The GOLD scream room

[Cortopassi]

Do I hear 1350?
hey-oooooooohhhh!!

We are here once again, My physical gold return since I started buying in 2008 is dead even (sigh...)

[Libertarian666]

Do I hear 1350?
hey-oooooooohhhh!!

We are here once again, My physical gold return since I started buying in 2008 is dead even (sigh...)

I really don't want gold to take off right now, as I'm going to be buying quite a bit.

Probably a fair amount will be paper gold like IAU because I expect a big stock market drop after which I will establish something more like a 4x25 PP, and physical is too inconvenient and expensive in that situation. I'm certainly not buying bonds or stocks right here.

[ochotona]

Do I hear 1350?
hey-oooooooohhhh!!

We are here once again, My physical gold return since I started buying in 2008 is dead even (sigh...)

If it takes a big dive from here, do look into taking a tax loss and rebuying it. See if you can cover the cost of re-acquisition with the tax loss.

[dualstow]

When you do buy stocks, Libertarian666, will it be your first time?

...
I really don't want gold to take off right now, as I'm going to be buying quite a bit.

Probably a fair amount will be paper gold like IAU because I expect a big stock market drop after which I will establish something more like a 4x25 PP, and physical is too inconvenient and expensive in that situation. I'm certainly not buying bonds or stocks right here.

[Libertarian666]

When you do buy stocks, Libertarian666, will it be your first time?

...
I really don't want gold to take off right now, as I'm going to be buying quite a bit.

Probably a fair amount will be paper gold like IAU because I expect a big stock market drop after which I will establish something more like a 4x25 PP, and physical is too inconvenient and expensive in that situation. I'm certainly not buying bonds or stocks right here.

No, I ran a standard 4x25 PP during the 1990's.

[boglerdude]

whats your stock buying trigger and how long will you wait...

[Libertarian666]

whats your stock buying trigger and how long will you wait...

I haven't developed a detailed plan yet because I don't have the cash yet.

My general plan is to try to capitalize on a panic like 2008 in stocks and bonds, which I will be able to do without tax consequences because the funds are in a retirement account.

If it never happens, then I'll be "stuck" with gold, which is fine with me.

[ochotona]

https://jimrickards.blogspot.com/2018/0 ... y.html?m=1

[Libertarian666]

https://jimrickards.blogspot.com/2018/0 ... y.html?m=1

Sounds reasonable, but of course timing is always very difficult.

[buddtholomew]

Gold is useless and the PP has been very disappointing.
If stocks continue to fall I am switching to a BH portfolio.
This is what we have been waiting for and the PP declines like everything else. Sad but true.

[Cortopassi]

Deleveraging? Selling gold to cover margin calls? Manipulation? Locusts?

Here's the problem. Most no one still knows about actually owning gold as an investment. I heard, on the radio this morning, "with interest rates rising and stocks falling, where are there alternative places to invest?" I shit you not, the answer that came out of whoever was talking was "How about Bitcoin?"

Gold is off the radar for the majority. I haven't heard the gold price stated on the radio reports in a long time.

It is still the only asset positive for 2018.

[buddtholomew]

Perhaps few investors own gold since it doesn’t offer the safety aspects we expect. The portfolio dropped like a rock, where was gold? Nowhere.

[Libertarian666]

Gold is useless and the PP has been very disappointing.
If stocks continue to fall I am switching to a BH portfolio.
This is what we have been waiting for and the PP declines like everything else. Sad but true.

By all means, go right ahead and switch to a BH portfolio.

You'll be back as soon as we have another 2008-2009, with a lot less money.

[buddtholomew]

Gold is useless and the PP has been very disappointing.
If stocks continue to fall I am switching to a BH portfolio.
This is what we have been waiting for and the PP declines like everything else. Sad but true.

By all means, go right ahead and switch to a BH portfolio.

You'll be back as soon as we have another 2008-2009, with a lot less money.

Why, because of gold? Haha...down another 1.25% now.
Keep dreaming buddy.
Explain how I quadrupled my portfolio since 2008/9 using BH 70/30 allocation.

[Libertarian666]

Gold is useless and the PP has been very disappointing.
If stocks continue to fall I am switching to a BH portfolio.
This is what we have been waiting for and the PP declines like everything else. Sad but true.

By all means, go right ahead and switch to a BH portfolio.

You'll be back as soon as we have another 2008-2009, with a lot less money.

Why, because of gold? Haha...down another 1.25% now.
Keep dreaming buddy.
Explain how I quadrupled my portfolio since 2008/9 using BH 70/30 allocation.

You need an explanation of how you have had good results with a stock-heavy allocation starting from the bottom of the biggest stock market drop since the 1930's?

If that's really true, I think you need to find a financial advisor who can explain the facts of life to you.

[buddtholomew]

By all means, go right ahead and switch to a BH portfolio.

You'll be back as soon as we have another 2008-2009, with a lot less money.

Why, because of gold? Haha...down another 1.25% now.
Keep dreaming buddy.
Explain how I quadrupled my portfolio since 2008/9 using BH 70/30 allocation.

You need an explanation of how you have had good results with a stock-heavy allocation starting from the bottom of the biggest stock market drop since the 1930's?

If that's really true, I think you need to find a financial advisor who can explain the facts of life to you.

I’m asking you to explain Mr. I bought 1 gold coin at 300.
Read! And you call yourself a technical writer HAHA.

[Cortopassi]

We all had to know, using history as the guide, that this smash yesterday would cause some volatility, but by the end of the day the market was going to be green.

