 pm
Anyone buying physical metals over the weekend in response to recent events in the Middle East? I came close at least three times but held back.
I would buy at 1300/oz. That has nothing to do with analysis (although you all know I’m a huge fan), but it would be a good spot for lowering my avg cost.

Hoping to be rid of my BP shares on Monday, but it probably won’t happen. KSA seems to have everything under control.
If I (we?) have learned anything with gold over the past few years is that it reacts quickly to these types of world events, and reacts just as quickly back down. Not looking to day trade here! If gold hasn't hit bands or it's not my yearly rebalance, I am not trading. But that's me.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona » Sun Sep 22, 2019 4:51 pm

Newmont plans for success at a $900 gold price.

https://youtu.be/d7wTjo4avCE
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by boglerdude » Mon Sep 23, 2019 2:17 am

Wouldnt gold work better as money if there were no mining? Its supposed to be a stable benchmark against which to price everything else
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Mon Sep 23, 2019 7:19 am

ochotona wrote:
Sun Sep 22, 2019 4:51 pm
Newmont plans for success at a $900 gold price.

https://youtu.be/d7wTjo4avCE
The other day I read
Many companies, including the world’s largest gold miner, Newmont Goldcorp Corp., say they will only approve new projects if they can make money with gold at $1,200, about 20% below where the metal currently trades.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-gold-pr ... 1569144601
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Mon Sep 23, 2019 9:04 am

boglerdude wrote:
Mon Sep 23, 2019 2:17 am
Wouldnt gold work better as money if there were no mining? Its supposed to be a stable benchmark against which to price everything else
Maybe, but mining output adds only a few percent of total stocks every year, and that is very hard to increase.
Fiat money, on the other hand, can be increased in amount with almost no effort, which makes it very poor money.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona » Wed Oct 02, 2019 10:01 am

ochotona wrote:
Wed Oct 02, 2019 5:45 am
Firms offering no commissions on trading:

Charles Schwab (announced 10/1/19)
TD Ameritrade (announced 10/2/19, effective 10/3/19)
Interactive Brokers (the IBKR-Lite tier)

Now you can buy whichever gold ETF you want, without concerns about fees. Probably lots of people will start buying AAAU now.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Nov 07, 2019 12:47 pm

holy volatility, Batman
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Nov 07, 2019 1:15 pm

Anyone read/hear anything that's slamming gold and bonds today? Everyone will be putting 100% of their money in the stock market forever or something like that? No risk 25% a year investing?
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Nov 07, 2019 3:10 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2019 1:15 pm
Anyone read/hear anything that's slamming gold and bonds today? Everyone will be putting 100% of their money in the stock market forever or something like that? No risk 25% a year investing?
WSJ says
In Europe, negative yields on some long-term government bonds—which had alarmed investors when they proliferated earlier in the year—faded amid evidence that easier monetary policy and potentially constructive political developments may have helped the world’s biggest economies dodge a major growth slowdown.
...
Hopes of an initial trade deal between the U.S. and China this week help the outlook for Germany’s export-dependant economy—the eurozone’s largest—in particular, investors say.
WSJ paywalled - https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-wave-o ... 1573140838

So, I guess- trade tensions easing, bond yields surging.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Tortoise » Thu Nov 07, 2019 3:58 pm

Yup, it looks like there were public announcements today by both Chinese and American officials that the tariffs on each other's goods would be rolled back in phases if a trade deal is made.

My guess is that that news was the main driver of the sharp drop in gold and LTTs today.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by jacksonm2 » Thu Nov 07, 2019 4:37 pm

dualstow wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2019 3:10 pm
Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2019 1:15 pm
Anyone read/hear anything that's slamming gold and bonds today? Everyone will be putting 100% of their money in the stock market forever or something like that? No risk 25% a year investing?
WSJ says
In Europe, negative yields on some long-term government bonds—which had alarmed investors when they proliferated earlier in the year—faded amid evidence that easier monetary policy and potentially constructive political developments may have helped the world’s biggest economies dodge a major growth slowdown.
...
Hopes of an initial trade deal between the U.S. and China this week help the outlook for Germany’s export-dependant economy—the eurozone’s largest—in particular, investors say.
WSJ paywalled - https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-wave-o ... 1573140838

So, I guess- trade tensions easing, bond yields surging.
Very interesting that I have to visit this website to find out that something is "slamming" gold and bonds today.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ad Orientem » Thu Nov 07, 2019 4:42 pm

The Wall Street traders are tripping over one another in a mad rush to dump safe assets for stocks because they think the global economy has been saved. I don't trade, but if I did, I would not be rushing back into stocks. I have confidence in Donald Trump. There is not much he can't screw up. Between Trump, Brexit, the ticking debt bomb and our unstable foreign affairs there are enormous opportunities for unpleasant surprises. For now I'm sticking with the HBPP and my smallish VP (VWIAX and silver).
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona » Thu Nov 07, 2019 5:01 pm

I'm a gold buyer at $1435 with my 2020 Roth IRA money.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Nov 07, 2019 5:22 pm

What I'd love in Jan on my annual rebalance is the opposite of what happened last year. With the drop in stocks late last year I was not able to lock in gains and sell some stocks in a rebalance.

This year I'd be able to rebalance a bit out of stocks if this uptrend holds.
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