The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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I Shrugged
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by I Shrugged » Wed May 18, 2022 8:51 pm

Mike59 wrote:
Wed May 18, 2022 8:34 pm
To me gold is more insurance against financial calamity and less an inflation hedge.

I like the last post about small amounts of inflation being an "annoyance". We live in a highly manipulated market where everything remains controlled and stable, the Fed appears to have the steering wheel. We may have bigger troubles ahead when world governments have to take on and pay back debt at higher interest rates and we start to see defaults.

Some predict there would be a "dollar crisis" and look out below for the value of both cash and bonds should that happen. Along those lines the purchasing power of the dollar may drop substantially or erode over time (like it has) and the gold price may appear the same (or even go down) but you remain protected by owing it and not being in dollars . This is the illusion of stability from the Fed, it's a dirty game.

Me too.
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Desert
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Desert » Thu May 19, 2022 9:20 am

Same here, Mike. I look at Gold as a combination of insurance + largely uncorrelated portfolio damper. A 10-20 percent slice of gold hasn't helped nor hurt returns significantly, so it's the best kind of insurance that comes at low/no cost.

By the way, I wanted to give a bit of praise to dualstow for gold's rise today. I'm holding dualstow responsible for gold's return in 2022, and I just like to encourage good behavior when I see it.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by barrett » Thu May 19, 2022 12:35 pm

I concur with Desert. Heck of a job, Dually!
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dualstow
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu May 19, 2022 1:24 pm

I’ll see you both later at my tar and feathering O0
let 2022 be the year of GOLD
Supreme Court overturns Roe v Wade. You heard it here third, or fourth
$100 million worth of crypto has been stolen in another major hack - cnbc
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ppnewbie » Sat May 21, 2022 1:16 am

I believe gold has a CAGR of around 7.5% over the last 5 years. So it seems to be working reasonably well.
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I Shrugged
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by I Shrugged » Mon May 23, 2022 9:27 pm

ppnewbie wrote:
Sat May 21, 2022 1:16 am
I believe gold has a CAGR of around 7.5% over the last 5 years. So it seems to be working reasonably well.
Stop making sense. Everyone wants to piss and moan about the last two months or whatever.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ppnewbie » Mon May 23, 2022 9:36 pm

I Shrugged wrote:
Mon May 23, 2022 9:27 pm
ppnewbie wrote:
Sat May 21, 2022 1:16 am
I believe gold has a CAGR of around 7.5% over the last 5 years. So it seems to be working reasonably well.
Stop making sense. Everyone wants to piss and moan about the last two months or whatever.
I was once watching some variety show in the late 70’s and I remember a person who could mimic what another person was saying. He was an imperceptible amount behind the lead talker. Even though he looked like he was anticipating the persons words, he was actually following.

I see nearly everyone on TV doing the same. It’s super great fun to watch but who really knows what is going to happen.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by joypog » Mon May 23, 2022 11:34 pm

I Shrugged wrote:
Mon May 23, 2022 9:27 pm
ppnewbie wrote:
Sat May 21, 2022 1:16 am
I believe gold has a CAGR of around 7.5% over the last 5 years. So it seems to be working reasonably well.
Stop making sense. Everyone wants to piss and moan about the last two months or whatever.
what was the CAGR of bitcoin over the past 5 years?
I have no clue. Ask me next May.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ppnewbie » Tue May 24, 2022 12:47 am

joypog wrote:
Mon May 23, 2022 11:34 pm
I Shrugged wrote:
Mon May 23, 2022 9:27 pm
ppnewbie wrote:
Sat May 21, 2022 1:16 am
I believe gold has a CAGR of around 7.5% over the last 5 years. So it seems to be working reasonably well.
Stop making sense. Everyone wants to piss and moan about the last two months or whatever.
what was the CAGR of bitcoin over the past 5 years?
Based off of gbtc I think it’s 32.83%.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by joypog » Tue May 24, 2022 9:30 am

ppnewbie wrote:
Tue May 24, 2022 12:47 am
joypog wrote:
Mon May 23, 2022 11:34 pm
I Shrugged wrote:
Mon May 23, 2022 9:27 pm
ppnewbie wrote:
Sat May 21, 2022 1:16 am
I believe gold has a CAGR of around 7.5% over the last 5 years. So it seems to be working reasonably well.
Stop making sense. Everyone wants to piss and moan about the last two months or whatever.
what was the CAGR of bitcoin over the past 5 years?
Based off of gbtc I think it’s 32.83%.
once my finances settle down, I think I'm going to throw 1% at a BTC fund just to see where it goes. Even if it ends up being a tulip, at least it's a ticket to enjoy the ride with all the other crypto zombies.

interesting article...https://www.bankrate.com/investing/bitcoin-etfs/ .....I'm most definitely NOT a bleeding edge guy, so it makes sense to wait a bit longer before throwing some cash at this joyride.
I have no clue. Ask me next May.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue May 24, 2022 10:15 am

joypog wrote:
Tue May 24, 2022 9:30 am
Even if it ends up being a tulip

cute O0
let 2022 be the year of GOLD
Supreme Court overturns Roe v Wade. You heard it here third, or fourth
$100 million worth of crypto has been stolen in another major hack - cnbc
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ppnewbie » Tue May 24, 2022 10:25 am

dualstow wrote:
Tue May 24, 2022 10:15 am
joypog wrote:
Tue May 24, 2022 9:30 am
Even if it ends up being a tulip

cute O0
Put one percent GBTC in a HBPP in a backtest and see how it juices your returns over the last 5 years.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri Jun 10, 2022 7:05 am

