The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

Moderator: Global Moderator

pmward
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1731
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2019 4:39 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:32 am

Personally, I think it's because the market is sniffing deflation... and they are going back to the old trusty deflation handbook. Long bonds are *the* asset right now and nothing else matters. If the virus starts to take hold in the U.S. I expect to see gold react a bit more. I also think it will react more if/when the Fed announces rate cuts or QE. But I'm not surprised to see it consolidating right now in the short term while bonds are running like they stole something. From a long term perspective, it's probably better for it to consolidate and digest its recent gains a bit. If it kept screaming higher like bonds are it would also put gold at risk of a blowoff top.
Jack Jones
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 522
Joined: Mon Aug 24, 2015 3:12 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Jack Jones » Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:39 am

Screen Shot 2020-02-28 at 10.38.04 AM.png
Screen Shot 2020-02-28 at 10.38.04 AM.png (10.12 KiB) Viewed 7186 times
A bit light on Gold at the moment. Considering doing my IRA contributions early (I usually wait until the last minute) to get back in range.
Libertarian666
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 5994
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 1969 6:00 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Fri Feb 28, 2020 11:43 am

I think we must be in the end times.
I say that because I sold a chunk yesterday just before today's plunge.
This is against all previous history, which would predict that it would soar after I sold.
User avatar
Ugly_Bird
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 230
Joined: Sun Mar 08, 2015 8:06 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ugly_Bird » Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:44 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 8:20 am
I was wondering what your thoughts are over the past 2-3 days where gold has languished.
Is is possible that gold is loosing because the investors want to free up cash to buy stocks, which can stop plummeting any moment if the fear goes away?
Libertarian666
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 5994
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 1969 6:00 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Fri Feb 28, 2020 1:44 pm

Ugly_Bird wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:44 pm
Cortopassi wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 8:20 am
I was wondering what your thoughts are over the past 2-3 days where gold has languished.
Is is possible that gold is loosing because the investors want to free up cash to buy stocks, which can stop plummeting any moment if the fear goes away?
I don't think that's the explanation. I think speculators are selling to meet margin calls in the stock market, but of course now there are also margin calls in the gold market.

But once everything settles out I think gold will resume its uptrend.
User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3338
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Mar 03, 2020 11:39 am

Wow. If you could only predict this stuff.

Image
Libertarian666
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 5994
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 1969 6:00 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:24 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 11:39 am
Wow. If you could only predict this stuff.

Image
I can predict it.
It will fluctuate!
boglerdude
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1313
Joined: Wed Aug 10, 2016 1:40 am
Contact:

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by boglerdude » Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:08 am

"Today the world’s gold stock is about 170,000 metric tons. If all of this gold were melded together, it
would form a cube of about 68 feet per side. (Picture it fitting comfortably within a baseball infield.) At
$1,750 per ounce – gold’s price as I write this – its value would be $9.6 trillion. Call this cube pile A.

Let’s now create a pile B costing an equal amount. For that, we could buy all U.S. cropland (400
million acres with output of about $200 billion annually), plus 16 Exxon Mobils (the world’s most
profitable company, one earning more than $40 billion annually). After these purchases, we would
have about $1 trillion left over for walking-around money (no sense feeling strapped after this buying
binge).

Can you imagine an investor with $9.6 trillion selecting pile A over pile B?
Beyond the staggering valuation given the existing stock of gold, current prices make today’s annual
production of gold command about $160 billion. Buyers – whether jewelry and industrial users,
frightened individuals, or speculators – must continually absorb this additional supply to merely
maintain an equilibrium at present prices.

A century from now the 400 million acres of farmland will have produced staggering amounts of corn,
wheat, cotton, and other crops – and will continue to produce that valuable bounty, whatever the
currency may be. Exxon Mobil will probably have delivered trillions of dollars in dividends to its
owners and will also hold assets worth many more trillions (and, remember, you get 16 Exxons). The
170,000 tons of gold will be unchanged in size and still incapable of producing anything. You can
fondle the cube, but it will not respond.

Admittedly, when people a century from now are fearful, it’s likely many will still rush to gold. I’m
confident, however, that the $9.6 trillion current valuation of pile A will compound over the century at
a rate far inferior to that achieved by pile B."
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14231
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Mar 05, 2020 6:53 am

boglerdude’s post is an unattributed quote of Warren Buffett.
The Exxon Mobil part is out of date as of 2020. O0
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3338
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:17 am

A century from now we can be getting all our power from Mr. Fusion, and making our own food in our 3D food printer in the kitchen. Farmland is all national parks and Exxon is long gone.

