The GOLD scream room

[dualstow]

No Buddburst today

Looks like gold and TLT are going down...not as fast as stocks.

There's a boglehead thread about John Bogle saying it makes sense to sell stocks down 5 or 10% if it helps one sleep. Hmm. This is in the context of his belief that we're not going to see great market returns in the years to come.

For those who are 4x25 this might be a great opportunity to do nothing. Have another pina colada.

[PP67]

FIW According to Bloomberg's Billionaire Index, The world’s wealthiest people have, in aggregate, lost 2 percent of their wealth so far this year...

[Cortopassi]

Well that was an interesting day.

If the pattern holds from recent history, tomorrow will be a spectacular up day for stocks, while bonds and gold will be trashed and the PP slope for the year will continue down.

But I have no better alternative for sure. About the only thing I am considering is going back to a higher % in cash since it is paying near 2% now at Ally. 25% in cash would have been a good buffer today.

Days like this certainly make me wonder about all the little tweaks I have made over the past couple years, which helped last year but are hurting this year.

[buddtholomew]

The PP (or any balanced portfolio for that matter) is not immune to rising interest rates and tighter money.

Corto, this time is different
I see further declines in stocks as an 800 point drop in the DOW will panic most investors to sell.
Rates are going higher hell or high water and will exacerbate the declines in stocks even further than expected.
My guess is that rates pull-back in late October, equities stabilize and gold begins its ascent.
Probably will happen the other way then...

[dualstow]

I see further declines in stocks as an 800 point drop in the DOW will panic most investors to sell.

I agree. Anything could happen, but I feel tomorrow will see another slaughter or else a partial recovery, leading the semi-panicked to say ok, I recouped some of Wednesday’s losses and to sell by 3:00pm EST, i.e. an afternoon slaughter.

[eufo]

Is it wrong I love the slaughter days? It hurts my portfolio too, but it's interesting at least.

[jhogue]

Sage advice from Alexander Hamilton, The Federalist, No. 12:

“The prosperity of commerce is now perceived and acknowledged, by all enlightened statesmen, to be the most useful as well as the most productive source of national wealth; and has accordingly become a primary object of their political cares. By multiplying the means of gratification, by promoting the introduction and circulation of the precious metals, (those darling objects of human avarice and enterprise), it serves to vivify and invigorate the channels of industry, and to make them flow with greater activity and copiousness. The assiduous merchant, the laborious husbandman, the active mechanic, and the industrious manufacturer, all orders of men look forward with eager expectation and growing alacrity to this pleasing reward of their toils.”



In other words, stop looking through the wrong end of the telescope. Buy gold for the long run.

[dualstow]

Is it wrong I love the slaughter days? It hurts my portfolio too, but it's interesting at least.

Atl least we don’t have to wonder anymore.

[Cortopassi]

As expected, no stock selloff follow through.

[Cortopassi]

What the hell?

[buddtholomew]

What the hell?

Mr. short squeeze has made an appearance.
Similar should happen to LTT’s as they are heavily shorted too.

[dualstow]

As expected, no stock selloff follow through.

It's not even noon yet, and the S&P's down another 1%, but...if you say so.

[buddtholomew]

As expected, no stock selloff follow through.

It's not even noon yet, and the S&P's down another 1%, but...if you say so.

Main difference today is other PP assets are lively.

[Cortopassi]

As expected, no stock selloff follow through.

It's not even noon yet, and the S&P's down another 1%, but...if you say so.

I checked at this point, and the Dow was green....

[buddtholomew]

Now this is the response I expected from the PP.
Am I wrong to expect this reaction in GLD and TLT with equities down > 1000 DOW points in the last 2 days?

Could have saved me a lot of heartache kicking in a little sooner, but better later than never.

[Kbg]

Now this is the response I expected from the PP.
Am I wrong to expect this reaction in GLD and TLT with equities down > 1000 DOW points in the last 2 days?

Could have saved me a lot of heartache kicking in a little sooner, but better later than never.

Budd,

I'm very disappointed in you. With LTTs up 1.20% and Gold up 2.76% as of this typing, I was anticipating a joyous Buddburst.

[Ugly_Bird]

Now this is the response I expected from the PP.

Now?... Do LTT and Gold always respond NOW? Sometimes it takes days, weeks or even months.
"Now" in this case doesn't meant instantaneous.
Be patient, my friend :-)

[dualstow]

Now this is the response I expected from the PP.

Now?... Do LTT and Gold always respond NOW? Sometimes it takes days, weeks or even months.
"Now" in this case doesn't meant instantaneous.
Be patient, my friend :-)

I think that's an important point to remember. We should never expect a tit-for-tat "balancing" on a daily basis. And in fact, long bonds were dropping for a few days before this upswing. We need a sustained if delayed balancing.

[Ad Orientem]

I see further declines in stocks as an 800 point drop in the DOW will panic most investors to sell.

I agree. Anything could happen, but I feel tomorrow will see another slaughter or else a partial recovery, leading the semi-panicked to say ok, I recouped some of Wednesday’s losses and to sell by 3:00pm EST, i.e. an afternoon slaughter.

Well you nailed that one.

[dualstow]

Thanks. Broken clock, no talent involved.

[Xan]

Thanks. Broken clock, no talent involved.

Except that 3:00PM EST is 4:00PM EDT, and EDT is in effect at the moment. For a few more weeks. :-)

[dualstow]

Thanks. Broken clock, no talent involved.

Except that 3:00PM EST is 4:00PM EDT, and EDT is in effect at the moment. For a few more weeks. :-)

So, I *don't* get the broken clock award of the day?
Waaah

[boglerdude]

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewto ... 0&t=260171

Always folks who need to chime in and say "gold is dumb" w/out providing explanations

[dualstow]

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewto ... 0&t=260171

Always folks who need to chime in and say "gold is dumb" w/out providing explanations

Gold is a tough sell over there. An impossible sell.

[Libertarian666]

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewto ... 0&t=260171

Always folks who need to chime in and say "gold is dumb" w/out providing explanations

Gold is a tough sell over there. An impossible sell.

I've tried to wake them up a couple of times by pointing out that Berkshire Hathaway also doesn't pay interest or dividends, so that "isn't an investment" either according to their very limited understand of investing.

Of course all I get back is spluttering about the value of the portfolio Berkshire Hathaway holds, even though in fact the shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway have no claim on that portfolio. The only way they can make money is by selling their shares to someone else who also has no claim on the underlying assets.

How exactly is that different from owning gold? Other than that with gold, you actually DO have the underlying asset.