The GOLD scream room
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Re: The GOLD scream room
Haha. Well it is not surprising that the sellers came out today. Shorting gold at $1350 has been the easiest money in the world for damn near a decade now. But we still closed the day even, so they sellers couldn't actually drop the price. If the buyers keep pounding on the ceiling and don't give up, they will break through. The sellers showed a bit of weakness today, they couldn't get the job done and bring it down. I really think a lot rides on the Fed next week, not just in gold but in all markets. With the market expecting a 50bp drop in the next month, I mean just Powell saying the wrong adjunctive once could cause massive commotion. I wouldn't be surprised if it was a volatile week all around. Buckle up those seatbelts!
- dualstow
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Re: The GOLD scream room
Or just don’t look for 12 months.
(Says the guy who regularly posts prices, I admit. )
(Says the guy who regularly posts prices, I admit. )
- Cortopassi
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Re: The GOLD scream room
Holy crap! Is this a breakout?
Re: The GOLD scream room
I think where it goes on the next pullback is quite important. If it never goes below $1250, that's good.
Re: The GOLD scream room
My gold stake has grown all by itself from 10% to 11%. I am well pleased. I'm going let it run.
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- dualstow
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Re: The GOLD scream room
I was wondering the same thing.
Cortopassi wrote: ↑Thu Jun 20, 2019 7:52 am$1250 or $1350? $1250 would be a pretty large pullback at this point
Re: The GOLD scream room
Yes this is a legit breakout from an 8 year base. If we drop much below $1350 then it's a failed breakout and is likely to drop fast. So we don't want to see below $1350 ever. However, it would not be a surprise at all if we pulled back and retested that $1350 in the coming weeks. I think that would be healthy to cement in the support level with a successful retest. It's also possible we could rocket up if we get a short squeeze and never retest. I think about $1400 is when the short squeeze is likely to really pick up steam.
My only concern is that bonds (TLT) and the S&P are both testing breakouts today as well (though it looks like the S&P is rejecting at the moment). Though both of them are a bit more extended and not coming out of as nice of a base as gold, it is very strange to see all 3 testing breakouts on the same day. I suspect 1 or 2 will be false breakouts and prairie dog it. Which will it be? Gold certainly seems to be the most decisive breakout today, so that's a good sign for gold. Though, who knows with this administration, every day there is potential for surprise, haha.
My only concern is that bonds (TLT) and the S&P are both testing breakouts today as well (though it looks like the S&P is rejecting at the moment). Though both of them are a bit more extended and not coming out of as nice of a base as gold, it is very strange to see all 3 testing breakouts on the same day. I suspect 1 or 2 will be false breakouts and prairie dog it. Which will it be? Gold certainly seems to be the most decisive breakout today, so that's a good sign for gold. Though, who knows with this administration, every day there is potential for surprise, haha.
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Re: The GOLD scream room
Gold has gone up a bit since I last checked, solid. But I'm finding it more awesome that 'prairie dogging' is a technical analysis term, since I'm more familiar with it as poop humor.
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
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Re: The GOLD scream room
Almost 6.5 years since gold has been at this level. March 2014. Wow. Hope it holds. About freaking time.
Re: The GOLD scream room
Original ETF gold I bought (IAU) just went from red to green for the first time in a long time.Cortopassi wrote: ↑Thu Jun 20, 2019 4:01 pm Almost 6.5 years since gold has been at this level. March 2014. Wow. Hope it holds. About freaking time.
Physical gold, unfortunately, is still a bit underwater as some of the first ones I bought were for $1725/ounce. (Correction: Even my physical gold hit the break even point yesterday)
Assuming the huge jump today was because of the threat of war with Iran. Despite the gains, I would rather that didn't happen.
Last edited by jacksonM on Fri Jun 21, 2019 6:37 am, edited 2 times in total.
Re: The GOLD scream room
I think it's mostly about the Fed to be honest. I think that's why everything is rallying, expectations of Fed easing. However, I'm not so sure Fed easing is really a good thing for stocks long term, it's just buying a little bit of time is all.
Re: The GOLD scream room
Wow, Quicken doth say my gold ROI is > 0%.
Weird....
Weird....
Re: The GOLD scream room
And now it's up over $1410. Not gonna complain!
- Kriegsspiel
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Re: The GOLD scream room
Same here. Bought some gold back in 2012 for close to $1800, but overall it's at 0% nominal. If you look at Tyler's heat map, 2013-2015 really brutalized gold's returns.