Meanwhile I've cornered the market for gold jewelry for 100 years and am a gazillionaire. I also give tours of the shiny metal cube for $10 a pop.
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14231
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Mar 05, 2020 9:13 am

Image
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
User avatar
Xan
Administrator
Administrator
Posts: 4392
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2012 1:51 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Xan » Thu Mar 05, 2020 9:22 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:17 am
A century from now we can be getting all our power from Mr. Fusion, and making our own food in our 3D food printer in the kitchen. Farmland is all national parks and Exxon is long gone.

Meanwhile I've cornered the market for gold jewelry for 100 years and am a gazillionaire. I also give tours of the shiny metal cube for $10 a pop.
Wasn't there a Twilight Zone episode where some robbers with stolen gold put themselves into suspended animation for 100 years, then try to hike through the desert to civilization with their gold? They die along the way. A passerby later finds them and notes that all the gold has been worthless since it was discovered how to manufacture it artificially.

It's hard to predict the future!
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14231
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Mar 05, 2020 9:41 am

Gold: worthless
a Hundred-Year Nap: Priceless
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14231
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:48 am

Jeffrey Gundlach just said that gold is near all-time highs with other currencies, and that he expects it will hit an all-time high relative to the dollar. (cnbc)
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3338
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:39 pm

Xan wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 9:22 am
Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:17 am
A century from now we can be getting all our power from Mr. Fusion, and making our own food in our 3D food printer in the kitchen. Farmland is all national parks and Exxon is long gone.

Meanwhile I've cornered the market for gold jewelry for 100 years and am a gazillionaire. I also give tours of the shiny metal cube for $10 a pop.
Wasn't there a Twilight Zone episode where some robbers with stolen gold put themselves into suspended animation for 100 years, then try to hike through the desert to civilization with their gold? They die along the way. A passerby later finds them and notes that all the gold has been worthless since it was discovered how to manufacture it artificially.

It's hard to predict the future!
Yes. Good episode!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Rip_Van_Winkle_Caper
User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3338
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:17 pm

I can't recall ever seeing a 45 degree up and to the right like this, without some dip along the way. I don't know whether that is good or bad, but good for today.

Image
Libertarian666
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 5994
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 1969 6:00 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Sun Mar 08, 2020 5:59 pm

$1700 on Kitco.
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14231
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Sun Mar 08, 2020 6:37 pm

Libertarian666 wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 5:59 pm
$1700 on Kitco.
Whoa!
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
pmward
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1731
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2019 4:39 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Sun Mar 08, 2020 7:38 pm

And and stock future and oil futures are absolutely tanking. Going to be another fun, exciting day tomorrow, haha.
User avatar
sophie
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1959
Joined: Mon Apr 23, 2012 7:15 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by sophie » Sun Mar 08, 2020 10:20 pm

dualstow wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 6:37 pm
Libertarian666 wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 5:59 pm
$1700 on Kitco.
Whoa!
Yeee ha!!!!!!!!!! Hang on tight everyone, here we go!

Just don't panic, is all. Ignore the pundits, keep that dry powder handy and your fingers away from the "trade" button.
User avatar
Hal
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1349
Joined: Tue May 03, 2011 1:50 am

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Hal » Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:47 am

Meanwhile, down under....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e6N2oOT ... dex=4&t=0s
(happy I come across the PP nearly 10 years ago!)
Attachments
Screen Shot 2020-03-09 at 6.40.53 pm.png
Screen Shot 2020-03-09 at 6.40.53 pm.png (74.52 KiB) Viewed 5957 times
Screen Shot 2020-03-09 at 6.35.41 pm.png
Screen Shot 2020-03-09 at 6.35.41 pm.png (64.76 KiB) Viewed 5957 times
Libertarian666
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 5994
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 1969 6:00 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:26 am

sophie wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 10:20 pm
dualstow wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 6:37 pm
Libertarian666 wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 5:59 pm
$1700 on Kitco.
Whoa!
Yeee ha!!!!!!!!!! Hang on tight everyone, here we go!

Just don't panic, is all. Ignore the pundits, keep that dry powder handy and your fingers away from the "trade" button.
Back down to up only $3 on the day, at $1676.
pmward
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1731
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2019 4:39 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:59 am

Libertarian666 wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:26 am
Back down to up only $3 on the day, at $1676.
Yeah, we've officially hit that public "SELL EVERYTHING!!!" point in the meltdown.
User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3338
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:03 am

pmward wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:59 am
Libertarian666 wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:26 am
Back down to up only $3 on the day, at $1676.
Yeah, we've officially hit that public "SELL EVERYTHING!!!" point in the meltdown.
Except bonds?
pmward
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1731
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2019 4:39 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:07 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:03 am
pmward wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:59 am
Libertarian666 wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:26 am
Back down to up only $3 on the day, at $1676.
Yeah, we've officially hit that public "SELL EVERYTHING!!!" point in the meltdown.
Except bonds?
Money has to go somewhere, and usually in those sell everything panic modes it winds up in bonds.
Post Reply