And that is as good a reason as any for gold to go down. That we are still decently above $1300 is positive. Not that we can't go lower. This market bubble has taken 9 years to inflate. Not going to pop in two days.

[buddtholomew]

We all had to know, using history as the guide, that this smash yesterday would cause some volatility, but by the end of the day the market was going to be green.

And that is as good a reason as any for gold to go down. That we are still decently above $1300 is positive. Not that we can't go lower. This market bubble has taken 9 years to inflate. Not going to pop in two days.

Corto, I am comfortable with equity volatility as I expect stocks to gyrate wildly. What concerns me is how the portfolio performed as a whole when the SHTF scenario played out. Flight to quality was there, but gold failed again. Worse than losing money is thinking you are protected when in fact you are not.

I don’t want the stock market to tumble so that PP investors are ultimately rewarded. Even with the recent sell off my 70/30 allocation YTD is handily beating the PP.

[stuper1]

Budd, do you ever look at historical PP returns? As with any portfolio, the PP has times when it has drawdowns. The difference to most portfolios is that the drawdowns are smaller and less time is required to recover from them. Gold/bonds don't necessarily help the PP on the very day that stocks drop. Often it takes some time before the lack of correlation kicks in.

Sure, gold returns have stunk for the past several years. However, from 2000-2010, gold saved the day. These things aren't simple. Gold essentially has no correlation to stocks. Therefore, on a day that stocks go down, gold can go up or down also, essentially at random. Over longer periods of time, however, that lack of correlation can help the overall portfolio. You won't get that with a BH portfolio, especially if you use a total bond market fund, which has a lot of corporate bonds that are correlated to stocks except not as volatile.

[Cortopassi]

I wouldn't consider Friday and Monday a SHTF scenario just yet. Flight to safety is what, bonds? Ok, TLT went up a bit yesterday, and back down today. Dollar? Didn't do much during the selloff. What does that leave?

To me that leaves talking heads positioning this as an even bigger buy the dip, this is a sale mantra. No one is thinking about gold...yet.

Gold YTD is still positive, while no other asset is. Sure, it's not positive by the same % others are negative, but it is providing a buffer.

I don't believe your 70/30 is beating gold YTD.

[buddtholomew]

You guys make good points.
Problem for me is I have only been invested in the PP since 2011 so I don’t have any recollection of golds performance from 2000-2010.
All I have to go on is perhaps a small gain after loss harvesting GLD in 2016, offsetting equity gains and reinvesting in IAU.

Corto, check VWILX/VEIEX which is 55% of my portfolio and handily beating gold YTD AND the PP (even after the selloff).

I just don’t think the portfolio is that remarkable.
I want to love it but it continues to let me down.

[Libertarian666]

Why, because of gold? Haha...down another 1.25% now.
Keep dreaming buddy.
Explain how I quadrupled my portfolio since 2008/9 using BH 70/30 allocation.

You need an explanation of how you have had good results with a stock-heavy allocation starting from the bottom of the biggest stock market drop since the 1930's?

If that's really true, I think you need to find a financial advisor who can explain the facts of life to you.

I’m asking you to explain Mr. I bought 1 gold coin at 300.
Read! And you call yourself a technical writer HAHA.

Ok, here's the explanation.

Anyone who put a lot of money into the stock market at the bottom of the severe decline in 2009 has done very well.
So you are right that if you have cash to buy at the bottom, you will do fine.
How will you know when the bottom is in, and will you actually buy then?

For those who don't know when the bottom is in, the PP does a better job of smoothing out volatility than the BH portfolios do.

(I say this as someone who doesn't run a PP, so I don't have a dog in this hunt.)

[Libertarian666]

You guys make good points.
Problem for me is I have only been invested in the PP since 2011 so I don’t have any recollection of golds performance from 2000-2010.
All I have to go on is perhaps a small gain after loss harvesting GLD in 2016, offsetting equity gains and reinvesting in IAU.

Corto, check VWILX/VEIEX which is 55% of my portfolio and handily beating gold YTD AND the PP (even after the selloff).

I just don’t think the portfolio is that remarkable.
I want to love it but it continues to let me down.

You bought gold in the year of the all-time top and are disappointed?

I think you need a longer perspective. It's not like the previous results aren't available.

[Cortopassi]

You guys make good points.
Problem for me is I have only been invested in the PP since 2011 so I don’t have any recollection of golds performance from 2000-2010.
All I have to go on is perhaps a small gain after loss harvesting GLD in 2016, offsetting equity gains and reinvesting in IAU.

Corto, check VWILX/VEIEX which is 55% of my portfolio and handily beating gold YTD AND the PP (even after the selloff).

I just don’t think the portfolio is that remarkable.
I want to love it but it continues to let me down.

I guess I always thought a 70/30 is 70% in broad market equities and 30% in long term bonds? Both the funds you list are international.

[buddtholomew]

You guys make good points.
Problem for me is I have only been invested in the PP since 2011 so I don’t have any recollection of golds performance from 2000-2010.
All I have to go on is perhaps a small gain after loss harvesting GLD in 2016, offsetting equity gains and reinvesting in IAU.

Corto, check VWILX/VEIEX which is 55% of my portfolio and handily beating gold YTD AND the PP (even after the selloff).

I just don’t think the portfolio is that remarkable.
I want to love it but it continues to let me down.

I guess I always thought a 70/30 is 70% in broad market equities and 30% in long term bonds? Both the funds you list are international.

70/30 stocks/bonds
Usually the bonds are intermediate term.