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
Re: The GOLD scream room
Yes, I remember the brutalization of gold very well but strangely enough it increased my confidence in the PP because it showed me that one sector can endure a complete meltdown without ruining the whole portfolio. I think I was down, at the most, about 2% overall during that period.Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Fri Jun 21, 2019 8:47 amSame here. Bought some gold back in 2012 for close to $1800, but overall it's at 0% nominal. If you look at Tyler's heat map, 2013-2015 really brutalized gold's returns.
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Re: The GOLD scream room
I'm still down 5-6% overall and very envious of you breakeven guys.
Re: The GOLD scream room
Well I think it's safe to say bonds was a false breakout, as they spent one day above resistance and then plunged back down very powerfully today. Stocks also rejected, though not with as much strength as bonds. So Krieg got himself not one, but TWO prairie dogs today, lol. So far gold is the only of the three assets to be holding their breakout. It does seem to be getting some hesitation at $1400 though, I think getting some space above that level is key to trigger the more stubborn shorts to cover.
Re: The GOLD scream room
This sounds like coverage of a horse race!pmward wrote: ↑Fri Jun 21, 2019 2:31 pm Well I think it's safe to say bonds was a false breakout, as they spent one day above resistance and then plunged back down very powerfully today. Stocks also rejected, though not with as much strength as bonds. So Krieg got himself not one, but TWO prairie dogs today, lol. So far gold is the only of the three assets to be holding their breakout. It does seem to be getting some hesitation at $1400 though, I think getting some space above that level is key to trigger the more stubborn shorts to cover.
It's kind of fun to listen to stuff like this even though it's not even slightly doing justice to the market forces that are driving these trends - which are likely far more complex than any one person understands. It's why trying to manipulate prices produces results that even people who spend lifetimes studying it can't predict.
Very few people seem to understand this...Harry Browne did, very well.
Re: The GOLD scream room
Haha, yeah I'm just looking at the short term on this. The only reason for short term moves is pretty much all speculation. There's no real reason or logic behind it, it's all greed and fear. The complexity behind what is causing that speculation is out of my wheelhouse, all I can do is examine and analyze the results of the speculation, not the underlying cause. At any point in time there are large institutional shorts and longs for every asset, and there are certain levels that both will throw in the towel and levels that both will double down. These short term levels are fairly predictable and do follow repeatable patterns. Short term sentiment can also change on a dime though, there is no such thing as a risk free trade. But sometimes that short term sentiment turns into long term sentiment and that is what benefits us here. Mainly the reason I post this stuff now is because I am extremely bullish on gold, and the negativity on gold the last few months here has made no sense to me since from a technical standpoint every signal I use is bullish on gold and has been for months now. While most have been pessimistic on gold, I've been slowly watching the steam build up since back in the winter, just waiting for the moment the top blows off, haha.sophie wrote: ↑Sat Jun 22, 2019 1:26 pmThis sounds like coverage of a horse race!pmward wrote: ↑Fri Jun 21, 2019 2:31 pm Well I think it's safe to say bonds was a false breakout, as they spent one day above resistance and then plunged back down very powerfully today. Stocks also rejected, though not with as much strength as bonds. So Krieg got himself not one, but TWO prairie dogs today, lol. So far gold is the only of the three assets to be holding their breakout. It does seem to be getting some hesitation at $1400 though, I think getting some space above that level is key to trigger the more stubborn shorts to cover.
It's kind of fun to listen to stuff like this even though it's not even slightly doing justice to the market forces that are driving these trends - which are likely far more complex than any one person understands. It's why trying to manipulate prices produces results that even people who spend lifetimes studying it can't predict.
Very few people seem to understand this...Harry Browne did, very well.
Re: The GOLD scream room
I did go slow (and am still low gold - GBish for part of retirement savings), but a solid percentage of my Gold still underwater.
Started buying IAU in 2012. To date, purchase price between around 16.5 (2012) and 11 (2016).
Interesting first few years of Gold and LTT ownership. 2013 sucked (switched from Bogleheadish ~65/35 in 2012)
But yes, nice to be overall Gold positive.
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Re: The GOLD scream room
If the last month in gold doesn't have your head spinning, you are a very calm person.
Sunday night, oh yeah, Trump is pulling back on all the China tariff talk, gold is going to get hammered. And it did.
Tuesday morning -- what changed??
Sunday night, oh yeah, Trump is pulling back on all the China tariff talk, gold is going to get hammered. And it did.
Tuesday morning -- what changed??