Down to the 1830s (US$/ounce). I’m tempted to add to my allocation which is still on the light side of (PP + VP)
let 2022 be the year of GOLD
Supreme Court overturns Roe v Wade. You heard it here third, or fourth
$100 million worth of crypto has been stolen in another major hack - cnbc
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri Jun 10, 2022 12:48 pm

dualstow wrote:
Fri Jun 10, 2022 7:05 am
Down to the 1830s (US$/ounce). I’m tempted to add to my allocation which is still on the light side of (PP + VP)
aaand it’s back to 1875. That was a very brief window.
Edit: although i see random year krugs are on sale at Apmex.
let 2022 be the year of GOLD
Supreme Court overturns Roe v Wade. You heard it here third, or fourth
$100 million worth of crypto has been stolen in another major hack - cnbc
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Desert » Fri Jun 10, 2022 1:35 pm

dualstow wrote:
Fri Jun 10, 2022 12:48 pm
dualstow wrote:
Fri Jun 10, 2022 7:05 am
Down to the 1830s (US$/ounce). I’m tempted to add to my allocation which is still on the light side of (PP + VP)
aaand it’s back to 1875. That was a very brief window.
Edit: although i see random year krugs are on sale at Apmex.
I was impressed with how much the gold market responded to the rumor that you may be buying.

But seriously, nice little move today. It'll be interesting to see if it continues, and whether the treasury/tips market starts to show a higher predicted inflation.

"It's transitory" is beginning to feel a bit like "it's just a flesh wound."
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri Jun 10, 2022 1:39 pm

O0 O0 Love that black knight.
I did order a krug today.
let 2022 be the year of GOLD
Supreme Court overturns Roe v Wade. You heard it here third, or fourth
$100 million worth of crypto has been stolen in another major hack - cnbc
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Desert » Fri Jun 10, 2022 1:52 pm

For some odd reason, every discussion lately is triggering a Monty Python reference in my brain. I might be losing my mind.

Good job snagging another krug today.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri Jun 10, 2022 2:33 pm

Nobody expects the snaggish acquisition

(Ok that was a stretch, but I did my best).
let 2022 be the year of GOLD
Supreme Court overturns Roe v Wade. You heard it here third, or fourth
$100 million worth of crypto has been stolen in another major hack - cnbc
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Desert
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Desert » Fri Jun 10, 2022 2:35 pm

dualstow wrote:
Fri Jun 10, 2022 2:33 pm
Nobody expects the snaggish acquisition

(Ok that was a stretch, but I did my best).
:D
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Vil » Tue Jun 14, 2022 1:44 am

dualstow wrote:
Fri Jun 10, 2022 1:39 pm
O0 O0 Love that black knight.
I did order a krug today.
Guys, what's the spread you 'enjoy' as of now with Apmex (?) ?

The dealer I use (=Tavex, one of the biggest ones in EU, and leader in Northern Europe) is now on 2.7% for some of the bullion coins..
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Jun 14, 2022 8:10 am

2.7% would be brilliant. I think I paid about 4.4
Apmex’s quoted spot often seems US$10 higher than what i see on Yahoo or a.j.p.m., before you even get to their markup. I use them because they get the gold to my door. O0 And sometimes I just have to have that new 2022 coin instead of random year. They are a pleasure to work with. I bought in person at a local store when I was starting out, just buying random year coins.
let 2022 be the year of GOLD
Supreme Court overturns Roe v Wade. You heard it here third, or fourth
$100 million worth of crypto has been stolen in another major hack - cnbc
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Jack Jones » Tue Jun 14, 2022 9:59 am

dualstow wrote:
Tue Jun 14, 2022 8:10 am
2.7% would be brilliant. I think I paid about 4.4
Apmex’s quoted spot often seems US$10 higher than what i see on Yahoo or a.j.p.m., before you even get to their markup. I use them because they get the gold to my door. O0 And sometimes I just have to have that new 2022 coin instead of random year. They are a pleasure to work with. I bought in person at a local store when I was starting out, just buying random year coins.
One downside of newly minted coins is that you lose some, shall we say, plausible deniability? In other words, you cannot claim to have purchased a 2022 coin in 2001. However, if you received a 2001 coin in 2022, you can say you obtained it anywhere between 2001-2022.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Jun 14, 2022 10:18 am

Never thought of that! All my coins are going to heirs. I do have some krugs from the 70s and 80s.
let 2022 be the year of GOLD
Supreme Court overturns Roe v Wade. You heard it here third, or fourth
$100 million worth of crypto has been stolen in another major hack - cnbc
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by I Shrugged » Tue Jun 14, 2022 3:50 pm

Right now gold is the best horse at the glue factory.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Kbg » Wed Jun 15, 2022 9:15 am

It is...one thing that's bugging me though. I monitor short term asset correlations pretty closely and gold is not going the direction we would like it to.

But yes, it is the least sucky. :-)
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